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  WI-Marquette: Hillary+12 vs. Walker
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Author Topic: WI-Marquette: Hillary+12 vs. Walker  (Read 7474 times)
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semocrat08
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« Reply #25 on: April 18, 2015, 07:35:15 am »

How are the Republicans going to win the general again?

By nominating a true conservative like Ted Cruz to energize the "silent majority" base and convincing the nation that Hillary is another Kenyan Muslim who wasn't born here.
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TJ in Oregon
TJ in Cleve
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« Reply #26 on: April 18, 2015, 09:16:47 am »

Walker is going through a bit of a rough patch in Wisconsin with the budget cuts and him presumptavely running for president. Wisconsinites never wanted President Walker to begin with; if we wanted any of the Wisconsin Republicans to run it was Paul Ryan. If he had to run for re-election again any time soon, Walker would probably lose. The state's economic numbers and budget look rather ugly at the moment.

Now, I voted for Scott Walker, but he doesn't look like the answer for president right now.

I heard on the radio today that Wisconsin's unemployment rate dropped to like 4.6 percent, placing us well below the national average. I think this has more to do with Wisconsin stubbornly voting blue in presidential elections.

Maybe it's because I live in Madison and only hear the anger directed at Walker, but I never got the impression the current budget is particularly popular. One of the fastest ways a Republican can tick off squishy moderates is by cutting funding to education. I agree he'd probably be down in Wisconsin without that, but down 12 is a lot. Wisconsin, like most states, is more Democratic in presidential elections than midterms, but I don't see any reason why that trend would be particularly strong here compared to other places. If anything I'd expect it to be less important since we're such a high turnout state in general.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #27 on: April 18, 2015, 10:06:44 am »

Maybe it's because I live in Madison and only hear the anger directed at Walker, but I never got the impression the current budget is particularly popular. One of the fastest ways a Republican can tick off squishy moderates is by cutting funding to education. I agree he'd probably be down in Wisconsin without that, but down 12 is a lot. Wisconsin, like most states, is more Democratic in presidential elections than midterms, but I don't see any reason why that trend would be particularly strong here compared to other places. If anything I'd expect it to be less important since we're such a high turnout state in general.

If Scott Walker's recall election was on November 6, 2012, do you really think he would've survived (even against the rather weak Tom Barrett)? Admittedly, there probably was a minority of largely centrist voters that rejected the notion of a recall for political reasons. Scott Walker won by about 170k votes with 2.5m voters in that election. However, President Obama won by over 210k with 3m voters and Tammy Baldwin won by almost 170k with roughly the same 3m voters.

Even beyond Wisconsin's typically high turnout, I think there is something fundamentally different in a presidential election compared with any other election. It seems like there's also a change in the very attitude of the electorate. If Scott Walker had to face a recall election on the same ballot as President Obama, I think his removal from office would have been successful.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #28 on: February 27, 2017, 11:09:21 pm »

Wisconsin is totally out of the GOP's hands minus an extremely unlikely landslide.

No.
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Xing
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« Reply #29 on: February 28, 2017, 12:37:09 am »

How are the Republicans going to win the general again?

By nominating a true conservative like Ted Cruz to energize the "silent majority" base and convincing the nation that Hillary is another Kenyan Muslim who wasn't born here.

Almost got it right. Wink

But this interesting, since I'm not sure why Wisconsin polling always underestimates Republicans. This happens every time, and it'll almost certainly happen again in 2018. 

Hmmm...


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/wi/wisconsin_mccain_vs_obama-549.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/wi/wisconsin_senate_feingold_vs_johnson-1577.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/governor/wi/wisconsin_governor_walker_vs_barrett-1184.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/wi/wisconsin_romney_vs_obama-1871.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/wisconsin_senate_race.html

They may have in 2014 and 2016, but polls in general had a Democratic bias those years, so it's not really a Wisconsin thing.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #30 on: February 28, 2017, 01:42:09 am »

^Fair enough. But the D bias in 2016 was quite... extreme. Polling in general has become much worse.

As it was in several states. Either way, my point is that polling errors are fairly unpredictable, and can easily change from year to year.
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