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  WI-Marquette: Hillary+12 vs. Walker (search mode)
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Author Topic: WI-Marquette: Hillary+12 vs. Walker  (Read 7563 times)
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xingkerui
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Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

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« on: April 17, 2015, 06:43:17 pm »

Well, so much for Walker being favored in Wisconsin in the general election. Hillary wouldn't beat him by 12 unless she won in a landslide, but polls haven't shown him doing any better in Wisconsin than in any of the real swing states.
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xingkerui
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Posts: 18,714
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Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P
« Reply #1 on: February 28, 2017, 12:37:09 am »

How are the Republicans going to win the general again?

By nominating a true conservative like Ted Cruz to energize the "silent majority" base and convincing the nation that Hillary is another Kenyan Muslim who wasn't born here.

Almost got it right. Wink

But this interesting, since I'm not sure why Wisconsin polling always underestimates Republicans. This happens every time, and it'll almost certainly happen again in 2018. 

Hmmm...


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/wi/wisconsin_mccain_vs_obama-549.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/wi/wisconsin_senate_feingold_vs_johnson-1577.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/governor/wi/wisconsin_governor_walker_vs_barrett-1184.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/wi/wisconsin_romney_vs_obama-1871.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/wisconsin_senate_race.html

They may have in 2014 and 2016, but polls in general had a Democratic bias those years, so it's not really a Wisconsin thing.
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xingkerui
YaBB God
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Posts: 18,714
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P
« Reply #2 on: February 28, 2017, 01:42:09 am »

^Fair enough. But the D bias in 2016 was quite... extreme. Polling in general has become much worse.

As it was in several states. Either way, my point is that polling errors are fairly unpredictable, and can easily change from year to year.
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