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Author Topic: WI-Marquette: Feingold (D) with dominant lead against Sen. Johnson (R)  (Read 5010 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: April 16, 2015, 12:29:17 pm »

54-38 Feingold/Johnson

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/588755160995856384
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #1 on: April 16, 2015, 12:33:31 pm »

YESSSSSSSS
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« Reply #2 on: April 16, 2015, 12:39:28 pm »

that's exciting..
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #3 on: April 16, 2015, 12:47:07 pm »

Wow, this is beginning to look like a "Likely Democratic" race. Johnson is more vulnerable than Mark Kirk.
At this point, Democrats will almost certainly pick up WI, IL and NH. The path for the GOP to keep its Senate majority is getting narrower and narrower...
As for NH, since when does a 1 point lead for a candidate that might not even run mean an almost certain pickup?
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« Reply #4 on: April 16, 2015, 12:47:32 pm »

YESSSSSSSS
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #5 on: April 16, 2015, 12:55:07 pm »

Wow, this is beginning to look like a "Likely Democratic" race. Johnson is more vulnerable than Mark Kirk.
At this point, Democrats will almost certainly pick up WI, IL and NH. The path for the GOP to keep its Senate majority is getting narrower and narrower...
As for NH, since when does a 1 point lead for a candidate that might not even run mean an almost certain pickup?

Exagerrated a bit there, but I assume that Hassan will run. If she decides against a run, this is a Toss-up and lean R at best. Anyway, my thoughts:
1. NH is no longer a swing state, it is trending to the left.
2. Ayotte is not that popular (even among Republicans), while Hassan is really popular.
3. Possible Hillary coattails because the GOP will almost certainly lose NH in 2016.
4. Ayotte is not moderate enough for a state like NH. She doesn't have the same reputation that Mark Kirk has.
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« Reply #6 on: April 16, 2015, 01:00:49 pm »

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/588759551240994817
Quote
Our WI polling: 43/52 Walker approval, 52/43 Clinton lead, Feingold 50 Johnson 41.
« Last Edit: April 16, 2015, 01:02:29 pm by seanNJ9 »Logged

Negusa Nagast 🚀
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« Reply #7 on: April 16, 2015, 01:16:09 pm »

dominating!
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« Reply #8 on: April 16, 2015, 01:19:44 pm »

Wisconsin is quickly becoming the best state in the country.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #9 on: April 16, 2015, 01:30:37 pm »

You know who also had a dominant lead over a vulnerable Republican? Charlie Crist.

Don't respond to this with a page long post about how the two aren't exactly similar. Believe me I know. I just liked drawing the comparison.
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« Reply #10 on: April 16, 2015, 01:38:17 pm »

This is why Wisconsin should be at the top of "Most Likely to party switch" lists.
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« Reply #11 on: April 16, 2015, 01:38:57 pm »

You know who also had a dominant lead over a vulnerable Republican? Charlie Crist.

Don't respond to this with a page long post about how the two aren't exactly similar. Believe me I know. I just liked drawing the comparison.
Crist never lead by 16 though.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #12 on: April 16, 2015, 01:44:58 pm »

You know who also had a dominant lead over a vulnerable Republican? Charlie Crist.

Don't respond to this with a page long post about how the two aren't exactly similar. Believe me I know. I just liked drawing the comparison.
Crist never lead by 16 though.
Correct. He lead by 23.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_FL_1205.pdf
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« Reply #13 on: April 16, 2015, 01:46:24 pm »

You know who also had a dominant lead over a vulnerable Republican? Charlie Crist.

Don't respond to this with a page long post about how the two aren't exactly similar. Believe me I know. I just liked drawing the comparison.
Crist never lead by 16 though.
Correct. He lead by 23.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_FL_1205.pdf

You're making a good point there.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #14 on: April 16, 2015, 02:36:04 pm »

You know who also had a dominant lead over a vulnerable Republican? Charlie Crist.

Don't respond to this with a page long post about how the two aren't exactly similar. Believe me I know. I just liked drawing the comparison.
Crist never lead by 16 though.
Correct. He lead by 23.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_FL_1205.pdf

Wulfric, come on dude, do your homework.
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« Reply #15 on: April 16, 2015, 02:41:45 pm »

Wow, this is beginning to look like a "Likely Democratic" race. Johnson is more vulnerable than Mark Kirk.
At this point, Democrats will almost certainly pick up WI, IL and NH. The path for the GOP to keep its Senate majority is getting narrower and narrower...
As for NH, since when does a 1 point lead for a candidate that might not even run mean an almost certain pickup?

Exagerrated a bit there, but I assume that Hassan will run. If she decides against a run, this is a Toss-up and lean R at best. Anyway, my thoughts:
1. NH is no longer a swing state, it is trending to the left.
2. Ayotte is not that popular (even among Republicans), while Hassan is really popular.
3. Possible Hillary coattails because the GOP will almost certainly lose NH in 2016.
4. Ayotte is not moderate enough for a state like NH. She doesn't have the same reputation that Mark Kirk has.

From the polling I've seen, Mark Kirk is more or less anonymous. So I wouldn't say he has that reputation. He's definitely done some damage (as of late) with some of the ludicrous things he's said.
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« Reply #16 on: April 16, 2015, 02:59:42 pm »

Go Russ!!
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« Reply #17 on: April 16, 2015, 03:02:13 pm »

Beautiful.
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #18 on: April 16, 2015, 03:50:10 pm »

God dayum.
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« Reply #19 on: April 16, 2015, 03:56:40 pm »

Yeah, he will not win by this much. But it sure makes Johnson look like the Pryor/Landrieu of the cycle.
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« Reply #20 on: April 16, 2015, 07:11:52 pm »

Yeah, he will not win by this much. But it sure makes Johnson look like the Pryor/Landrieu of the cycle.

Johnson has to be thinking of this right now.



It would be pretty funny if Johnson ended up getting Blanched, since if anyone was expected to be Blanched it was Kirk.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #21 on: April 16, 2015, 07:29:53 pm »

Then again, it's Marquette, which is the most reliable firm ever. So, yeah, things don't look good for Senator Johnson.
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« Reply #22 on: April 16, 2015, 07:50:45 pm »

Johnson is the Santorum of this election cycle. He's getting crushed, because he hasn't been able to sync up his politics to his state like Toomey and Ayotte have.

I give Kirk better odds at holding on at this point, mainly because he's got a weaker opponent.
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Brewer
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« Reply #23 on: April 16, 2015, 07:57:42 pm »

Putting Russ Feingold back in the Senate should make up for the shock and sorrow of seeing Mark Udall leave!
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« Reply #24 on: April 17, 2015, 03:18:25 am »

Exagerrated a bit there, but I assume that Hassan will run. If she decides against a run, this is a Toss-up and lean R at best. Anyway, my thoughts:
1. NH is no longer a swing state, it is trending to the left.
2. Ayotte is not that popular (even among Republicans), while Hassan is really popular.
3. Possible Hillary coattails because the GOP will almost certainly lose NH in 2016.
4. Ayotte is not moderate enough for a state like NH. She doesn't have the same reputation that Mark Kirk has.

I don't even think Hassan will run, but if she does, Ayotte shouldn't be counted out.

1. Wouldn't go that far yet. It tilts D, but it's not a full-on lean.
2. The Senate is more polarizing than the governor's mansion.
3. The right Republican (like a Romney-type or even Rand) can still win here, even against Hillary. Anything can happen.
4. I guarantee you, by the time 2016 is over, Ayotte will be seen as more moderate to NH than Kirk is to IL. And even then, moderation doesn't really matter in NH. We're very independent-minded, and if you make a bit of an effort to compromise, you'll do well here. She's probably closer to Judd Gregg and the Sununus than Susan Collins, but if you give off an air of pragmatism, you can get elected.
« Last Edit: April 17, 2015, 03:36:41 am by Sawx, King in the North »Logged

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