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| |-+  Election What-ifs? (Moderators: Mr. Rogers' Bunkerhood, Apocrypha)
| | |-+  What if the financial crisis happened in Sept. 2007? (search mode)
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Author Topic: What if the financial crisis happened in Sept. 2007?  (Read 2048 times)
TheElectoralBoobyPrize
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« on: April 17, 2015, 08:41:05 pm »

Would it have changed much? I have to think it would've been even worse for the GOP. Unemployment probably would've peaked at 10% right around Election Day. I assume TARP and some type of stimulus still would've happened, but the latter would've taken a different form given that R's had the White House and 49 Senate seats.

Would McCain have still been the nominee? The GOP may have looked for someone with more expertise on economic issues. On the other hand, the nomination would've been seen as so worthless (even more so than IRL) that maybe no one would have challenged him. I doubt Romney would be a serious candidate in this scenario.

I don't think the 2010 midterms would be as bad for the Democrats because unemployment would have begun to fall by then...maybe the Republicans don't even win the House.

I think Obama's reelection is a shoo-in.
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TheElectoralBoobyPrize
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« Reply #1 on: April 18, 2015, 05:24:05 pm »

Obama could attack Clinton for deregulation during her husband's presidency. Obviously, the Democratic primaries would play out differently, but I think the end result might be the same. You could be right though that the liberals go to someone else to challenge her.
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TheElectoralBoobyPrize
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« Reply #2 on: April 22, 2015, 09:34:52 am »

The nominees would have been different.

Hillary would probably have won if experience were more important to primary voters, as in the months after a financial crash. She might've made health care a bigger issue, if there was greater economic insecurity.

Romney would have done better if economic issues were much more important during those early primaries.

Bloomberg might have an opening if both parties are unpopular enough, although this wouldn't be the right candidates to run against.

As for policy, it might have been better for Republicans to have an extra year. Bush did get some credit for responding quickly to the economic catastrophe, so they would have gone for a major stimulus.

Romney's ties to Wall Street would have doomed him. I doubt he would have entered the race.

Actually, I think one Republican who would've done better, though he definitely still wouldn't win the nomination, is Ron Paul. His opposition to the Federal Reserve, TARP, etc. would get him some more traction. In the real timeline, he was mostly just known for his anti-war views, as that was the most salient issue at the time.

As for the extra year, that would've meant unemployment would peak right around the  '08 election (if assume the same trajectory as IRL) and would clearly be on a downward trend at the time of the 2010 elections. It wouldn't be good for the GOP.

Nobody's addressing my point that other Democrats could attack Clinton for policies during her husband's presidency that led to the crisis.


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TheElectoralBoobyPrize
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« Reply #3 on: April 22, 2015, 09:48:01 am »

One other point I'd like to make....people are saying the Democrats would nominate Clinton because of her "experience" and/or wouldn't nominate Obama because of his inexperience, but the experience issue is usually used in a foreign policy context. I don't see domestic issues being front and center, as they would be in my scenario, would help Clinton or hurt Obama.

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