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  Election What-ifs? (Moderators: Kutasoff Hedzoff, Apocrypha)
  What if the financial crisis happened in Sept. 2007? (search mode)
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Author Topic: What if the financial crisis happened in Sept. 2007?  (Read 2184 times)
Mister Mets
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« on: April 21, 2015, 07:07:20 pm »
« edited: May 01, 2015, 10:25:22 pm by Mister Mets »

The nominees would have been different.

Hillary would probably have won if experience were more important to primary voters, as in the months after a financial crash. She might've made health care a bigger issue, if there was greater economic insecurity.

Romney would have done better if economic issues were much more important during those early primaries.

Bloomberg might have an opening if both parties are unpopular enough, although these wouldn't be the right candidates to run against.

As for policy, it might have been better for Republicans to have an extra year. Bush did get some credit for responding quickly to the economic catastrophe, so they would have gone for a major stimulus.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #1 on: May 01, 2015, 10:35:27 pm »

The nominees would have been different.

Hillary would probably have won if experience were more important to primary voters, as in the months after a financial crash. She might've made health care a bigger issue, if there was greater economic insecurity.

Romney would have done better if economic issues were much more important during those early primaries.

Bloomberg might have an opening if both parties are unpopular enough, although this wouldn't be the right candidates to run against.

As for policy, it might have been better for Republicans to have an extra year. Bush did get some credit for responding quickly to the economic catastrophe, so they would have gone for a major stimulus.

Romney's ties to Wall Street would have doomed him. I doubt he would have entered the race.

Actually, I think one Republican who would've done better, though he definitely still wouldn't win the nomination, is Ron Paul. His opposition to the Federal Reserve, TARP, etc. would get him some more traction. In the real timeline, he was mostly just known for his anti-war views, as that was the most salient issue at the time.

As for the extra year, that would've meant unemployment would peak right around the  '08 election (if assume the same trajectory as IRL) and would clearly be on a downward trend at the time of the 2010 elections. It wouldn't be good for the GOP.

Nobody's addressing my point that other Democrats could attack Clinton for policies during her husband's presidency that led to the crisis.

There would have been some arguments about Bill Clinton and deregulation, although that might be too complex to become an issue in the primaries. Obama might have been able to make it part of his message of the need for change, but the primary was close enough that a small shift could have led to Hillary winning the nomination.

I'm unaware of any election in which a candidate lost a primary because of ties to Wall Street. So I don't think that would have been an issue with Romney. I think he would have gained more votes due to his reputation as a guy who understands financial issues.

You also assume that the economic trends would have been consistent regardless of who held elected office, although that gets more complicated since different decisions would have been made with different parties in charge.
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