Last time each state voted more D/R than the national vote

[ElectionsGuy]

Instead of using state streaks to see trends over time, we should use the margin that the states voted by and calculate how much more D/R they are compared to the overall national vote. Put this in Presidential Election Trends if its a better placement.

R>90% = 2012
R>80% = 2008
R>70% = 2004
R>60% = 2000
R>50% = 1996
R>40% = 1992
R>30% = 1988
D>30% = 1984
D>40% = 1980
D>50% = 1976
D>60% = 1972
D>70% = 1968
D>80% = 1964
D>90% = 1960 or earlier

More Republican:

Virginia - 2008
Colorado - 2004
Nevada - 2004
Iowa - 2000
New Hampshire - 2000
New Mexico - 2000
Oregon - 2000
Wisconsin - 2000
New Jersey - 1992
Delaware - 1988
Maine - 1988
Michigan - 1988
Connecticut - 1984
California - 1980
Washington - 1980
Illinois - 1976
Vermont - 1976
Hawaii - 1972
Maryland - 1972
Massachusetts - 1956
New York - 1956
Rhode Island - 1956
Minnesota - 1952
Pennsylvania - 1948
Washington DC - Never

More Democratic:

Same scale, but reversed.

Ohio - 2004
Arkansas - 1996
Louisiana - 1996
West Virginia - 1996
Missouri - 1992
Montana - 1988
South Dakota - 1988
Tennessee - 1984
Alabama - 1980
Georgia - 1980
Kentucky - 1980
Mississippi - 1980
North Carolina - 1980
South Carolina - 1980
Florida - 1976
Texas - 1976
Alaska - 1964
Oklahoma - 1956
Arizona - 1948
Utah - 1948
Idaho - 1936
North Dakota - 1936
Nebraska - 1932
Indiana - 1924
Wyoming - 1924*
Kansas - 1916

*The Coolidge - LaFollete margin was less the national Coolidge - Davis margin, but if you count solely R/D margins than its 1916 for Wyoming.

Pennsylvania surprised me. Even though its by single digits almost every time, its always more Democratic.

[ElectionsGuy]

Updating in 2016.

More Republican

R>90% = 2016
R>80% = 2012
R>70% = 2008
R>60% = 2004
R>50% = 2000
R>40% = 1996
R>30% = 1992
D>30% = 1988
D>40% = 1984
D>50% = 1980
D>60% = 1976
D>70% = 1972
D>80% = 1968
D>90% = 1964 or earlier

Virginia - 2008
Colorado - 2004
Nevada - 2004
New Mexico - 2000
Oregon - 2000
New Jersey - 1992
Delaware - 1988
Maine - 1988
Connecticut - 1984
California - 1980
Washington - 1980
Illinois - 1976
Vermont - 1976
Hawaii - 1972
Maryland - 1972
Massachusetts - 1956
New York - 1956
Rhode Island - 1956
District of Columbia - Never

More Democratic:

D>90% = 2016
D>80% = 2012
D>70% = 2008
D>60% = 2004
D>50% = 2000
D>40% = 1996
D>30% = 1992
R>30% = 1988
R>40% = 1984
R>50% = 1980
R>60% = 1976
R>70% = 1972
R>80% = 1968
R>90% = 1964 or earlier

Iowa - 2012 (broke 16 year streak)
Michigan - 2012 (broke 28 year streak)
Minnesota - 2012 (broke 64 year streak!!)
New Hampshire - 2012 (broke 16 year streak)
Pennsylvania - 2012 (broke 68 year streak!!)
Wisconsin - 2012 (broke 16 year streak)
Ohio - 2004
Arkansas - 1996
Louisiana - 1996
West Virginia - 1996
Missouri - 1992
Montana - 1988
South Dakota - 1988
Tennessee - 1984
Alabama - 1980
Georgia - 1980
Kentucky - 1980
Mississippi - 1980
North Carolina - 1980
South Carolina - 1980
Florida - 1976
Texas - 1976
Alaska - 1964
Oklahoma - 1956
Arizona - 1948
Utah - 1948
Idaho - 1936
North Dakota - 1936
Nebraska - 1932
Indiana - 1924
Kansas - 1916 (century streak)
Wyoming - 1916 (century streak)

[AGA]

It is now clear that Minnesota voted to the right of the nation in 2016.

[ElectionsGuy]

It is now clear that Minnesota voted to the right of the nation in 2016.

Yep.

[mianfei]

Virginia - 2008
Colorado - 2004
Nevada - 2004
New Mexico - 2000
Oregon - 2000
New Jersey - 1992
Delaware - 1988
Maine - 1988
Connecticut - 1984
California - 1980
Washington - 1980
Illinois - 1976
Vermont - 1976
Hawaii - 1972
Maryland - 1972
Massachusetts - 1956
New York - 1956
Rhode Island - 1956
District of Columbia - Never

Iowa - 2012 (broke 16 year streak)
Michigan - 2012 (broke 28 year streak)
Minnesota - 2012 (broke 64 year streak)
New Hampshire - 2012 (broke 16 year streak)
Pennsylvania - 2012 (broke 68 year streak)
Wisconsin - 2012 (broke 16 year streak)
Ohio - 2004
Arkansas - 1996
Louisiana - 1996
West Virginia - 1996
Missouri - 1992
Montana - 1988
South Dakota - 1988
Tennessee - 1984
Alabama - 1980
Georgia - 1980
Kentucky - 1980
Mississippi - 1980
North Carolina - 1980
South Carolina - 1980
Florida - 1976
Texas - 1976
Alaska - 1964
Oklahoma - 1956
Arizona - 1948
Utah - 1948
Idaho - 1936
North Dakota - 1936
Nebraska - 1932
Indiana - 1924
Kansas - 1916 (century streak)
Wyoming - 1916 (century streak)

I’d worked these out a couple of months before to do Wikipedia work – I didn’t know these were here.

Given that, there are only two surprises. I had not realised bellwether Florida had never voted more Democratic than the nation since Carter’s election in 1976. It’s true that except for the 1984 and 1988 elections the percentage has never been in double figures – Florida was more Republican relative to the nation in 1964 when the northern counties went to Goldwater on the Civil Rights issue – but even when Bill Clinton and Barack Obama won the state they won by less than their margin in the national popular vote.

Tennessee in 1984 is a very mild surprise, because I had assumed large swings to Reagan with the loss of Carter’s powerful personal vote in the south.

The two century streaks are expected, but it might be noted here that in only nine elections (three very marginal) has Wyoming or any of the four Plains States of Kansas, Nebraska and the Dakotas ever voted more Democratic than the nation at-large, and in each case there are identifiable non-permanent causes:

• 1896 – “free silver” supported by Plains farmers but strongly opposed by the industrial Northeast
• 1900 and 1908 – “favorite son” vote for William Jennings Bryan in Nebraska
• 1916 – opposition to war very strong in the Plains and Mountain West and drove even loyal 1912 Taft voters to Wilson
• 1928 – North Dakota voted more Democratic than the nation by 7.08 percentage points due to Smith’s appeal among German-descent farmers. Notably, Smith won Logan, McIntosh and Mercer Counties, which had never voted Democratic before and have never done so since 1940.
• 1932 and 1936 – “Dust Bowl” and severe drought, along with very unpredictable winters even for the region, beginning in 1930 caused very powerful swings even relative to nation at-large
• 1972 – powerful personal vote for George McGovern in his home state of South Dakota allowed that state to vote 14 percentage points more Democratic that nation in huge Republican landslide
• 1988 – major drought and farm crisis caused normally highly Republican Plains States to swing heavily to Dukakis

[DPKdebator]

I like how these maps look a lot like something that an actual election could produce.

[ElectionsGuy]

Post-2020

Minnesota and New Hampshire shift left of the nation, while Nevada shifts right of the nation for the first time since 2004. While I don't have the districts here because they change every 10 years, I think it's notable that for the first time since splitting their electoral votes, Nebraska's 2nd will vote to the left of the nation. Under an even PV map with uniform swing, Donald Trump wins 311 Electoral Votes to Joe Biden's 227. This is compared to what would've been 320-212 in 2016. However, the tipping point state does appear like it will be more right of the nation (at least 3% more Republican, will get moreso as Biden grows his PV lead) than in 2016 (when it was 2.9%).

More Republican

R>90% = 2020
R>80% = 2016
R>70% = 2012
R>60% = 2008
R>50% = 2004
R>40% = 2000
R>30% = 1996
D>30% = 1992
D>40% = 1988
D>50% = 1984
D>60% = 1980
D>70% = 1976
D>80% = 1972
D>90% = 1968 or earlier

Minnesota - 2016
New Hampshire - 2016
Virginia - 2008
Colorado - 2004
New Mexico - 2000
Oregon - 2000
New Jersey - 1992
Delaware - 1988
Maine - 1988
Connecticut - 1984
California - 1980
Washington - 1980
Illinois - 1976
Vermont - 1976
Hawaii - 1972
Maryland - 1972
Massachusetts - 1956
New York - 1956
Rhode Island - 1956
District of Columbia - Never

More Democratic:

D>90% = 2020
D>80% = 2016
D>70% = 2012
D>60% = 2008
D>50% = 2004
D>40% = 2000
D>30% = 1996
R>30% = 1992
R>40% = 1988
R>50% = 1984
R>60% = 1980
R>70% = 1976
R>80% = 1972
R>90% = 1968 or earlier

Nevada - 2016
Iowa - 2012
Michigan - 2012
Pennsylvania - 2012
Wisconsin - 2012
Ohio - 2004
Arkansas - 1996
Louisiana - 1996
West Virginia - 1996
Missouri - 1992
Montana - 1988
South Dakota - 1988
Tennessee - 1984
Alabama - 1980
Georgia - 1980
Kentucky - 1980
Mississippi - 1980
North Carolina - 1980
South Carolina - 1980
Florida - 1976
Texas - 1976
Alaska - 1964
Oklahoma - 1956
Arizona - 1948
Utah - 1948
Idaho - 1936
North Dakota - 1936
Nebraska - 1932
Indiana - 1924
Kansas - 1916
Wyoming - 1916

[Samof94]

Post-2020

Minnesota and New Hampshire shift left of the nation, while Nevada shifts right of the nation for the first time since 2004. While I don't have the districts here because they change every 10 years, I think it's notable that for the first time since splitting their electoral votes, Nebraska's 2nd will vote to the left of the nation. Under an even PV map with uniform swing, Donald Trump wins 311 Electoral Votes to Joe Biden's 227. This is compared to what would've been 320-212 in 2016. However, the tipping point state does appear like it will be more right of the nation (at least 3% more Republican, will get moreso as Biden grows his PV lead) than in 2016 (when it was 2.9%).

More Republican

R>90% = 2020
R>80% = 2016
R>70% = 2012
R>60% = 2008
R>50% = 2004
R>40% = 2000
R>30% = 1996
D>30% = 1992
D>40% = 1988
D>50% = 1984
D>60% = 1980
D>70% = 1976
D>80% = 1972
D>90% = 1968 or earlier

Minnesota - 2016
New Hampshire - 2016
Virginia - 2008
Colorado - 2004
New Mexico - 2000
Oregon - 2000
New Jersey - 1992
Delaware - 1988
Maine - 1988
Connecticut - 1984
California - 1980
Washington - 1980
Illinois - 1976
Vermont - 1976
Hawaii - 1972
Maryland - 1972
Massachusetts - 1956
New York - 1956
Rhode Island - 1956
District of Columbia - Never

More Democratic:

D>90% = 2020
D>80% = 2016
D>70% = 2012
D>60% = 2008
D>50% = 2004
D>40% = 2000
D>30% = 1996
R>30% = 1992
R>40% = 1988
R>50% = 1984
R>60% = 1980
R>70% = 1976
R>80% = 1972
R>90% = 1968 or earlier

Nevada - 2016
Iowa - 2012
Michigan - 2012
Pennsylvania - 2012
Wisconsin - 2012
Ohio - 2004
Arkansas - 1996
Louisiana - 1996
West Virginia - 1996
Missouri - 1992
Montana - 1988
South Dakota - 1988
Tennessee - 1984
Alabama - 1980
Georgia - 1980
Kentucky - 1980
Mississippi - 1980
North Carolina - 1980
South Carolina - 1980
Florida - 1976
Texas - 1976
Alaska - 1964
Oklahoma - 1956
Arizona - 1948
Utah - 1948
Idaho - 1936
North Dakota - 1936
Nebraska - 1932
Indiana - 1924
Kansas - 1916
Wyoming - 1916

Ironically, Kansas looked competitive for a few hours on election night.