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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: TJ in Oregon, Virginiá)
  Which demographic subgroups will Hillary win against Bush?
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Poll
Question: Which demographic subgroups will Hillary win against Bush?
#1Moderates
#2Independents
#3Men
#4Married
#5White
#6Hispanics
#7Asians
#8Protestants
#9Catholics
#10Jews
#11RSA: More than weekly
#12RSA: Weekly
#13RSA: Monthly
#14RSA: A few times a year
#15Evangelicals/born-again Christians
#1630-39 years old
#1740-49 years old
#1850-64 years old
#1965 and older
#20non-first time voters
#21Heterosexuals
#22Not a high school graduate
#23High school graduate
#24Some college education
#25College graduate
#26Postgraduate education
#27FI: Under $15,000
#28FI: $15,000–30,000
#29FI: $30,000–50,000
#30FI: $50,000–75,000
#31FI: $75,000–100,000
#32FI: $100,000–150,000
#33FI: $150,000–200,000
#34FI: Over $200,000
#35Northeast
#36Midwest
#37South
#38West
#39Suburban
#40Rural
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Author Topic: Which demographic subgroups will Hillary win against Bush?  (Read 1414 times)
solarstorm
solarstorm2012
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« on: April 19, 2015, 05:52:25 pm »

I dismissed the obvious answers, such as women, blacks or urban.

RSA = Religious service attendance
FI    = Family income
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Oak Hills
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« Reply #1 on: April 19, 2015, 06:05:03 pm »

Moderates, independents, Hispanics, Asians, Catholics, Jews 30-49 years old, non-first-time-voters, RSA monthly and less than monthly, all education levels, FI <$75,000, Northeast, Midwest, West, suburban. 
As things stand right now.  They could easily change.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #2 on: April 19, 2015, 06:25:12 pm »

Moderates, independents, Hispanics, Asians, Catholics, Jews 30-49 years old, non-first-time-voters, RSA monthly and less than monthly, all education levels, FI <$75,000, Northeast, Midwest, West, suburban. 
As things stand right now.  They could easily change.

This.
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solarstorm
solarstorm2012
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« Reply #3 on: April 19, 2015, 06:28:30 pm »

Obama managed to win men and >$200,000 in 2008. Plus, he managed to win heterosexuals both times.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #4 on: April 19, 2015, 06:31:50 pm »

Oh, I didn't notice Oak Hills' post didn't include heterosexuals. I'm including that too.
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Oak Hills
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« Reply #5 on: April 19, 2015, 06:43:45 pm »

Meant to include heterosexuals, just forgot.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #6 on: April 19, 2015, 07:17:32 pm »
« Edited: April 19, 2015, 07:37:36 pm by Likely Voter »

I dismissed the obvious answers, such as women, blacks or urban.

Actually most of the things you listed are obvious:

Dem Groups
Moderates
Hispanic
Asian
Jews
RSA Few Times A year
Not HS grad
Post Grad
FI under 15 & under 30
Northeast
West

GOP Groups
Men
White
Protestants
RSA Weekly & More than weekly
Evangelical
65 and older
Over $200k
South
Rural

'swing' groups (w/ Obama 2012 margin):
Independents -5
Catholic +2
Attend Church Monthly +9
30-39 +7
40-49 -2
50-64 -5
Heterosexuals --
HS grad +3
some college +1
college grad -4
$50-100k -6
$100-200k -5
Midwest ? (couldn't find 2012 number but was +9 in 08)
Suburb -2

Predicted Hillary swing groups
Catholics
Attend Church Monthly
30-39
40-49
Heterosexuals
HS grad
some college
$50-100k
Midwest
Suburb
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Thunderbird is the word
Zen Lunatic
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« Reply #7 on: April 19, 2015, 07:27:07 pm »

I wonder if Jeb would win the Catholic vote, this would be the first time in history that a Protestant Democrat was facing off against a Catholic Republican.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
sjkqw
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« Reply #8 on: April 19, 2015, 07:35:47 pm »
« Edited: April 19, 2015, 07:37:59 pm by SMilo »

I wonder if Jeb would win the Catholic vote, this would be the first time in history that a Protestant Democrat was facing off against a Catholic Republican.

First Catholic Republican in the top spot, period. Christie or Rubio could technically do so as well (or Santorum or Jindal I suppose). Seeing as they lost it by just 2 points in '12 plus with it trending towards them, I'd be pretty disappointed if they lost it. They won it in '04 for the first time I believe before Democrats made large gains with Hispanics in '08
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bronz4141
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« Reply #9 on: April 19, 2015, 07:37:25 pm »

Moderates, independents, Hispanics, Asians, Catholics, Jews 30-49 years old, non-first-time-voters, RSA monthly and less than monthly, all education levels, FI <$75,000, Northeast, Midwest, West, suburban. 
As things stand right now.  They could easily change.
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heatmaster
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« Reply #10 on: April 20, 2015, 08:33:12 am »

You are not serious? If you are sicko of course, if you are a paedo yeah sure!😮 & you want a bullet to the back of the head, burned alive or castrated!
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PR
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« Reply #11 on: April 20, 2015, 10:24:58 am »

You are not serious? If you are sicko of course, if you are a paedo yeah sure!😮 & you want a bullet to the back of the head, burned alive or castrated!

haha wtf
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #12 on: April 20, 2015, 11:40:11 am »

All of them
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Mr. Illini
liberty142
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« Reply #13 on: April 20, 2015, 01:15:45 pm »

You are not serious? If you are sicko of course, if you are a paedo yeah sure!😮 & you want a bullet to the back of the head, burned alive or castrated!

mods pls ban
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VPH
vivaportugalhabs
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« Reply #14 on: April 20, 2015, 01:53:32 pm »

Jeb Bush is Catholic. I sincerely doubt Hillary can win the Catholic vote unless the Hispanic Catholic turnout is super high.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #15 on: April 20, 2015, 04:17:58 pm »

You are not serious? If you are sicko of course, if you are a paedo yeah sure!😮 & you want a bullet to the back of the head, burned alive or castrated!

jao
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shua
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« Reply #16 on: April 20, 2015, 11:27:38 pm »

Jeb Bush is Catholic. I sincerely doubt Hillary can win the Catholic vote unless the Hispanic Catholic turnout is super high.

If Republicans can get about 35% or more of the Hispanic vote (which Jeb would), they'll win Catholics.

Hillary will win moderates but not independents.
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