Which GOP candidate has the best shot of winning (assuming they run) and why?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Which Republican candidate declared or assumed to run has the best chance of getting the nomination and why?

[Matty]

Rubio. I just can't see Bush winning with all the data showing how unpopular he is.

It matters VERY little who the big wig elites in the republican part like. When those country clubbers go to the polls, they are counted as one person, just like everyone else. The majority of republican primary voters look at bush and smell a rat. Rubio, on the other hand, strikes a good balance.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Rubio. I just can't see Bush winning with all the data showing how unpopular he is.

It matters VERY little who the big wig elites in the republican part like. When those country clubbers go to the polls, they are counted as one person, just like everyone else. The majority of republican primary voters look at bush and smell a rat. Rubio, on the other hand, strikes a good balance.

Yeah, I'm thinking us here in Florida are going to decide basically which of the two are going home, it's do or die for Rubio and Bush here, and the data suggests at least for right now we're leaning towards Rubio more than Bush.

[Torie]

The entire list are losers other than perhaps Bush (if he overcomes a series of hurdles), and Rubio (if he can demonstrate gravitas over time).

[Bull Moose Base]

Rubio. I just can't see Bush winning with all the data showing how unpopular he is.

It matters VERY little who the big wig elites in the republican part like. When those country clubbers go to the polls, they are counted as one person, just like everyone else. The majority of republican primary voters look at bush and smell a rat. Rubio, on the other hand, strikes a good balance.

Yeah, I'm thinking us here in Florida are going to decide basically which of the two are going home, it's do or die for Rubio and Bush here, and the data suggests at least for right now we're leaning towards Rubio more than Bush.

Polling shows Florida preferring Bush over Rubio actually. Also, one if not both of Bush and Rubio should be out before Florida.

[King]

Rand

[SteveRogers]

Rubio. I just can't see Bush winning with all the data showing how unpopular he is.

It matters VERY little who the big wig elites in the republican part like. When those country clubbers go to the polls, they are counted as one person, just like everyone else. The majority of republican primary voters look at bush and smell a rat. Rubio, on the other hand, strikes a good balance.

History shows this to be the opposite of true. Mitt Romney would like a word with you.

[Ebsy]

Walker. (normal)

[Likely Voter]

The entire list are losers other than perhaps Bush (if he overcomes a series of hurdles), and Rubio (if he can demonstrate gravitas over time).

Essentially this. The GOP needs a candidate that can make inroads into some segments of the Obama coalition of non-whites, youngs, women, moderates, and LGBT.  None of the hard right folks can do this.

[Blair]

Yeah looking at the record the Establishment republican always wins, in fact the democrats in picking Obama, Clinton, Carter and Mcgovern appear to be more likely to pick an anti-establishment candidate   

2012-Romney, establishment candidate
2008-Mccain, heir to the nomination, relative establishment apart from Giuliani (who imploded) 
2000- Bish, definition of the establishment.
1996- Dole, senate majority leader, need I say more?
1992- Bush, VP and saw off right wing challenge.
1988- Bush, again establishment
1980- Reagan, may be the only anti-establishment but still heir after 1976 and weak field
1976- best chance at winning as an insurgent, but Ford still won

[King]

Yeah looking at the record the Establishment republican always wins, in fact the democrats in picking Obama, Clinton, Carter and Mcgovern appear to be more likely to pick an anti-establishment candidate   

2012-Romney, establishment candidate
2008-Mccain, heir to the nomination, relative establishment apart from Giuliani (who imploded) 
2000- Bish, definition of the establishment.
1996- Dole, senate majority leader, need I say more?
1992- Bush, VP and saw off right wing challenge.
1988- Bush, again establishment
1980- Reagan, may be the only anti-establishment but still heir after 1976 and weak field
1976- best chance at winning as an insurgent, but Ford still won

The establishment is getting weaker every four years. Romney with a huge endorsement and dollar advantage only barely was winning until brute force took his opponents out of the race. If Santorum and Gingrich hadn't divided their own conservative base, Romney might have lost. Even after they were all out, Romney was still under <70% in California and Texas uncontested and gave up 40% to Ron Paul as the only other option in Virginia.