Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
February 15, 2019, 03:54:32 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: New features added! Click here for more information. Click here to configure new features.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  Election Archive
| | |-+  All Archived Boards
| | | |-+  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
| | | | |-+  IA-Gravis: Hillary with a slight lead
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: IA-Gravis: Hillary with a slight lead  (Read 4022 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 47,932
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: April 21, 2015, 07:36:59 am »

... except against Condoleezza Rice (but I have no clue why they polled her):

43-40 Rice/Clinton
44-43 Clinton/Paul
44-43 Clinton/Huckabee
43-40 Clinton/Bush
45-42 Clinton/Rubio
42-39 Clinton/Christie
46-41 Clinton/Walker
47-40 Clinton/Cruz
44-37 Clinton/Fiorina
45-37 Clinton/Carson

Note: Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random survey of 1,259 registered voters in Iowa regarding potential matchups [388 Republicans]. The poll has a margin of error of 3% [5% for the Republican Primary question]. The total may not round to 100% because of rounding. The polling method was done through IVR, with the raw results weighted by anticipated voting demographics. A full reporting of the crosstabulated results is available upon request.

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/iowa-poll-bush-leads-crowded-gop-field-rice-beats-clinton-head-to-head-43-to-40/
Logged
Former Democrat
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 251
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: April 21, 2015, 08:21:23 am »

you`ve forgot these:

Condoleezza Rice (R) 43%
Hillary Clinton (D) 40%
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 47,932
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: April 21, 2015, 08:24:11 am »

you`ve forgot these:

Condoleezza Rice (R) 43%
Hillary Clinton (D) 40%

Nope, I didn't ...
Logged
YaBoyNY
NYMillennial
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,496
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: April 21, 2015, 08:28:35 am »

you`ve forgot these:

Condoleezza Rice (R) 43%
Hillary Clinton (D) 40%

They were the first ones he listed.
Logged

Your daily reminder that 90% of Bernie Sander's primary supporters are autistic manchildren.
Former Democrat
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 251
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: April 21, 2015, 08:38:12 am »

sorry was my fault
Logged
King
intermoderate
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29,482
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: April 21, 2015, 08:38:33 am »

The total may not round to 100% because of rounding.

God, I love Gravis.
Logged

HokeyDood
HockeyDude
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,597
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: April 21, 2015, 08:45:03 am »

Wow, IA will actually be a swing state in 2016. Cheesy
And lol@Rice.

And you are making that determination based on a Gravis poll a year and a half out and not on historical trends?
Logged



Registering for Atlas After Dark is a can of corn!
http://atlasafterdark.freeforums.net/
Flake
Flo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,710
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: April 21, 2015, 08:51:42 am »

It's really odd to see a state that leans more to the left than the country go harder for the Republicans than nationally in 2016 Tongue
Logged

King
intermoderate
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29,482
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: April 21, 2015, 08:52:34 am »

Wow, IA will actually be a swing state in 2016. Cheesy
And lol@Rice.

And you are making that determination based on a Gravis poll a year and a half out and not on historical trends?

No, based on many more polls not just from Gravis, but from PPP and Quinnipiac. The GOP needs to win IA in 2016, it is a must win. And which histrorical trends? Please elaborate. IA has not been trending Democratic recently, so...?

It's only voted Republican once in the past 7 Presidential elections and that once was <1% for GWB in a national race he won by 3 points. I'm guessing you'll go full Wulfric and bring up Ernst in 2014 despite that Iowa has had no problem electing Branstad and Grassley in midterms as well, with no effect on the Presidential outcome.
Logged

King
intermoderate
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29,482
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: April 21, 2015, 09:32:10 am »

lol

Democrats should have no reason to factor in 2014 to 2016.

Ernst won by 10 percentage points but only received 588,575 votes. 588,575 votes is less than any Presidential victor in Iowa received dating all the way back to 1948. It's about the same number of votes Nixon received in 1960, losing by 13 points, with a 1960 population size.

2014 midterm turnout is abysmal and has no impact on 2016 outcomes. Only Republicans showed up to vote, and even then, their turnout was bad too.
Logged

King
intermoderate
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29,482
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: April 21, 2015, 09:51:04 am »

Desperate by pointing out 2014 had the lowest turnout of any election in the post-WWII era?

I didn't ignore the rest of your post. You didn't really have a rest of post. You just said "so what?" over and over like that was an answer.

Have you heard of trends? Iowa is not trending Republican. I'm not being desperate or delusional. North Carolina is trending Republican. That is a fact. Iowa is not trending Republican. That is a fact.

Another person who just going to have to find out the hard way, I guess...
Logged

Southern Speaker Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,322
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: April 21, 2015, 09:51:34 am »

lol

Democrats should have no reason to factor in 2014 to 2016.

Ernst won by 10 percentage points but only received 588,575 votes. 588,575 votes is less than any Presidential victor in Iowa received dating all the way back to 1948. It's about the same number of votes Nixon received in 1960, losing by 13 points, with a 1960 population size.

2014 midterm turnout is abysmal and has no impact on 2016 outcomes. Only Republicans showed up to vote, and even then, their turnout was bad too.

You are absolutely right Monarch.  Differential turnout was a big reason for Ernst's victory - evangelicals in rural western Iowa voted in droves while many of the poor workers in the Quad City area weren't paying attention.  Hey, at least the bread bags voted...
Logged


Vote Lib Dem on May 7 - keep Clegg as deputy PM

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=244197.0
Different states!
King
intermoderate
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29,482
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: April 21, 2015, 09:56:21 am »

IndyRep, honestly answer this question: Do you REALLY believe there was a relevant number of people who voted for Ernst in 2014 and didn't vote for Romney in 2012? That's what it would require to say Iowa is going to the GOP in 2016. "I voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012, but that Joni Ernst really spoke to me and now I'm a Republican."

That sounds ludicrous to me. More likely, 99.9% of Ernst's 580,000 votes came out of the 730,000 Romney pool in 2012.
Logged

yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,772
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: April 21, 2015, 09:58:22 am »

Funny that Walker's losing by a bigger margin than the other important guys.
Logged
Brewer
BrewerPaul
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,630


Political Matrix
E: -6.90, S: -6.17

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: April 21, 2015, 10:51:43 am »

lol
Logged

King
intermoderate
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29,482
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: April 21, 2015, 11:35:27 am »

Hate to burst your encouraging bubble again but the final PPP for Iowa was Obama +2, Rasmussen's final was Romney +1, and Gravis was Obama +4.

Nothing about this poll is saying it's closer than what polls thought it was in 2012.
Logged

Landslide Lyndon
px75
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,200
Greece


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: April 21, 2015, 11:55:19 am »

Iowa was never Hillary's (or Bill's) stronghold. But it's a place where running a good primary campaign might actually improve her GE numbers.
Logged

Bob Findley: "You're a real dyed-in-the-wool son-of-a-bitch. Anyone ever told you that?"
Steve Everett: "Just close friends and family,"

Clint Eastwood's "True Crime", 1999.
Oak Hills
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,222
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: April 21, 2015, 12:46:20 pm »

Wow, IA will actually be a swing state in 2016. Cheesy

Iowa is always a swing state.
Logged

Trump does not have America's interests in mind: he does not know what these are and he does not care to learn. What he cares about is his own ego. He is willing to destroy America and the world to satisfy it.
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,734
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: April 21, 2015, 12:49:42 pm »

Funny that Walker's losing by a bigger margin than the other important guys.

His reputation follows from neighboring Wisconsin, where his popularity is going into the septic tank.
Logged



Your political compass

Economic Left/Right: -7.00
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.49
Bevinevitable
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,565
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

P P

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: April 21, 2015, 03:14:58 pm »

It's over. Condoleezza Rice will be the next president of the United States.
Logged

yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,772
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: April 21, 2015, 05:54:40 pm »

Funny that Walker's losing by a bigger margin than the other important guys.

His reputation follows from neighboring Wisconsin, where his popularity is going into the septic tank.
Yeah, I thought that could be it...
Logged
Fmr. Pres. Griff
Adam Griffin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14,713
Greece


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: April 22, 2015, 05:48:38 am »

The GOP needs to win IA in 2016, it is a must win.

Repeat after me: "Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, Florida; Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, Florida..."
Logged


Fmr. Pres. Griff
Adam Griffin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14,713
Greece


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: April 22, 2015, 06:57:55 am »

The GOP needs to win IA in 2016, it is a must win.

Repeat after me: "Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, Florida; Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, Florida..."

Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, Florida. Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, Florida. Tongue
Hmm, but IA may be easier for them to win than CO.

I still think CO has potential for more elasticity than IA in presidential elections, whereas in all other elections, it's the opposite.
Logged


Skill and Chance
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,310
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: April 22, 2015, 11:30:21 am »

The GOP needs to win IA in 2016, it is a must win.

Repeat after me: "Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, Florida; Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, Florida..."

Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, Florida. Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, Florida. Tongue
Hmm, but IA may be easier for them to win than CO.

I still think CO has potential for more elasticity than IA in presidential elections, whereas in all other elections, it's the opposite.

Those arguing for an R trend there do have rather strong logic.  There has been permanent rural damage to the Dem brand in so many other areas, it wouldn't surprise me if that has spread to IA.  And after McAuliffe won and Warner survived with low turnout, I have to conclude there is enough suburban Dem strength to put VA in a different league from OH and FL.  Starting to think the most likely narrow R win is OH+FL+IA+CO+NV with Rubio.  Exploit Clinton's Western problem.
Logged
TDAS04
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14,031
Nepal


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: April 23, 2015, 10:50:38 am »

I think Hillary will carry Iowa in the end, but not by a huge margin.
Logged

Economic:  -2.71
Social:  -5.74
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines