IA-Gravis: Hillary with a slight lead

[King]

The total may not round to 100% because of rounding.

God, I love Gravis.

[King]

Wow, IA will actually be a swing state in 2016.
And lol@Rice.

And you are making that determination based on a Gravis poll a year and a half out and not on historical trends?

No, based on many more polls not just from Gravis, but from PPP and Quinnipiac. The GOP needs to win IA in 2016, it is a must win. And which histrorical trends? Please elaborate. IA has not been trending Democratic recently, so...?

It's only voted Republican once in the past 7 Presidential elections and that once was <1% for GWB in a national race he won by 3 points. I'm guessing you'll go full Wulfric and bring up Ernst in 2014 despite that Iowa has had no problem electing Branstad and Grassley in midterms as well, with no effect on the Presidential outcome.

[King]

lol

Democrats should have no reason to factor in 2014 to 2016.

Ernst won by 10 percentage points but only received 588,575 votes. 588,575 votes is less than any Presidential victor in Iowa received dating all the way back to 1948. It's about the same number of votes Nixon received in 1960, losing by 13 points, with a 1960 population size.

2014 midterm turnout is abysmal and has no impact on 2016 outcomes. Only Republicans showed up to vote, and even then, their turnout was bad too.

[King]

Desperate by pointing out 2014 had the lowest turnout of any election in the post-WWII era?

I didn't ignore the rest of your post. You didn't really have a rest of post. You just said "so what?" over and over like that was an answer.

Have you heard of trends? Iowa is not trending Republican. I'm not being desperate or delusional. North Carolina is trending Republican. That is a fact. Iowa is not trending Republican. That is a fact.

Another person who just going to have to find out the hard way, I guess...

[King]

IndyRep, honestly answer this question: Do you REALLY believe there was a relevant number of people who voted for Ernst in 2014 and didn't vote for Romney in 2012? That's what it would require to say Iowa is going to the GOP in 2016. "I voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012, but that Joni Ernst really spoke to me and now I'm a Republican."

That sounds ludicrous to me. More likely, 99.9% of Ernst's 580,000 votes came out of the 730,000 Romney pool in 2012.

[King]

Hate to burst your encouraging bubble again but the final PPP for Iowa was Obama +2, Rasmussen's final was Romney +1, and Gravis was Obama +4.

Nothing about this poll is saying it's closer than what polls thought it was in 2012.