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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  NH-PPP: Clinton leading by a lot
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Author Topic: NH-PPP: Clinton leading by a lot  (Read 4173 times)
JRP1994
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« on: April 21, 2015, 10:14:25 am »

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/04/clinton-up-big-on-gop-field-in-nh.html
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JRP1994
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« Reply #1 on: April 21, 2015, 10:16:08 am »

Clinton: 49, Paul: 40
Clinton 49, Walker: 40
Clinton 50, Rubio 38
Clinton 49, Bush 36
Clinton 51, Carson 38
Clinton 51, Huckabee 38
Clinton 51, Perry 38
Clinton 51, Christie 36
Clinton 52, Cruz 37
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IA less likely to flip than OH/TX/FL/GA/NC/AZ
IndyRep
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« Reply #2 on: April 21, 2015, 10:17:06 am »

"Independent, libertarian swing state" NH. LOL! Sorry, FreeBird Tongue
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yeah_93
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« Reply #3 on: April 21, 2015, 10:20:22 am »

That's quite a lot...

Clinton approval: 44/47
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Gallium
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« Reply #4 on: April 21, 2015, 10:29:58 am »

The leads she has with NH women are chasmic.
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IA less likely to flip than OH/TX/FL/GA/NC/AZ
IndyRep
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« Reply #5 on: April 21, 2015, 10:35:58 am »

The leads she has with NH women are chasmic.

not surprising. NH is one of the states with the biggest gender gaps in elections...
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King
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« Reply #6 on: April 21, 2015, 10:41:15 am »

- GWB won NH in 2000, and in 2004 he only lost it because Kerry was a northeastern candidate. He would have won it in 2004 against a generic democrat. All of the states I listed are states that Bush either won or got within 5 points in in 2004.

That being said, PPP is still including Elizabeth Warren so this is a joke poll.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #7 on: April 21, 2015, 10:42:14 am »

"Independent, libertarian swing state" NH. LOL! Sorry, FreeBird Tongue

Don't see people calling Florida not a swing state because she sometimes has leads like that
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #8 on: April 21, 2015, 10:44:40 am »

Confirms the CNN poll.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #9 on: April 21, 2015, 12:20:58 pm »

Fringe of competitiveness. The only New England state to vote for a Republican nominee after 1988 suggests a solid Democratic firewall.
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Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #10 on: April 21, 2015, 01:06:44 pm »

LOL @Christie getting less of the vote than Cruz.
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Former Democrat
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« Reply #11 on: April 21, 2015, 02:02:58 pm »

it`s ine poll other polls showing a much closer race in NH far from over
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Ebsy
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« Reply #12 on: April 21, 2015, 02:03:47 pm »

If she's basically already at 50% there is no way for Republicans to win the state.
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Holmes
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« Reply #13 on: April 21, 2015, 02:30:22 pm »

Fringe of competitiveness. The only New England state to vote for a Republican nominee after 1988 suggests a solid Democratic firewall.


NH is quite similar to Arkansas. Being the only independent state in a solid D/R region, it just adjusted to its environment. It has always been a question of time only.

That's a good comparison. But New Hampshire isn't shy about voting for Republicans, unlike Arkansas with Democrats.

Then again, maybe Arkansas will be more receptive to Democrats under a Republican presidency.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #14 on: April 21, 2015, 04:05:07 pm »

Fringe of competitiveness. The only New England state to vote for a Republican nominee after 1988 suggests a solid Democratic firewall.


NH is quite similar to Arkansas. Being the only independent state in a solid D/R region, it just adjusted to its environment. It has always been a question of time only.

That's a good comparison. But New Hampshire isn't shy about voting for Republicans, unlike Arkansas with Democrats.

Then again, maybe Arkansas will be more receptive to Democrats under a Republican presidency.

Well, to say that it is going the way of Arkansas means that we would expect it to be voting like VT by the mid-2020's.  It's not impossible, but I don't think that's likely.
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Former Democrat
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« Reply #15 on: April 21, 2015, 04:30:16 pm »

 The CNN poll is bullsh**t and everybody knows it!
sure Hillary is ahead in NH but I doubt that big
but even when it means nothing
NH is deciding lately in the game
not surprising it`s trending from purpe to be more slightly blue
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #16 on: April 21, 2015, 04:37:57 pm »

NH may not be looking great but the GOP can't afford to ignore it. If VA is drifting D (especially with a Hillary/Warner or Hillary/Kaine ticket) then NH actually becomes a key part of their narrow path. If you start with Romney+FL,OH,CO,IA you get 268. NH gets you over the top. Without NH they have to start looking to win NV, WI or PA...all of which are either drifting even more D and/or a lot more expensive to target.
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Former Democrat
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« Reply #17 on: April 21, 2015, 04:49:37 pm »

I think a 270/268 outcome is very likely
VA will be tough
NH too
NV PA and WI are longshots imo
with Rubio of course NV could be in play and VA will be more likely
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Ebsy
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« Reply #18 on: April 21, 2015, 04:51:54 pm »

I think a 270/268 outcome is very likely
VA will be tough
NH too
NV PA and WI are longshots imo
with Rubio of course NV could be in play and VA will be more likely

I think Clinton will win a lot more EVs than 270.
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Panda Express
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« Reply #19 on: April 21, 2015, 04:54:19 pm »

Not sure why people are surprised. NH's competitiveness has been inflated the past two cycles. McCain was affectionately referred to as the states third senator and Romney had it as one of his home states. None of the current GOP candidates have any advantages to make NH pseudo-competitive like the last two Republican candidates did. NH is not a swing state in a 50/50 election.
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Former Democrat
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« Reply #20 on: April 21, 2015, 05:02:29 pm »

the election will be close
Hillary probably won`t get 300EV or more
maybe she wins OH would give her 288EV but she will lose IA and probably CO
so I don`t see wheer more EV could come from
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King
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« Reply #21 on: April 21, 2015, 05:06:05 pm »

the election will be close
Hillary probably won`t get 300EV or more
maybe she wins OH would give her 288EV but she will lose IA and probably CO
so I don`t see wheer more EV could come from

Yea, yea we heard it last time, George Will.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #22 on: April 21, 2015, 05:21:33 pm »

Not sure why people are surprised. NH's competitiveness has been inflated the past two cycles. McCain was affectionately referred to as the states third senator and Romney had it as one of his home states. None of the current GOP candidates have any advantages to make NH pseudo-competitive like the last two Republican candidates did. NH is not a swing state in a 50/50 election.

Yes.  I find Lean D status for NH in 2016 plausible because Romney was literally the best possible Republican nominee for NH and he still did worse there than nationally.  He was also pretty much the worst possible Republican for IA and OH, so I see trouble for Democrats there.  Obama and Romney were both strong candidates for VA and CO, so it will be interesting to see what those states do this time.
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Former Democrat
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« Reply #23 on: April 21, 2015, 05:24:28 pm »

The clintons are not very popular in IA and CO neither
of course if Cruz or Carson or Huckabee is the nominee she would win them but with Bush Chrsitie Paul Fiorina or Rubio she`ll lose them
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IceSpear
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« Reply #24 on: April 21, 2015, 05:35:59 pm »

the election will be close
Hillary probably won`t get 300EV or more
maybe she wins OH would give her 288EV but she will lose IA and probably CO
so I don`t see wheer more EV could come from

Yeah, as we all know Florida is solid R.
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