NH-PPP: Clinton leading by a lot

[Skye]

It baffles me that you are trying to come up with results when the candidates haven't even been decided, and the national campaigns have not started yet.

[Former Democrat]

FL would be republican with Rubio

[IceSpear]

FL would be republican with Rubio

Based off what? A single Mason Dixon poll? Their track record is awful.

[pbrower2a]

PPP polls Iowa this weekend.

[Tender Branson]

Confirms the CNN poll.

No, it does not.

NH is ca. D+2

Like all other recent state polls, this poll here indicates a national lead for Hillary of ca. 7-11 points, depending on which top candidate you are using.

The CNN poll had twice these margins, which makes it junky.

[YaBoyNY]

The clintons are not very popular in IA and CO neither
of course if Cruz or Carson or Huckabee is the nominee she would win them but with Bush Chrsitie Paul Fiorina or Rubio she`ll lose them

I'm really not sure where you're getting this idea from.

Are we just discounting the polls we want to discount because reasons?

[Devils30]

Romney and McCain were both very good fits for NH. Both lost the state by more than their national number. It doesn't make sense for the GOP to run expensive ads in the Boston media market and I see NH-1 flipping back to the Democrats.

[DS0816]

In the past: Every time a Republican won the presidency…New Hampshire carried.

In the present (and future) Every time a Democrat has won the presidency…New Hampshire carried/carries.

If the Democrats win a third consecutive presidential election with 2016…New Hampshire will carry.

[DS0816]

In the past: Every time a Republican won the presidency…New Hampshire carried.

Bush won without NH in 2004. I don't think NH is a pivotal state for the GOP.

I know.

I was going to add the state-breaks in patterns, for winning Republicans and winning Democrats, going back to a 1968 Richard Nixon but I figured … the hell with all that.

Certainly, you understand this!

[Likely Voter]

In the past: Every time a Republican won the presidency…New Hampshire carried.

Bush won without NH in 2004. I don't think NH is a pivotal state for the GOP.

If Clinton carries VA and NH how does GOP get to 270? (Assuming they pick up FL, OH, CO,  and IA)

You are left with....
 WI (unlikely w/o Walker and still difficult with him),
NV? (Looks more and more like NM which the GOP gave up on in 2012)
PA? (Much bigger and more expensive than NH and Hillary is better fit than Obama)

after that you get into fantasy land of turning MI, MN, OR, or NM into a tipping point.