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  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Torie)
  Why did Carter do so well in the plains?
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Author Topic: Why did Carter do so well in the plains?  (Read 4596 times)
ElectionsGuy
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« on: April 21, 2015, 04:02:29 pm »

Or in other words, why did Ford do so bad. This is Republican territory yet North Dakota only was 52-46 for Ford, South Dakota 50-49, Kansas 52-45, and Oklahoma 50-49. Yet Nebraska went 59-38 Ford. Did Carter do better than traditional Democrats in rural areas because of some sort of appeal. Did the 'good old Democrat' nature of his candidacy that won him nearly every southern state have an affect here? I'm struggling to figure this out, and why Nebraska was so Republican too.
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tara gilesbie
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« Reply #1 on: April 21, 2015, 04:05:39 pm »

Watergate fatigue, but mostly because the 1973-75 recession was especially hard for agriculture.
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #2 on: April 21, 2015, 04:08:03 pm »

Oklahoma can largely be explained by the traditionally Southern Democratic areas in the southeastern part of the state; Ford did extremely well in the more developed areas like OKC.
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Hydera
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« Reply #3 on: April 21, 2015, 04:10:25 pm »

The humble peanut farmer played really well in a lot of rural areas. But still, Ford in the last days was able to close a huge gap between him and carter from a double digit carter victory to a 2% only margin for carter. Had those GOP voters didnt come home then carter might of won those states in the great plains.

And if you were wondering about the south, a lot of southerners were outraged over the watergate scandal. Southerners tend to give more of a backlash towards scandals than other parts of the country which was why bush in 2000 was able to swing all of the southern states that clinton won, to him by claiming he'd restore "honor and integrity to the White House"

Also in the south, he actually got out tons of evangelical christians to vote in the south by emphasizing being a born again christian. These white evangelicals were able to counter the other white southerners who voted on racial issues.  And they later switched to the GOP when they found out that carter was not the evangelical christian they'd hope he would be when in office.
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solarstorm
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« Reply #4 on: April 21, 2015, 04:16:35 pm »
« Edited: April 21, 2015, 04:18:48 pm by solarstorm »

Even though many users disregard and deny the fact: Mondale delivered many voters from the Dakotas,
Kansas is a bit "Southish", and Oklahoma is part of the South.

The county map shows the geo-social behavior of the voters very well.

Img
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tara gilesbie
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« Reply #5 on: April 21, 2015, 04:19:39 pm »

Even though many users disregard and deny the fact: Mondale delivered many voters from the Dakotas,
Kansas is a bit "Southish", and Oklahoma is part of the South.

Yes, Mondale was an great asset in 1976, however mediocre he was in 1984.
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Hydera
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« Reply #6 on: April 21, 2015, 04:23:55 pm »

Huh this is strange, Whats with 20% of democrats voting for ford while carter only got 10% of republicans?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1976#Voter_demographics


Carter should of been the archtype democrat who could bring back the white conservative democrats back to the party. White evangelical southerner who grew up humble and had a folksy peanut farmer image. What explains why there were double of cross-party votes in favor of ford than the reverse?

If carter gained just 10% of democrats that went to ford he would of got a 400+ EV landslide
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tara gilesbie
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« Reply #7 on: April 21, 2015, 04:25:29 pm »

Huh this is strange, Whats with 20% of democrats voting for ford while carter only got 10% of republicans?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1976#Voter_demographics


Carter should of been the archtype democrat who could bring back the southern and/or conservative democrats back to the party. White evangelical southerner who grew up humble and had a folksy peanut farmer image. What explains why there were double of cross-party votes in favor of ford than the reverse?

Bigotry against Carter's religion.
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Let Dogs Survive
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« Reply #8 on: April 21, 2015, 05:21:32 pm »

Huh this is strange, Whats with 20% of democrats voting for ford while carter only got 10% of republicans?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1976#Voter_demographics


Carter should of been the archtype democrat who could bring back the southern and/or conservative democrats back to the party. White evangelical southerner who grew up humble and had a folksy peanut farmer image. What explains why there were double of cross-party votes in favor of ford than the reverse?

Bigotry against Carter's religion.

Northern Democrats and SJW liberal hacks that decided to stick with the moderate they knew than some upstart Southerner with a hick sister and beer brewing redneck brother with these conceding conservative values. (And yet they allowed Clinton and Obama both of who are rightwards to this "conservative")

These people probably voted for Kennedy in the primaries next round, the switched to Anderson or...even Reagan.
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sg0508
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« Reply #9 on: April 21, 2015, 08:15:17 pm »

The humble peanut farmer played really well in a lot of rural areas. But still, Ford in the last days was able to close a huge gap between him and carter from a double digit carter victory to a 2% only margin for carter. Had those GOP voters didnt come home then carter might of won those states in the great plains.

And if you were wondering about the south, a lot of southerners were outraged over the watergate scandal. Southerners tend to give more of a backlash towards scandals than other parts of the country which was why bush in 2000 was able to swing all of the southern states that clinton won, to him by claiming he'd restore "honor and integrity to the White House"

Also in the south, he actually got out tons of evangelical christians to vote in the south by emphasizing being a born again christian. These white evangelicals were able to counter the other white southerners who voted on racial issues.  And they later switched to the GOP when they found out that carter was not the evangelical christian they'd hope he would be when in office.
Ford closed the lead gradually from the DNC (down 62-29% after).  The Eastern Europe comment slowed the momentum and Carter foolishly dealing with Playboy gave Ford a second wind. 
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Mechaman
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« Reply #10 on: April 21, 2015, 09:14:07 pm »
« Edited: April 21, 2015, 09:22:52 pm by Stone Cold Conservative »

Huh this is strange, Whats with 20% of democrats voting for ford while carter only got 10% of republicans?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1976#Voter_demographics


Carter should of been the archtype democrat who could bring back the white conservative democrats back to the party. White evangelical southerner who grew up humble and had a folksy peanut farmer image. What explains why there were double of cross-party votes in favor of ford than the reverse?

If carter gained just 10% of democrats that went to ford he would of got a 400+ EV landslide

Everyone and their grandmother were Democrats back then.  Registered Republicans made up only a little over a quarter of the population.  The potential for Democratic crossovers to Ford therefore would naturally be larger than the opposite scenario.  Those stats you are looking at for people who identify as "Democrats", so I imagine that for 1972 the number of Democrats voting for Nixon would be somewhere in the mid thirties if not higher.

Just my five cents.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #11 on: April 21, 2015, 10:59:35 pm »

Exactly.

The Southern States that Carter won, weren't by the margins of solid south standards, but the registration and identification as "Democrats" remained from that era with only a slight decline from registration in metropolitan areas that leaned more Republican then the rural areas. Therefore, that meant that large numbers of Democrats were voting Republican in the South. A good example of this was the Jessecrats in NC. Helms killed it in the now urber Republican rural areas in central NC between Raleigh, Charlotte and the Triad. At the time, they were still Democrats. Carter seems to have taken back some of these counties, even intruding into ancestrally Republican counties on the TN border.

Also in the north, the type of working class voters who were voting Republican and providing the victory margins, were likely union Democrats as well, since their suburban bases alone and the ancestrally Republican rural areas were not enough to contribute to victory on their own. Ford won Michigan, so he probably got a good number of Democrats there as well.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #12 on: April 21, 2015, 11:25:57 pm »

Huh this is strange, Whats with 20% of democrats voting for ford while carter only got 10% of republicans?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1976#Voter_demographics


Carter should of been the archtype democrat who could bring back the white conservative democrats back to the party. White evangelical southerner who grew up humble and had a folksy peanut farmer image. What explains why there were double of cross-party votes in favor of ford than the reverse?

If carter gained just 10% of democrats that went to ford he would of got a 400+ EV landslide

Everyone and their grandmother were Democrats back then.  Registered Republicans made up only a little over a quarter of the population.  The potential for Democratic crossovers to Ford therefore would naturally be larger than the opposite scenario.  Those stats you are looking at for people who identify as "Democrats", so I imagine that for 1972 the number of Democrats voting for Nixon would be somewhere in the mid thirties if not higher.

Just my five cents.

I think it's hilarious how the media still pretends Reagan Democrats are a thing. "Reagan Democrats" are either dead or staunch Republicans by now.
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TheElectoralBoobyPrize
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« Reply #13 on: April 22, 2015, 10:03:54 am »

So I guess the question then is why Nebraska was solidly Republican? It also was in '88 when Dukakis otherwise did well in plains states because of the 80's farm crisis. And in '64, it was Goldwater's best plains state by far.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #14 on: April 22, 2015, 10:23:11 am »

Wasn't Ford originally from Nebraska? That would explain why he did so much better there.
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Nym90
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« Reply #15 on: April 22, 2015, 10:38:44 am »

Wasn't Ford originally from Nebraska? That would explain why he did so much better there.

He was born there, yes.
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #16 on: April 22, 2015, 11:07:28 am »

I mean let's be clear, Jimmy Carter is winning a lot of rural, white counties in the South while Ford is winning most of the metro areas (where Republican strength in the South began and spread from); yes, I know Carter winning the Black vote by so much won him several Southern states, but he's still winning most of those rural, staunchly Dixiecrat voters.  I'm sure that appeal extended to the Plains.
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TheElectoralBoobyPrize
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« Reply #17 on: April 22, 2015, 12:03:55 pm »

Wasn't Ford originally from Nebraska? That would explain why he did so much better there.

He was born there, yes.

Birth state means hardly anything in elections. Ford lost NE to Reagan in the primaries.

NE was also solidly Republican in '88 when most other plains were competitive due to the farm crisis. Also, Goldwater did much better there, winning two of the three CD's, than in Kansas, Oklahoma, or the Dakotas.
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Southern Speaker Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #18 on: April 22, 2015, 12:16:14 pm »

Okay, sometimes it does matter, sometimes it doesn't.  In the 2000 election it obviously didn't - Bush was born in CT and Gore in DC but in any case neither's birthplaces affected the election.
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #19 on: April 22, 2015, 01:24:35 pm »

Wasn't Ford originally from Nebraska? That would explain why he did so much better there.

He was born there, yes.

Birth state means hardly anything in elections. Ford lost NE to Reagan in the primaries.

NE was also solidly Republican in '88 when most other plains were competitive due to the farm crisis. Also, Goldwater did much better there, winning two of the three CD's, than in Kansas, Oklahoma, or the Dakotas.

Maybe the Omaha area is a higher percent of Nebraska's population than other metros were of their states?  At least KS has Lawrence, Topeka and Wichita, which I'm guessing all voted much more Democratic than the KS suburbs of Kansas City.  Oklahoma has already been explained.  No idea about the Dakotas, other than they haven't been anywhere near as partisan GOP as Nebraska in the last four decades.
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shua
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« Reply #20 on: April 22, 2015, 10:13:58 pm »

South Dakota and Nebraska are very different cases. The last presidential election SD was more Democratic than the nation was Dukakis. The last time for Nebraska, Wilson was running on "He kept us out of war."
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #21 on: April 26, 2015, 09:50:22 pm »

The humble peanut farmer played really well in a lot of rural areas. But still, Ford in the last days was able to close a huge gap between him and carter from a double digit carter victory to a 2% only margin for carter. Had those GOP voters didnt come home then carter might of won those states in the great plains.

And if you were wondering about the south, a lot of southerners were outraged over the watergate scandal. Southerners tend to give more of a backlash towards scandals than other parts of the country which was why bush in 2000 was able to swing all of the southern states that clinton won, to him by claiming he'd restore "honor and integrity to the White House"

Also in the south, he actually got out tons of evangelical christians to vote in the south by emphasizing being a born again christian. These white evangelicals were able to counter the other white southerners who voted on racial issues.  And they later switched to the GOP when they found out that carter was not the evangelical christian they'd hope he would be when in office.

That is a truly stupid picture of Hillary. Are you that much of a sycophant?
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mathstatman
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« Reply #22 on: April 30, 2015, 04:02:57 pm »

Carter presented himself as a populist, perhaps better than any Democrat since 1948. This appealed to Midwestern farmers/small town folk. Carter's good fortunes even extended to Ford's home state of MI to some extent: in Lapeer and St. Clair counties (rural SE Mich) Carter improved enormously over Humphrey-McGovern and in Lapeer even held Ford to a lower percentage than Nixon '68.
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Fuzzy Bear
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« Reply #23 on: April 30, 2015, 04:18:11 pm »

The Dakotas were more progresslive then.  South Dakota had been trending Democratic through the 1960s, and North Dakota had a history of the Non-Partisan League (NPL) endorsing candidates.  The Republicans sent to Washington by North Dakota were often very LIBERAL Republicans; they were truly RINOs.  That's not true anymore. 
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