VA-CNU: Bush leads Clinton, other Republicans slightly behind

[Tender Branson]

48-46 Bush/Clinton (Feb. poll: 48-43 Clinton)
47-45 Clinton/Christie (Feb. poll: 49-42 Clinton)
49-47 Clinton/Paul (Feb. poll: 52-42 Clinton)
49-46 Clinton/Huckabee (Feb. poll: 52-42 Clinton)
49-45 Clinton/Rubio (Feb. poll: 51-42 Clinton)
49-44 Clinton/Cruz (Feb. poll: not polled)
48-43 Clinton/Walker (Feb. poll: not polled)

How the survey was conducted:

The results of this poll are based on 658
interviews of registered Virginia voters,
including 388 on landline and 270 on cell phone,
conducted April 13-24, 2015. Percentages may
not equal 100 due to rounding. The margin of
error for the whole survey is +/- 4.6% at the 95%
level of confidence. All error margins have been
adjusted to account for the survey’s design
effect, which is 1.47 in this survey. The design
effect is a factor representing the survey’s
deviation from a simple random sample, and
takes into account decreases in precision due to
sample design and weighting procedures. In
addition to sampling error, the other potential
sources of error include non-response, question
wording, and interviewer error. The response
rate (AAPOR RRI Standard Definition) for the
survey was 19%. Five callbacks were employed
in the fielding process. Live calling was
conducted by trained interviewers at the Wason
Center for Public Policy Survey Research Lab at
Christopher Newport University. The data
reported here are weighted using an iterative
weighting process on sex, age, race and region of
residence to reflect as closely as possible the
demographic composition of registered voters in
Virginia. The survey was designed by Dr.
Quentin Kidd of the Wason Center for Public
Policy at Christopher Newport University.

http://cnu.edu/cpp/pdf/April%2027%202015%20Report%20Final.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Inevitubble ...

[King]

She's only up by a little instead of a lot. What a tremendous victory for anti-Hillary forces!

[King]

It is unwinnable for the Republicans as part of a 270. Its close but everything points to it breaking  Dem in the end unless it's a solid GOP win.

[Free Bird]

Against Bush and probably Paul or Walker she loses it if it is sinking this early

[King]

Well, Bush could win Florida and Virginia and sweep the South, but his problem is that he is a TERRIBLE fit for CO, IA, WI and NH. From an EC standpoint, Paul and Kasich might be the best candidates to get to 270 EV.

Well, Bush could win Florida and Virginia and sweep the South, but his problem is that he is a TERRIBLE fit for CO, IA, WI and NH. From an EC standpoint, Paul and Kasich might be the best candidates to get to 270 EV.

This all goes on the assumption that the national opinion of these three people is going to be good. It's a complete fallacy. "Hillary's favorables are going to only go down and everyone else's are only going to go up."  Reality is, it doesn't get any worse for her than this and if this the worst, she's in good shape..

Part of the reason Hillary has such an advantage is that she isn't facing a completely destructive primary. All of these people are going to be attacking each other and fake scandals will be written about all of them in due time--especially since there are so many of them, every single one of them feels like they have a good chance and will throw the sink at each other.

I'd be shocked if 55% or worse of Americans didn't have a negative opinion of each Bush, Paul, and Walker this time next year. It was what happened to Romney in a weaker field. Remember, Bain Capital was a Gingrich-funded smear campaign not an Obama one. That is what is going to end up sealing this for Clinton. The Republican machine won't be able to stop from eating itself.

[Devils30]

45% R or lean R, 40% D or lean D with party ID. Not happening.

[porky88]

45% R or lean R, 40% D or lean D with party ID. Not happening.

I wonder if they're oversampling republicans because of the competitive primary.

[Ebsy]

The actual electorate doesn't resemble those polled, but don't let that fool you. Clinton's really fading fast!

[Skill and Chance]

Well, Bush could win Florida and Virginia and sweep the South, but his problem is that he is a TERRIBLE fit for CO, IA, WI and NH. From an EC standpoint, Paul and Kasich might be the best candidates to get to 270 EV.

Well, Bush could win Florida and Virginia and sweep the South, but his problem is that he is a TERRIBLE fit for CO, IA, WI and NH. From an EC standpoint, Paul and Kasich might be the best candidates to get to 270 EV.

This all goes on the assumption that the national opinion of these three people is going to be good. It's a complete fallacy. "Hillary's favorables are going to only go down and everyone else's are only going to go up."  Reality is, it doesn't get any worse for her than this and if this the worst, she's in good shape..

Part of the reason Hillary has such an advantage is that she isn't facing a completely destructive primary. All of these people are going to be attacking each other and fake scandals will be written about all of them in due time--especially since there are so many of them, every single one of them feels like they have a good chance and will throw the sink at each other.

I'd be shocked if 55% or worse of Americans didn't have a negative opinion of each Bush, Paul, and Walker this time next year. It was what happened to Romney in a weaker field. Remember, Bain Capital was a Gingrich-funded smear campaign not an Obama one. That is what is going to end up sealing this for Clinton. The Republican machine won't be able to stop from eating itself.

If the various Republicans proceed to accuse each other of graft and end up questioning whether women should be allowed to own property, then this really is the global min for her and she's in great shape.  But the R's running this time don't seem that crazy, save for Cruz or maybe Huckabee.  The fact that she went from the Democratic Ike to being in a toss up race nationally after just two months of negative media exposure has to be a problem.

[King]

Craziness of the field is to the lowest common denominator.  Even if only Cruz and Huckabee are the only ones dropping the crazy, the rest of the field will be associated with their statements as long as they don't condemn them, which none of them will have the balls to do. That is what happened last time.

[Skye]

Interesting poll. Hillary's numbers probably have to do with the fallout of accusations she's currently facing? Either way, I doubt Virginia becomes less competitive than it was in 2012 if the election is close.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Interesting poll. Hillary's numbers probably have to do with the fallout of accusations she's currently facing? Either way, I doubt Virginia becomes less competitive than it was in 2012 if the election is close.

Also, the economy has gotton weaker; it was always gonna come down to 272 firewall CO; NV; Pa; Ia; and NH

[King]

Also, the economy has gotton weaker

?

[Skill and Chance]

Also, the economy has gotton weaker

?

Jobs numbers are down.  The 5% growth last fall now looks more like a blip than a trend.  It's still growing though, so no reason to think it will sink the Dems.  But sustained 5% growth through to the election would have all but ensured a 10 point incumbent party win.

[King]

Also, the economy has gotton weaker

?

Jobs numbers are down.  The 5% growth last fall now looks more like a blip than a trend.  It's still growing though, so no reason to think it will sink the Dems.  But sustained 5% growth through to the election would have all but ensured a 10 point incumbent party win.

Sustained 5% growth through to the election would have all but ensured a recession.

[Lief 🗽]

ITT: hillary haters triumphantly pointing to garbage university polls that show her tied or ahead in a Republican must-win state.

[bedstuy]

Christopher Newport's University? 

Survey stats:
Democrat: 24%

2012 Virginia exit poll:
Democrat: 39%

I doubt that the actual 2016 exit poll will show 24% Democrats.

[Skill and Chance]

Also, the economy has gotton weaker

?

Jobs numbers are down.  The 5% growth last fall now looks more like a blip than a trend.  It's still growing though, so no reason to think it will sink the Dems.  But sustained 5% growth through to the election would have all but ensured a 10 point incumbent party win.

Sustained 5% growth through to the election would have all but ensured a recession.

The longest the US has ever gone without a recession is about 10 years.  It's highly likely that something will go wrong by 2017-19 regardless.  For this reason, I almost think the left will make out better in the long term if Clinton loses and Republicans are holding all the controls when things get rough again.  I would be more confident about that if Ginsburg, Kennedy, and Scalia were 60, though.

[Mr. Illini]

Poll oversamples Republicans

Republicans hail poll as evidence of Clinton collapse

[Gallium]

Junk poll!

[Flake]

45% R or lean R, 40% D or lean D with party ID. Not happening.

Wasn't Virginia 36-36 in 2014? I don't think this poll is accurate.

[King]

Also, the economy has gotton weaker

?

Jobs numbers are down.  The 5% growth last fall now looks more like a blip than a trend.  It's still growing though, so no reason to think it will sink the Dems.  But sustained 5% growth through to the election would have all but ensured a 10 point incumbent party win.

Sustained 5% growth through to the election would have all but ensured a recession.

The longest the US has ever gone without a recession is about 10 years.  It's highly likely that something will go wrong by 2017-19 regardless.  For this reason, I almost think the left will make out better in the long term if Clinton loses and Republicans are holding all the controls when things get rough again.  I would be more confident about that if Ginsburg, Kennedy, and Scalia were 60, though.

Well, if you believe economics, recessions happen because national GDP outpaces what the economy is capable of producing--not because "its been 10 years, time for a recession."

If the growth has been slow, it lessons the chance of a recession because we aren't overproducing.

[Skill and Chance]

Also, the economy has gotton weaker

?

Jobs numbers are down.  The 5% growth last fall now looks more like a blip than a trend.  It's still growing though, so no reason to think it will sink the Dems.  But sustained 5% growth through to the election would have all but ensured a 10 point incumbent party win.

Sustained 5% growth through to the election would have all but ensured a recession.

The longest the US has ever gone without a recession is about 10 years.  It's highly likely that something will go wrong by 2017-19 regardless.  For this reason, I almost think the left will make out better in the long term if Clinton loses and Republicans are holding all the controls when things get rough again.  I would be more confident about that if Ginsburg, Kennedy, and Scalia were 60, though.

Well, if you believe economics, recessions happen because national GDP outpaces what the economy is capable of producing--not because "its been 10 years, time for a recession."

If the growth has been slow, it lessons the chance of a recession because we aren't overproducing.

I tend to believe that recessions and booms are the accumulation of random variations in the timing of business transactions around a mean of positive growth (e.g. 3% for 20th century US GDP, 7% for the inflation-adjusted stock market since the 1870's).  There is just enough friction in the system (job training, time to complete education, stigma of unemployment, families waiting to have a child/having extra children in good times, etc.) to give the system a memory of a couple years as it makes the biased random walk upward.

Of course, it is possible that the memory of a single period has gotten longer recently with the increasing importance of higher education in the job market.  But there is still the sense that avoiding a serious recession for 10-20 years is like flipping heads 5-10 times in a row.  Even with a biased coin on your side, that is nothing to hang your hat on.

[King]

We also have delayed stimulus coming in rising wages (retail giants are just now beginning to raise wages) and Medicaid expansion that should have happened two years ago but likely won't be finished until the end of the decade. There's so much room for the world economy left to grow just to get back to the pace it was on before the crash.