YouGov/Economist national poll:Clinton leads Bush/Christie/Huckabee by 12-14 pts

[pbrower2a]

Hillary Clinton is still close to any imaginable ceiling for a Democrat nationwide; the Republicans are close to the floor. With 20% or so undecided, one would need to speculate on how the 20% or so split.

The undecided are mostly Republican-leaning voters. The hope for Hillary Clinton is not that the undecided in this poll split nearly 50-50; it is instead that those people stay home or are too confused to vote. 

Clinton 46%
Bush 34%

Clinton 48%
Huckabee 34%

Clinton 46%
Christie 34%

according to the poll.

This is what a 50-50 split does:

Clinton 56%
Bush 44%

Clinton 57%
Huckabee 43%

Clinton 56%
Christie 44%

No Presidential nominee has done so well since Ronald Reagan in 1984. Such suggests also the biggest wave year for Democrats since 1958 in Congressional elections. The Republicans who gerrymandered a structural advantage in the House  of about 60 seats by concentrating Democrats into D+10 seats and thinning the Democrats out elsewhere into dozens of R+4 seats find those seats turning on Republican incumbents.
 
Let's try the assumption that the undecided in such a poll simply fail to vote.

Clinton 56%
Bush 44%

Clinton 58%
Huckabee 42%

Clinton 56%
Christie 44%

That's a bigger win than the elder Bush got in 1992, suggesting a continuation of support for a highly-popular incumbent President precluded from running for a Third Term.

...This said, Democrats still seem (should Hillary Clinton be the nominee) to have enough of a built-in advantage in the electoral college (in general the Democrats win by smaller percentages in most of the states that Democrats win than Republicans win by in the states that they win). Hillary Clinton could win the electoral college with a 49-51 split of the popular vote, she getting the 49.

OK -- what about a 70-30 split of the undecided in favor of the Republicans?


Clinton 50%
Bush 50%

Clinton 53%
Huckabee 47%

Clinton 50%
Christie 50%

Any one of those is still a Clinton win.

[pbrower2a]

Another outlier which is not supported by recent state polls.

Recent state polls indicate Hillary is ahead of Bush by a 4-8% margin nationally, as well as other top Republicans.

Christie and Huckabee might be down by 8-10%.

I think Tender has declared more polls to than to be inliers lately.

Apparently the only gold standard.for polling these days is Christopher Newport University

So, you are ignoring basically all state polls recently which show that Hillary does no better than Obama in 2008 or 2012, which further means that Hillary can only be ahead by 5-10% nationally against the top GOPers ?

It's not only Christopher Newport University, it's also PPP, Quinnipiac, SUSA, Mason-Dixon etc.

If you are not seeing the pattern, you must be blind ...

In 2008 President Obama maxed out a raft of States, winning by margins characteristic of Ronald Reagan nationally in a landslide. He also lost some states by margins that one would expect of McGovern in 1972 or Mondale in 1984.

I cannot imagine Hillary Clinton outperforming Barack Obama in any state that he won by 15% margins. She is not going to outperform Barack Obama in most swing states, either. So where does that leave the opportunity for gain nationwide? States that Barack Obama got wiped out in.  


A composite of Presidential elections, 1992-2012:

Deep red -- Democrats win every Presidential race.
Medium red -- Democrats win all but one Presidential race.
White -- always went with the winner
Pale blue -- went for the winner in all election, but in that exception went for the Republican
Yellow -- twice Democratic, but seeming to now drift Democratic
Green -- twice Democratic but seeming to drift Republican (Missouri in a light shade because Obama was close in 2008, others deep green)
Medium blue -- Republicans win all but one Presidential race.
Deep blue --Republicans win every Presidential race.

NE-02 is the middle box in Nebraska even if the district is Greater Omaha.

....the states in deep green.