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Gass3268
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« on: May 03, 2015, 09:13:16 pm »

ElectionsGuy's 50 Equal States project inspired me to revise my Senate Redistricting project from 2012.

Senate Redistricting Rules
1. The 100 members of the United States Senate are now elected, via first-past-the-post, from 100 Senate Regions.
2. The 100 Regions are drawn from the current 50 states and the District of Columbia.
3. The population target for each region is 3,087,455 people.
4. A deviation of plus or minus 5% is allowed. Regions can be between 2,933,083 and 3,241,828 people.
5. When possible:
- Keep all Voting Rights Act (VRA) protected minority neighborhoods/areas together.
- Create minority opportunity regions.
- Keep counties whole.
- Keep county subunits (cities, towns, villages, neighborhoods, etc.) whole.
- Keep major metropolitan areas and urban county clusters together.
- Keep states together.
6. Acceptable reasons to split counties:
- County is too large to be kept whole.
- Geographic restrictions.
- Keeping a VRA area together or the creation of a minority opportunity region.
- Helping keep another state whole.   

Here is the map:



Starting probably tomorrow, I will be posting information about the make-up and election results about each district. I will also provide comment on my thought process on how each region was created. 
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1 on: May 04, 2015, 02:08:47 pm »
« Edited: May 04, 2015, 07:47:04 pm by Governor Gass3268 »

Region: Northeast New England (Red)
Largest City: Manchester, NH
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President Franklin Pierce
PVI: D+3

Obama 2012: 54.4%
Romney 2012: 43.4%

Obama 2008: 56.3%
McCain 2008: 42.0%

Region Swing: 3.3% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 0.1% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Maine: 44%
Massachusetts: 13%
New Hampshire: 43%

Region Comment:
After putting Maine and New Hampshire together this region still need to add 9% to 19% of the regions's population. Vermont is 20% of a region, so I would have to split the state to add it to this Region and I want to avoid that. So I went into Essex County, Massachusetts and grabbed the necessary 13%. This region has Susan Collins written all over it.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2 on: May 04, 2015, 02:24:51 pm »
« Edited: May 04, 2015, 07:46:56 pm by Governor Gass3268 »

Region: Massachusetts Bay (Green)
Largest City: Boston, MA
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President John Adams
PVI: D+12

Obama 2012: 63.6%
Romney 2012: 34.6%

Obama 2008: 64.4%
McCain 2008: 33.6%

Region Swing: 1.7% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 1.7% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Massachusetts: 100%

Region Comment
The goal here was to keep as much of the inner Boston Metropolitan area together as possible and I was able to do that. Both Elizabeth Warren and Ed Markey would dominate in this district, but who exactly would be dependent on when this system was put in place as Ted Kennedy would have been the incumbent here for a long time.
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ElectionsGuy
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Political Matrix
E: 4.90, S: -7.65

P P P
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« Reply #3 on: May 04, 2015, 03:08:01 pm »

Awesome.
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Goldwater
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« Reply #4 on: May 04, 2015, 03:35:23 pm »

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Gass3268
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« Reply #5 on: May 04, 2015, 04:19:32 pm »
« Edited: May 04, 2015, 07:45:28 pm by Governor Gass3268 »

Region: Southeast New England (Blue)
Largest City: Worcester, MA
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Rodger Williams
PVI: D+6

Obama 2012: 57.1%
Romney 2012: 41.1%

Obama 2008: 58.4%
McCain 2008: 39.3%

Region Swing: 3.1% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 0.3% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Massachusetts: 67%
Rhode Island: 33%

Region Comment
The objective here was to try to keep as much as the outer Boston Metropolitan area together. Originally I would take this region into Eastern Connecticut, but I realized this time around that all of Worcester County would fit. This also allowed for almost all of Connecticut to be whole in the next region. Senator George Reed would be strong in this region.  
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Gass3268
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« Reply #6 on: May 04, 2015, 04:55:09 pm »
« Edited: May 04, 2015, 08:36:33 pm by Governor Gass3268 »

Region: Southwest New England (Yellow)
Largest City: Springfield, MA
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Senator Roger Sherman
PVI: D+8

Obama 2012: 59.6%
Romney 2012: 39.2%

Obama 2008: 61.2%
McCain 2008: 37.3%

Region Swing: 3.6% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 0.2% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Connecticut: 85%
Massachusetts: 15%

Region Comment
Connecticut was too large for one region so it made sense to split off Fairfield County and put it with the northern New York City suburbs. Hampden County made sense as there are economic connections between Hartford, CT and Springfield, MA. Chris Murphy would be the Senator from this region
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Gass3268
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« Reply #7 on: May 04, 2015, 07:44:50 pm »

Region: Adirondacks & Northwest New England (Purple)
Largest City: Albany, NY
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President Calvin Coolidge
PVI: D+7

Obama 2012: 59.1%
Romney 2012: 38.6%

Obama 2008: 58.7%
McCain 2008: 39.3%

Region Swing: 1.0% Towards Democrats
Region Trend: 4.4% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Massachusetts: 12%
New York: 68%
Vermont: 20%

Region Comment
The intent of this region was to take the remainder of New England (with the exception of Fairfield County, CT which again will be with the northern New York City suburbs) and then combine it with as much of upstate New York as possible before getting to the Syracuse metropolitan area. I was able to get all of the Capital District, Mohawk Valley and North Country in this region. Both Patrick Leahy and Bernie Sanders are from this region, but with New York making up more than 2/3rds of this region I would guess a New Yorker would represent this region.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #8 on: May 04, 2015, 08:13:38 pm »
« Edited: May 05, 2015, 01:02:51 pm by Governor Gass3268 »

Region: Long Island (Beige)
Largest City: New York City, NY
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President Theodore Roosevelt
PVI: D+2

Obama 2012: 53.4%
Romney 2012: 45.5%

Obama 2008: 53.9%
McCain 2008: 45.3%

Region Swing: 0.8% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 2.6% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
New York: 100%

Region Comment
Nassau and Suffolk counties together only make up 91% of a region, so I had to go into New York City.  I added the Rockways and the far northeastern neighborhoods of Queens. Congressmen Steve Israel and Peter King would both be good bets for this region.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #9 on: May 04, 2015, 08:35:41 pm »
« Edited: May 05, 2015, 01:03:33 pm by Governor Gass3268 »

Region: Jamaica Bay (Yellow)
Largest City: New York City, NY
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Jackie Robinson
PVI: D+33

Obama 2012: 86.9%
Romney 2012: 13.4%

Obama 2008: 83.4%
McCain 2008: 16.2%

Region Swing: 6.2% Towards Democrats
Region Trend: 9.6% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
New York: 100%

Region Comment
This region is the minority-majority region for Brooklyn and Queens in New York City. Predominately the southern parts of these two boroughs with two arms into the northern neighborhoods. Congressman Gregory Meeks, Congresswoman Yvette Clark or Nydia Velazquez would be strong candidates in this region.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #10 on: May 05, 2015, 12:21:58 am »

Both Patrick Leahy and Bernie Sanders are from this region, but with New York making up more than 2/3rds of this region I would guess a New Yorker would represent this region.

And that is why we have one chamber organized on the basis of each state being represented equally. Tongue
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Gass3268
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« Reply #11 on: May 05, 2015, 12:51:55 pm »
« Edited: May 05, 2015, 01:02:31 pm by Governor Gass3268 »

Region: New York Bay (Brown)
Largest City: New York City, NY
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Secretary of the Treasury Alexander Hamilton
PVI: D+19

Obama 2012: 71.7%
Romney 2012: 26.1%

Obama 2008: 71.1%
McCain 2008: 28.0%

Region Swing: 2.5% Towards Democrats
Region Trend: 5.9% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
New York: 100%

Region Comment
This this the white New York City region and it is the only region with all five boroughs in it. I was not thrilled with having to take in some of the Bronx into this region, but it was either that or go into New Jersey, which I only wanted to do once with a New York City region. This would totally be Chuck Schumer's region as he lives in a well off area in Brooklyn and he's essentially Senator Wall Street.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #12 on: May 05, 2015, 01:02:16 pm »

Region: Harlem River & Newark Bay (Red)
Largest City: New York City, NY
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Billie Holiday
PVI: D+35

Obama 2012: 87.8%
Romney 2012: 11.5%

Obama 2008: 85.6%
McCain 2008: 13.8%

Region Swing: 4.5% Towards Democrats
Region Trend: 7.9% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
New Jersey: 42%
New York: 58%

Region Comment
The objective here was to connect the rest of New York City (Harlem and most of the Bronx) with the minority-majority communities in Northern New Jersey. I was able to add all of Hudson County, a couple cities from Essex County including Newark, and a strip of counties along the Hudson River in Bergen County to connect Northern New York City to Essex and Hudson counties. Cory Booker would dominate this region, even though Bob Menendez is also from here. This is also the most Democratic region in the United States.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #13 on: May 05, 2015, 01:12:38 pm »

Region: Lower Hudson River Valley (Orange)
Largest City: Yonkers, NY
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President Franklin Delano Roosevelt
PVI: D+6

Obama 2012: 57.8%
Romney 2012: 43.7%

Obama 2008: 57.9%
McCain 2008: 41.2%

Region Swing: 2.6% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 0.8% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Connecticut: 29%
New York: 71%

Region Comment
This region is the Northern New York City suburbs region. Very happy how this district does not bump into any other New York region and that its pretty compact. Richard Blumenthal is from this region, but again I imagine a New Yorker like Representatives Elliot Engel or Nita Lowey.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #14 on: May 05, 2015, 01:20:46 pm »

Region: Lake Ontario Shoreline (Beige)
Largest City: Buffalo, NY
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President Grover Cleveland
PVI: D+3

Obama 2012: 55.0%
Romney 2012: 43.0%

Obama 2008: 55.4%
McCain 2008: 43.0%

Region Swing: 0.4% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 3.0% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
New York: 100%

Region Comment
The goal for this region was to combine the Buffalo, Rochester, and Syracuse metropolitan areas together and luckily I was able to do this. Brian Higgins or Kathy Hochul would both be strong in this region.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #15 on: May 05, 2015, 01:24:12 pm »
« Edited: May 05, 2015, 06:37:39 pm by Governor Gass3268 »

Massachusetts



New York City



New Jersey

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Gass3268
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« Reply #16 on: May 05, 2015, 01:50:17 pm »

Region: Northern Appalachia (Pink)
Largest City: Binghamton, NY
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President James Buchanan
PVI: R+11

Obama 2012: 39.2%
Romney 2012:58.8%

Obama 2008: 43.6%
McCain 2008: 54.7%

Region Swing: 8.5% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 5.1% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
New York: 27%
Pennsylvania: 73%

Region Comment
This region was constructed with the left over parts of New York and Pennsylvania. It worked out really well as I was able to connect most of the Southern Tier of New York with Central Pennsylvania aka Penntucky. Congressman Tom Reed would dominate in the Southern Tier while Congressmen Tom Marino, Glenn Thompson, and Bill Shuster (all from Pennsylvania) would be strong in this region.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #17 on: May 05, 2015, 01:59:18 pm »

Region: Skyland (Green)
Largest City: Paterson, NJ
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Associate Justice William Paterson
PVI: D+2

Obama 2012: 54.5%
Romney 2012: 45.0%

Obama 2008: 53.2%
McCain 2008: 45.6%

Region Swing: 2.0% Towards Democrats
Region Trend: 5.4% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
New Jersey: 100%

Region Comment
This was the last region I drew in New Jersey and my goal was to keep it 100% in Northern New Jersey. Luckily there was just enough population remaining in the state to reach the minimum population required. This would be a strong region for Bob Menendez if he wanted to move here. I could also see a "moderate" Republican like Leonard Lance would do well here.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #18 on: May 05, 2015, 02:12:36 pm »

Region: Jersey Shore (Blue)
Largest City: Trenton, NJ
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President Woodrow Wilson
PVI: D+1

Obama 2012: 53.3%
Romney 2012: 45.9%

Obama 2008: 52.5%
McCain 2008: 46.6%

Region Swing: 1.7% Towards Democrats
Region Trend: 5.1% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
New Jersey: 100%

Region Comment
I came up with this region after completing the New York City and Philadelphia regions. The objective here was to connect the remainder of South Jersey with Central/Lower Northern Jersey, but still leave enough people in the north for the region I just discussed. Congressman Frank Pallone Jr would have a good base here, but so would Republican Congressmen Frank LoBiondo and Chris Smith.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #19 on: May 05, 2015, 02:26:16 pm »

Region: City of Brotherly Love (Red)
Largest City: Philadelphia, PA
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Benjamin Franklin
PVI: D+20

Obama 2012: 71.9%
Romney 2012: 27.1%

Obama 2008: 71.7%
McCain 2008: 27.4%

Region Swing: 0.4% Towards Democrats
Region Trend: 3.8% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
New Jersey: 6%
Pennsylvania: 94%

Region Comment
The Philadelphia metropolitan area has enough people for essentially two regions, this region was designed to be the core region. This means that the City of Philadelphia is here plus most of the inner suburbs. Unfortunately Delaware, Montgomery and Philadelphia counties are 1% shy of the minimum population, I had to break up a county. I chose to add the minority areas of Camden County, NJ as I felt it would have more in common with a region anchored by the City of Philadelphia, rather than one made up of the suburbs. Many Democratic choices here to choose from. Former Mayor Michael Nutter, Congressman Bill Brady or Congressman Chaka Fattah.   
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Gass3268
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« Reply #20 on: May 05, 2015, 02:42:52 pm »

Region: Delaware River Valley (Beige)
Largest City: Wilmington, DE
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Vice President Joe Biden
PVI: D+6

Obama 2012: 56.4%
Romney 2012: 42.3%

Obama 2008: 58.7%
McCain 2008: 39.9%

Region Swing: 4.7% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 1.3% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Delaware: 18%
New Jersey: 43%
Pennsylvania: 39%

Region Comment
This takes the rest of the Philadelphia metropolitan area and needs up being an exclusively suburban region. Both Tom Carper and Chris Coons live in this district and with the even split between New Jersey and Pennsylvania, I could see either doing well in this region.
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« Reply #21 on: May 05, 2015, 06:43:08 pm »

Nice Work! Smiley
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Gass3268
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« Reply #22 on: May 06, 2015, 08:42:28 am »
« Edited: May 06, 2015, 08:45:34 am by Governor Gass3268 »

Region: Eastern Valleys (Cyan)
Largest City: Allentown, PA
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Congressman Thaddeus Stevens
PVI: R+2

Obama 2012: 48.3
Romney 2012: 50.0%

Obama 2008: 51.5%
McCain 2008: 47.0%

Region Swing: 6.2% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 2.8% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Pennsylvania: 100%

Region Comment
The objective of this region was to put together all of the major cities and metropolitan areas to the northeast of Philadelphia. This included Leigh Valley, Wyoming Valley, Harrisburg, Reading and Lancaster. The only areas that I did not have from for that should probably be in this region is York and the western Harrisburg suburbs. Both Bob Casey and Pat Toomey are from this region, so this could be an incumbent vs. incumbent battle, but I could also see either moving to a safer Pennsylvania region.  
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Gass3268
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« Reply #23 on: May 06, 2015, 08:58:45 am »

Region: Northwest Appalachia (Brown)
Largest City: Pittsburgh, PA
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Andrew Carnegie
PVI: R+2

Obama 2012: 48.5
Romney 2012: 50.0%

Obama 2008: 50.6%
McCain 2008: 47.8%

Region Swing: 4.3% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 0.9% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Pennsylvania: 100%

Region Comment
My first goal for this region was to have all of the Pittsburgh metropolitan area together, but that was pretty far away from the necessary population. So after that my objective was to add as much of Western Pennsylvania to this region. Tim Murphy would be a strong candidate here for the Republicans while former Congressman Jason Altmire and current Congressman Michael Doyle would both be good choices for the Democrats.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #24 on: May 06, 2015, 09:17:39 am »
« Edited: May 06, 2015, 09:54:45 am by Governor Gass3268 »

Region: Upper Chesapeake Bay (Yellow)
Largest City: Baltimore, MD
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Harriet Tubman
PVI: D+5

Obama 2012: 56.6%
Romney 2012: 41.0%

Obama 2008: 56.4%
McCain 2008: 41.7%

Region Swing: 1.1% Towards Democrats
Region Trend: 0.9% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Maryland: 100%

Region Comment
When drawing this region I wanted it to include all of the Baltimore metropolitan area and the remaining counties that were not part of the Eastern Shore, Washington metropolitan area or Western Panhandle. Unfortunately this was not enough people for one region, so I had to go into the Eastern Shore pretty substantially. This would be Barbara Mikulski's region, but with her retirement I could see Ben Cardin running in this seat as I would assume he would still be in the house.
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