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  100 Senate Regions
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Author Topic: 100 Senate Regions  (Read 16581 times)
Gass3268
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« Reply #100 on: May 15, 2015, 02:13:46 pm »

Here is the map again for this page:

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Gass3268
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« Reply #101 on: May 15, 2015, 02:21:57 pm »

Region: Eastern Corn Belt & Little Egypt (Purple)
Largest City: Rockford, IL
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President Abraham Lincoln
PVI: R+5

Obama 2012: 44.3%
Romney 2012: 56.4%

Obama 2008: 49.0%
McCain 2008: 49.0%

Region Swing: 12.1% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 8.7% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Illinois: 100%

Region Comment
I was very lucky that after drawing the 3 Chicago regions, the St. Louis region, and the Iowa region that the remainder of Illinois was just barely under the maximum population allowed for a region. Senator Dick Durbin lives in this region and while he would have been successful in past years when the downstate area was more Democratic, this region has really swung against the Democratic Party. He would be the Democrats best bet for this region, but he would still in all likelihood lose. The best choice for the Republicans would be Congressman Rodney Davis as he's been successfully representing an even PVI seat in Congress for the past 2 years. He would do extremely well in this region.
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muon2
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« Reply #102 on: May 17, 2015, 08:53:43 pm »

Here's a more complete picture of how I would do SoCal. Overall the seven colored districts are within 40 K of the ideal population. There are two solid Latino VRA districts and one opportunity district.

district 6 (3078K): WVAP 56.6%, HVAP 23.8%, AVAP 11.3%; pres 08: D 66.9%, gov 10: D 59.6%.
district 7 (3057K): WVAP 46.9%, HVAP 27.9%, AVAP 16.6%; pres 08: D 56.4%, gov 10: D 50.7%.
district 8 (3088K): WVAP 11.9%, BVAP 13.9%, HVAP 62.1%, AVAP 10.5%; pres 08: D 82.7%, gov 10: D 81.5%.
district 9 (3070K): WVAP 18.4%, HVAP 62.0%, AVAP 14.8%; pres 08: D 64.8%, gov 10: D 62.0%.
district 10 (3109K): WVAP 53.8%, HVAP 21.1%, AVAP 19.2%; pres 08: D 49.3%, gov 10: D 40.1%.
district 11 (3072K): WVAP 35.3%, HVAP 49.5%; pres 08: D 57.1%, gov 10: D 52.7%.
district 12 (3095K): WVAP 52.9%, HVAP 27.9%, AVAP 11.6%; pres 08: D 55.1%, gov 10: D 46.9%.

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Ebsy
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« Reply #103 on: May 17, 2015, 08:56:41 pm »

Region: Gateway To The West (Yellow)
Largest City: St. Louis, MO
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Mark Twain
PVI: D+2

Obama 2012: 51.7%
Romney 2012: 47.2%

Obama 2008: 56.5%
McCain 2008: 42.2%

Region Swing: 9.7% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 6.3% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Illinois: 28%
Missouri: 72%

Region Comment
This region was designed to include all of the St. Louis Metropolitan area, plus a few counties that surround it in both Illinois and Missouri that get it to the desired population. This seat leans Democratic, but it swung heavily to the Republicans in 2012. Democrats best bet would be former Congressman Russ Carnahan and Congresswoman Ann Wagner would be the best candidate for the Republicans.
You do realize Claire McCaskill lives in the region, right?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #104 on: May 18, 2015, 12:05:10 pm »

Region: Gateway To The West (Yellow)
Largest City: St. Louis, MO
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Mark Twain
PVI: D+2

Obama 2012: 51.7%
Romney 2012: 47.2%

Obama 2008: 56.5%
McCain 2008: 42.2%

Region Swing: 9.7% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 6.3% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Illinois: 28%
Missouri: 72%

Region Comment
This region was designed to include all of the St. Louis Metropolitan area, plus a few counties that surround it in both Illinois and Missouri that get it to the desired population. This seat leans Democratic, but it swung heavily to the Republicans in 2012. Democrats best bet would be former Congressman Russ Carnahan and Congresswoman Ann Wagner would be the best candidate for the Republicans.
You do realize Claire McCaskill lives in the region, right?

She moved there from Kansas City? She represented Kansas City in the State House and was the Jackson County Prosecutor. So I figured she was from that part of the state.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #105 on: May 18, 2015, 12:17:02 pm »

Here's a more complete picture of how I would do SoCal. Overall the seven colored districts are within 40 K of the ideal population. There are two solid Latino VRA districts and one opportunity district.

district 6 (3078K): WVAP 56.6%, HVAP 23.8%, AVAP 11.3%; pres 08: D 66.9%, gov 10: D 59.6%.
district 7 (3057K): WVAP 46.9%, HVAP 27.9%, AVAP 16.6%; pres 08: D 56.4%, gov 10: D 50.7%.
district 8 (3088K): WVAP 11.9%, BVAP 13.9%, HVAP 62.1%, AVAP 10.5%; pres 08: D 82.7%, gov 10: D 81.5%.
district 9 (3070K): WVAP 18.4%, HVAP 62.0%, AVAP 14.8%; pres 08: D 64.8%, gov 10: D 62.0%.
district 10 (3109K): WVAP 53.8%, HVAP 21.1%, AVAP 19.2%; pres 08: D 49.3%, gov 10: D 40.1%.
district 11 (3072K): WVAP 35.3%, HVAP 49.5%; pres 08: D 57.1%, gov 10: D 52.7%.
district 12 (3095K): WVAP 52.9%, HVAP 27.9%, AVAP 11.6%; pres 08: D 55.1%, gov 10: D 46.9%.



I'm going to try to use this as a guide and create 2 Hispanic regions. I think I am going to need to make sure the southeastern part of California is available for Arizona.
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muon2
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« Reply #106 on: May 18, 2015, 06:26:03 pm »

Here's a more complete picture of how I would do SoCal. Overall the seven colored districts are within 40 K of the ideal population. There are two solid Latino VRA districts and one opportunity district.

district 6 (3078K): WVAP 56.6%, HVAP 23.8%, AVAP 11.3%; pres 08: D 66.9%, gov 10: D 59.6%.
district 7 (3057K): WVAP 46.9%, HVAP 27.9%, AVAP 16.6%; pres 08: D 56.4%, gov 10: D 50.7%.
district 8 (3088K): WVAP 11.9%, BVAP 13.9%, HVAP 62.1%, AVAP 10.5%; pres 08: D 82.7%, gov 10: D 81.5%.
district 9 (3070K): WVAP 18.4%, HVAP 62.0%, AVAP 14.8%; pres 08: D 64.8%, gov 10: D 62.0%.
district 10 (3109K): WVAP 53.8%, HVAP 21.1%, AVAP 19.2%; pres 08: D 49.3%, gov 10: D 40.1%.
district 11 (3072K): WVAP 35.3%, HVAP 49.5%; pres 08: D 57.1%, gov 10: D 52.7%.
district 12 (3095K): WVAP 52.9%, HVAP 27.9%, AVAP 11.6%; pres 08: D 55.1%, gov 10: D 46.9%.



I'm going to try to use this as a guide and create 2 Hispanic regions. I think I am going to need to make sure the southeastern part of California is available for Arizona.

But I don't see how you can justify both a county split and a UCC chop which happened in your initial map there with Riverside. You really don't do anything like that anywhere else on your map. I can see moving Imperial to AZ and adding San Luis Obispo to SoCal which keeps the population within limits. It does mean that the Inland Empire district would lose some opportunity for Latinos.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #107 on: May 18, 2015, 06:50:00 pm »
« Edited: May 18, 2015, 06:54:22 pm by Ebsy »

You do realize Claire McCaskill lives in the region, right?

She moved there from Kansas City? She represented Kansas City in the State House and was the Jackson County Prosecutor. So I figured she was from that part of the state.

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http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/claire-mccaskill-s-wealth-comes-into-focus/article_0e8be6a2-99ad-59c0-9240-54767ef29f5a.html

At some point, probably after meeting her husband, she moved to Kirkwood, a cable car suburb of St. Louis.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #108 on: May 18, 2015, 07:36:58 pm »

Here's a more complete picture of how I would do SoCal. Overall the seven colored districts are within 40 K of the ideal population. There are two solid Latino VRA districts and one opportunity district.

district 6 (3078K): WVAP 56.6%, HVAP 23.8%, AVAP 11.3%; pres 08: D 66.9%, gov 10: D 59.6%.
district 7 (3057K): WVAP 46.9%, HVAP 27.9%, AVAP 16.6%; pres 08: D 56.4%, gov 10: D 50.7%.
district 8 (3088K): WVAP 11.9%, BVAP 13.9%, HVAP 62.1%, AVAP 10.5%; pres 08: D 82.7%, gov 10: D 81.5%.
district 9 (3070K): WVAP 18.4%, HVAP 62.0%, AVAP 14.8%; pres 08: D 64.8%, gov 10: D 62.0%.
district 10 (3109K): WVAP 53.8%, HVAP 21.1%, AVAP 19.2%; pres 08: D 49.3%, gov 10: D 40.1%.
district 11 (3072K): WVAP 35.3%, HVAP 49.5%; pres 08: D 57.1%, gov 10: D 52.7%.
district 12 (3095K): WVAP 52.9%, HVAP 27.9%, AVAP 11.6%; pres 08: D 55.1%, gov 10: D 46.9%.



I'm going to try to use this as a guide and create 2 Hispanic regions. I think I am going to need to make sure the southeastern part of California is available for Arizona.

But I don't see how you can justify both a county split and a UCC chop which happened in your initial map there with Riverside. You really don't do anything like that anywhere else on your map. I can see moving Imperial to AZ and adding San Luis Obispo to SoCal which keeps the population within limits. It does mean that the Inland Empire district would lose some opportunity for Latinos.

If I keep it the way you have it, it really messes up the rest of the Southwest and Rocky Mountain areas. I would probably have to split up Nevada and or Utah. When I have some time I'll try to incorporate some of your ideas, while trying to keep Nevada and Utah together. I definitely want to keep the 2 Hispanic regions.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #109 on: May 18, 2015, 07:37:46 pm »

You do realize Claire McCaskill lives in the region, right?

She moved there from Kansas City? She represented Kansas City in the State House and was the Jackson County Prosecutor. So I figured she was from that part of the state.

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http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/claire-mccaskill-s-wealth-comes-into-focus/article_0e8be6a2-99ad-59c0-9240-54767ef29f5a.html

At some point, probably after meeting her husband, she moved to Kirkwood, a cable car suburb of St. Louis.

Thank you for that information! It is so hard to find where Senators live in their home states.
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muon2
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« Reply #110 on: May 18, 2015, 09:47:23 pm »
« Edited: May 18, 2015, 10:31:43 pm by muon2 »


If I keep it the way you have it, it really messes up the rest of the Southwest and Rocky Mountain areas. I would probably have to split up Nevada and or Utah. When I have some time I'll try to incorporate some of your ideas, while trying to keep Nevada and Utah together. I definitely want to keep the 2 Hispanic regions.

I think you are too attached to the unity of UT and NV. Yes, you should try to keep states intact, but not at the expense of chopping a UCC county in a state elsewhere. I also think that you are too wedded to putting all the Mormon areas together. I could just as well make the case for reuniting the historic Deseret area for the Mormons which would link all of NV (minus Clark) with UT.

For example, ID+WY+MT are a perfect match for one district, so why not preserve those states as a group. AK can arguably go with coastal WA since there are both flights and ferries between those points, whereas there aren't many if any from ID/MT to AK.
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muon2
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« Reply #111 on: May 19, 2015, 09:54:13 am »

To follow up, here's one way I would embed a variant of my SoCal in the western part of the plan. I did shift Imperial to AZ but split no counties other than those in the LA area (6 districts) and Phoenix (2 districts). Except for the VRA districts, I minimized UCC splits and tried to minimize state line crossings. HI is with SF and AK is with Tacoma.

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Gass3268
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« Reply #112 on: May 19, 2015, 10:26:36 am »

To follow up, here's one way I would embed a variant of my SoCal in the western part of the plan. I did shift Imperial to AZ but split no counties other than those in the LA area (6 districts) and Phoenix (2 districts). Except for the VRA districts, I minimized UCC splits and tried to minimize state line crossings. HI is with SF and AK is with Tacoma.



This is doable. I might make some changes on the edges, but I like this. What did you do with the Inland Empire district after moving it out of Imperial County, CA?
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muon2
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« Reply #113 on: May 19, 2015, 11:27:13 pm »

To follow up, here's one way I would embed a variant of my SoCal in the western part of the plan. I did shift Imperial to AZ but split no counties other than those in the LA area (6 districts) and Phoenix (2 districts). Except for the VRA districts, I minimized UCC splits and tried to minimize state line crossings. HI is with SF and AK is with Tacoma.



This is doable. I might make some changes on the edges, but I like this. What did you do with the Inland Empire district after moving it out of Imperial County, CA?

I added most of Rancho Cucamonga to the IE district to replace Imperial. The effect was to move the VAP to 47.3%. Then the Encino area of LA was shifted from the Coastal district to the Antelope Valley district.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #114 on: May 20, 2015, 07:50:01 am »

To follow up, here's one way I would embed a variant of my SoCal in the western part of the plan. I did shift Imperial to AZ but split no counties other than those in the LA area (6 districts) and Phoenix (2 districts). Except for the VRA districts, I minimized UCC splits and tried to minimize state line crossings. HI is with SF and AK is with Tacoma.



This is doable. I might make some changes on the edges, but I like this. What did you do with the Inland Empire district after moving it out of Imperial County, CA?

I added most of Rancho Cucamonga to the IE district to replace Imperial. The effect was to move the VAP to 47.3%. Then the Encino area of LA was shifted from the Coastal district to the Antelope Valley district.

Could I see an updated picture of the area, the population of each district, and the vote totals (for Obama and McCain, unfortunately I don't think DRA has the other vote, which I'll have to estimate). I need that information to figure out 2012 estimates and the PVI. Thanks for you help Moun!
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muon2
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« Reply #115 on: May 20, 2015, 08:49:17 am »



I did a little more population balancing. The new line between 6 and 7 is Mulholland Dr, and between 7 and 11 west of San Bernardino is I-15 and I-210.

district 6 (3075K): WVAP 56.9%, HVAP 24.0%, AVAP 11.0%; pres 08: D 65.0%, gov 10: D 57.8%.
district 7 (3138K): WVAP 49.3%, HVAP 26.2%, AVAP 16.0%; pres 08: D 58.2%, gov 10: D 52.6%.
district 8 (3088K): WVAP 11.9%, BVAP 13.9%, HVAP 62.1%, AVAP 10.5%; pres 08: D 82.7%, gov 10: D 81.5%.
district 9 (3075K): WVAP 18.4%, HVAP 62.0%, AVAP 14.8%; pres 08: D 64.8%, gov 10: D 62.0%.
district 10 (3109K): WVAP 53.8%, HVAP 21.1%, AVAP 19.2%; pres 08: D 49.3%, gov 10: D 40.1%.
district 11 (3086K): WVAP 36.9%, HVAP 47.0%; pres 08: D 56.5%, gov 10: D 51.9%.
district 12 (3095K): WVAP 52.9%, HVAP 27.9%, AVAP 11.6%; pres 08: D 55.1%, gov 10: D 46.9%.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #116 on: May 20, 2015, 12:09:50 pm »

I actually need the raw vote totals for those districts (except 12 which I can get on my own.). Thanks!
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muon2
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« Reply #117 on: May 20, 2015, 09:33:15 pm »

district 6: Obama 870,675; McCain 467,867
district 7: Obama 642,003; McCain 461,698
district 8: Obama 577,193; McCain 121,150
district 9: Obama 512,419; McCain 278,770
district 10: Obama 626,812; McCain 643,847
district 11: Obama 475,037; McCain 366,040
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Gass3268
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« Reply #118 on: May 21, 2015, 07:54:25 am »

district 6: Obama 870,675; McCain 467,867
district 7: Obama 642,003; McCain 461,698
district 8: Obama 577,193; McCain 121,150
district 9: Obama 512,419; McCain 278,770
district 10: Obama 626,812; McCain 643,847
district 11: Obama 475,037; McCain 366,040

Thanks a lot!
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