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  100 Senate Regions
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Author Topic: 100 Senate Regions  (Read 16590 times)
Gass3268
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« Reply #25 on: May 06, 2015, 09:43:03 am »

Reposting the map so everyone can see it on this page.

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dpmapper
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« Reply #26 on: May 06, 2015, 09:52:34 am »


Region Comment
The objective of this region was to put together all of the major cities and metropolitan areas to the northeast of Philadelphia. This included Leigh Valley, Wyoming Valley, Harrisburg, Reading and Lancaster. The only areas that I did not have from for that should probably be in this region is York and the western Harrisburg suburbs. Both Bob Casey and Pat Toomey are from this region, so this could be an incumbent vs. incumbent battle, but I could also see either moving to a safer Pennsylvania region.  

I'd put York and the rest of the Harrisburg metro in there, exchanging with Scranton.  Scranton/Wilkes-Barre belong with the NY southern tier/PA northern tier much more than York does.  Similarly I'd put Erie in with those tiers; you can send Pittsburgh east rather than north. 
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Gass3268
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« Reply #27 on: May 06, 2015, 09:53:31 am »

Region: Mouth Of The Potomac (Orange)
Largest City: Washington, DC
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Duke Ellington
PVI: D+24

Obama 2012: 76.1%
Romney 2012: 22.1%

Obama 2008: 76.3%
McCain 2008: 22.5%

Region Swing: 0.1% Towards Democrats
Region Trend: 3.5% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
District of Columbia: 20%
Maryland: 80%

Region Comment
The goal when drawing this region was it to be only the District of Columbia and the DC Maryland suburbs. Both Chris Van Hollen and Donna Edwards would run for the Senate seat in this region.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #28 on: May 06, 2015, 08:25:35 pm »


Region Comment
The objective of this region was to put together all of the major cities and metropolitan areas to the northeast of Philadelphia. This included Leigh Valley, Wyoming Valley, Harrisburg, Reading and Lancaster. The only areas that I did not have from for that should probably be in this region is York and the western Harrisburg suburbs. Both Bob Casey and Pat Toomey are from this region, so this could be an incumbent vs. incumbent battle, but I could also see either moving to a safer Pennsylvania region.  

I'd put York and the rest of the Harrisburg metro in there, exchanging with Scranton.  Scranton/Wilkes-Barre belong with the NY southern tier/PA northern tier much more than York does.  Similarly I'd put Erie in with those tiers; you can send Pittsburgh east rather than north. 

Thank you for your suggestions, but I am gonna keep it the way I have. I like having a Western PA, Central PA and Eastern PA regions.
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dpmapper
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« Reply #29 on: May 06, 2015, 09:24:44 pm »


Region Comment
The objective of this region was to put together all of the major cities and metropolitan areas to the northeast of Philadelphia. This included Leigh Valley, Wyoming Valley, Harrisburg, Reading and Lancaster. The only areas that I did not have from for that should probably be in this region is York and the western Harrisburg suburbs. Both Bob Casey and Pat Toomey are from this region, so this could be an incumbent vs. incumbent battle, but I could also see either moving to a safer Pennsylvania region.  

I'd put York and the rest of the Harrisburg metro in there, exchanging with Scranton.  Scranton/Wilkes-Barre belong with the NY southern tier/PA northern tier much more than York does.  Similarly I'd put Erie in with those tiers; you can send Pittsburgh east rather than north. 

Thank you for your suggestions, but I am gonna keep it the way I have. I like having a Western PA, Central PA and Eastern PA regions.

Seems overly artificial to prefer boundaries simply because they're north-south, when the cultural and geographic boundaries clearly run in other directions. 

eg, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Mountain_%28Pennsylvania%29
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Gass3268
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« Reply #30 on: May 07, 2015, 07:49:39 am »


Region Comment
The objective of this region was to put together all of the major cities and metropolitan areas to the northeast of Philadelphia. This included Leigh Valley, Wyoming Valley, Harrisburg, Reading and Lancaster. The only areas that I did not have from for that should probably be in this region is York and the western Harrisburg suburbs. Both Bob Casey and Pat Toomey are from this region, so this could be an incumbent vs. incumbent battle, but I could also see either moving to a safer Pennsylvania region.  

I'd put York and the rest of the Harrisburg metro in there, exchanging with Scranton.  Scranton/Wilkes-Barre belong with the NY southern tier/PA northern tier much more than York does.  Similarly I'd put Erie in with those tiers; you can send Pittsburgh east rather than north. 

Thank you for your suggestions, but I am gonna keep it the way I have. I like having a Western PA, Central PA and Eastern PA regions.

Seems overly artificial to prefer boundaries simply because they're north-south, when the cultural and geographic boundaries clearly run in other directions. 

eg, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Mountain_%28Pennsylvania%29

I'll look into the changes you have proposed and then post it when I'm done posting the data for all the other regions. See what the other readers think.
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dpmapper
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« Reply #31 on: May 07, 2015, 07:59:23 am »


I'll look into the changes you have proposed and then post it when I'm done posting the data for all the other regions. See what the other readers think.

Cool.  Thanks for the series, it's interesting. 
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Gass3268
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« Reply #32 on: May 07, 2015, 08:30:19 am »
« Edited: May 07, 2015, 02:16:12 pm by Governor Gass3268 »

Region: Northern Piedmont (Green)
Largest City: Arlington, VA
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President George Washington
PVI: D+6

Obama 2012: 57.3%
Romney 2012: 41.9%

Obama 2008: 58.2%
McCain 2008: 40.8%

Region Swing: 2.1% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 1.3% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Virginia: 100

Region Comment
Originally for this region I just wanted the Washington suburbs in Virginia (not including Clarke, Paige or Warren counties as from personal experience they are clearly part of the Shenandoah area). Unfortunately that only results in about 60% of what is needed for a region. Originally I wanted to go get all of the eastern peninsula counties along and south of the Potomac River, but they are way too under-populated to get the region to the necessary population. Therefore I had to move south and add the Charlottesville metropolitan area to this region. Mark Warner lives in Northern Virginia and he would dominate this region.  
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Gass3268
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« Reply #33 on: May 07, 2015, 08:46:19 am »

Region: Lower Chesapeake Bay (Purple)
Largest City: Virginia Beach, VA
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Pocahontas
PVI: D+1

Obama 2012: 52.8%
Romney 2012: 46.0%

Obama 2008: 53.5%
McCain 2008: 45.7%

Region Swing: 1.0% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 2.4% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Delaware: 11%
Maryland: 6%
North Carolina: 24%
Virginia: 59%

Region Comment
When drawing this district I wanted it to be what was left of the Delvamar peninsula along with the Hampton Roads metropolitan area (plus Sussex County, VA which is in the Richmond metropolitan area but looks so much better when added to this region). Unfortunately this resulted in the region still needing about 750,000 to reach minimum population. Adding the Richmond metropolitan area would have it go way over the maximum allowed population, so I had to go into Northeast North Carolina. Republican Congressman Scott Rigell would a very strong candidate for this region give his relative moderate imagine and the fact he represents the largest city in this region. Congressmen Bobby Scott of Newport News, VA and G.K. Butterfield of Wilson, NC.
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muon2
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« Reply #34 on: May 07, 2015, 09:01:52 am »

The TX splits don't seem to follow your rules. The DFW urban county cluster is good for two senate districts one of which is the majority-minority carve out, but Johnson and Ellis were left out in your proposal. Also in south TX you split the Austin UCC, but it doesn't create a VRA district or even a real minority opportunity district. The stronger minority situation would link San Antonio to El Paso and bring the Lower Rio Grande northward through Corpus Christi.

I'll post what I'm describing later this morning.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #35 on: May 07, 2015, 09:06:03 am »

Region: Tobacco Road (Cyan)
Largest City: Raleigh, NC
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Governor Patrick Henry
PVI: D+4

Obama 2012: 55.1%
Romney 2012: 43.6%

Obama 2008: 56.3%
McCain 2008: 42.6%

Region Swing: 2.2% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 1.2% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
North Carolina: 57%
Virginia: 43%

Region Comment
When drawing this district I first wanted it to be the Richmond metropolitan area and then go from there on what I needed to add. The Richmond metropolitan area is about 40% of what is needed for a region. At first I thought of adding the Shenandoah Valley area, but that would not have had enough people and it would have been a very ugly looking region and the two areas really don't have much in common with the Charlottesville area blocking the two. So instead I went into North Carolina and added the Research Triangle area (Durham-Chapel Hill and Raleigh metropolitan areas). Tim Kaine is from Richmond and would in all likelihood be the Senator from this region.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #36 on: May 07, 2015, 09:11:27 am »
« Edited: May 07, 2015, 10:29:18 am by Governor Gass3268 »

The TX splits don't seem to follow your rules. The DFW urban county cluster is good for two senate districts one of which is the majority-minority carve out, but Johnson and Ellis were left out in your proposal. Also in south TX you split the Austin UCC, but it doesn't create a VRA district or even a real minority opportunity district. The stronger minority situation would link San Antonio to El Paso and bring the Lower Rio Grande northward through Corpus Christi.

I'll post what I'm describing later this morning.

I like your idea for South Texas, this was a pretty frustrating are because both Austin and San Antonio UCC's don't have enough people for a region each, but are too large for one region together. I never thought of splitting the Rio Grande district, but that could work. Ellis/Johnson could not fit in the suburban DFW region because of geography and it put the region over the population limit. Unless you have a better way to draw it?
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muon2
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« Reply #37 on: May 07, 2015, 10:21:37 am »

The TX splits don't seem to follow your rules. The DFW urban county cluster is good for two senate districts one of which is the majority-minority carve out, but Johnson and Ellis were left out in your proposal. Also in south TX you split the Austin UCC, but it doesn't create a VRA district or even a real minority opportunity district. The stronger minority situation would link San Antonio to El Paso and bring the Lower Rio Grande northward through Corpus Christi.

I'll post what I'm describing later this morning.

I like your idea for South Texas, but Ellis/Johnson could not fit in the suburban DFW region because of geography and it put the region over the population limit. Unless you have a better way to draw it?

Here's what I put together respecting all the UCCs. 2 VRA districts are established in south TX (58.1% and 67.2% HVAP) and 2 minority coalition districts are established in DFW and Houston. All four were carried by Obama in 2008.

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Gass3268
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« Reply #38 on: May 07, 2015, 10:40:22 am »

The TX splits don't seem to follow your rules. The DFW urban county cluster is good for two senate districts one of which is the majority-minority carve out, but Johnson and Ellis were left out in your proposal. Also in south TX you split the Austin UCC, but it doesn't create a VRA district or even a real minority opportunity district. The stronger minority situation would link San Antonio to El Paso and bring the Lower Rio Grande northward through Corpus Christi.

I'll post what I'm describing later this morning.

I like your idea for South Texas, but Ellis/Johnson could not fit in the suburban DFW region because of geography and it put the region over the population limit. Unless you have a better way to draw it?

Here's what I put together respecting all the UCCs. 2 VRA districts are established in south TX (58.1% and 67.2% HVAP) and 2 minority coalition districts are established in DFW and Houston. All four were carried by Obama in 2008.



I really like this. Do you happen to have the population and raw vote totals for the inner DFW and Houston regions? I need those to do the add-ups and calculations for PVI's, swings, trends and population deviation.
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muon2
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« Reply #39 on: May 07, 2015, 11:26:05 am »

The TX splits don't seem to follow your rules. The DFW urban county cluster is good for two senate districts one of which is the majority-minority carve out, but Johnson and Ellis were left out in your proposal. Also in south TX you split the Austin UCC, but it doesn't create a VRA district or even a real minority opportunity district. The stronger minority situation would link San Antonio to El Paso and bring the Lower Rio Grande northward through Corpus Christi.

I'll post what I'm describing later this morning.

I like your idea for South Texas, but Ellis/Johnson could not fit in the suburban DFW region because of geography and it put the region over the population limit. Unless you have a better way to draw it?

Here's what I put together respecting all the UCCs. 2 VRA districts are established in south TX (58.1% and 67.2% HVAP) and 2 minority coalition districts are established in DFW and Houston. All four were carried by Obama in 2008.



I really like this. Do you happen to have the population and raw vote totals for the inner DFW and Houston regions? I need those to do the add-ups and calculations for PVI's, swings, trends and population deviation.

For DFW: 3,068,901 pop; 37.0% WVAP, 22.8% BVAP, 33.7% HVAP; Pres 08: D 540,244, R 370,312.

For Houston: 3,142,095 pop; 30.5% WVAP, 20.8% BVAP, 40.9% HVAP; Pres 08: D 487,391, R 349,032

I hope that helps. I am also curious how many Latino districts you have in CA. Based on 2010 numbers, there should be at least 3 where Latinos would control the outcome (50% HCVAP or > 60% HVAP).
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Gass3268
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« Reply #40 on: May 07, 2015, 12:34:35 pm »
« Edited: May 07, 2015, 02:15:54 pm by Governor Gass3268 »

Region: Triad & Shenandoah Valley  (Beige)
Largest City: Greensboro, NC
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Booker T. Washington
PVI: R+8

Obama 2012: 42.8%
Romney 2012: 55.6%

Obama 2008: 45.5%
McCain 2008: 53.4%

Region Swing: 4.9% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 1.5% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
North Carolina: 51%
Virginia: 49%

Region Comment
I drew this region after drawing the red Coal Country region. I was very happy that I was able to keep the entire Triad whole while adding what was left of Virginia. Richard Burr is from this region and he would probably represent it. Kay Hagen lives in Greensboro, but this is way too Republican for her.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #41 on: May 07, 2015, 01:06:53 pm »

The TX splits don't seem to follow your rules. The DFW urban county cluster is good for two senate districts one of which is the majority-minority carve out, but Johnson and Ellis were left out in your proposal. Also in south TX you split the Austin UCC, but it doesn't create a VRA district or even a real minority opportunity district. The stronger minority situation would link San Antonio to El Paso and bring the Lower Rio Grande northward through Corpus Christi.

I'll post what I'm describing later this morning.

I like your idea for South Texas, but Ellis/Johnson could not fit in the suburban DFW region because of geography and it put the region over the population limit. Unless you have a better way to draw it?

Here's what I put together respecting all the UCCs. 2 VRA districts are established in south TX (58.1% and 67.2% HVAP) and 2 minority coalition districts are established in DFW and Houston. All four were carried by Obama in 2008.


I really like this. Do you happen to have the population and raw vote totals for the inner DFW and Houston regions? I need those to do the add-ups and calculations for PVI's, swings, trends and population deviation.

For DFW: 3,068,901 pop; 37.0% WVAP, 22.8% BVAP, 33.7% HVAP; Pres 08: D 540,244, R 370,312.

For Houston: 3,142,095 pop; 30.5% WVAP, 20.8% BVAP, 40.9% HVAP; Pres 08: D 487,391, R 349,032

I hope that helps. I am also curious how many Latino districts you have in CA. Based on 2010 numbers, there should be at least 3 where Latinos would control the outcome (50% HCVAP or > 60% HVAP).

Thanks for that!

The Downtown/South Central Los Angeles region is over 50% HCVAP with a large black minority (like 20-25%) and whites only making up like 15%. The region to the east of it in LA County is like plurality Hispanic (around 40%) with a large Asian influence (around 30%) with whites around 25%. I also think the central valley district would also be over 50% or at least pretty close. I wish I could have had official demographic information for this, but my DRA runs extremely slow for basically any state larger than Virginia. Unless there is a place were I could get the data in like a excel sheet. If that was the case I could add everything up from what I have and maybe make some changes.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #42 on: May 07, 2015, 01:31:40 pm »

Region: Central Appalachia (Red)
Largest City: Charleston, WV
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Senate Majority Leader Robert Byrd
PVI: R+16

Obama 2012: 32.8%
Romney 2012: 64.9%

Obama 2008: 40.0%
McCain 2008: 58.1%

Region Swing: 14.1% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 10.7% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Kentucky: 25%
Maryland 8%
Virginia: 8%
West Virginia: 59%

Region Comment
My goal he was to keep as much of the southern Coal County together and I am very happy how this region turned out. Amazing to think that Bill Clinton probably won this region in both 92 and 96. Joe Manchin would have a decent shot to stay in the Senate, representing this region but I would not be shocked if someone like Shelly Moore Capito beat him.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #43 on: May 07, 2015, 01:42:55 pm »

Region: Bluegrass Country (Cyan)
Largest City: Louisville, KY
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Speaker Of The House Henry Clay
PVI: R+10

Obama 2012: 41.0%
Romney 2012: 57.3%

Obama 2008: 43.2%
McCain 2008: 55.2%

Region Swing: 4.3% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 0.9% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Indiana: 10%
Kentucky: 90%

Region Comment
My initial objective here was to have the Louisville metropolitan area and the rest of Kentucky together. Unfortunately there was just too much of suburban Louisville that I had to grab in Indiana. So I return I have the Jackson Purchase region of Kentucky to the Central/West Tennessee region as that area is culturally regarded as the most "Southern" region of Kentucky. Both Mitch McConnell and Rand Paul live in this region, so McConnell is probably the Senator from here. However a Paul primary of McConnell would be expected.
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« Reply #44 on: May 07, 2015, 02:01:18 pm »
« Edited: May 07, 2015, 02:31:32 pm by Governor Gass3268 »

Region: Sandhills & Pee Dee (Brown)
Largest City: Fayetteville, NC
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Governor Richard Dobbs Spaight
PVI: R+5

Obama 2012: 47.2%
Romney 2012: 51.9%

Obama 2008: 47.2%
McCain 2008: 51.9%

Region Swing: 0.1% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 3.3% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
North Carolina: 71%
South Carolina 29%

Region Comment
This was the last region that I drew in North Carolina and the Southeastern part of the state made up about 70% of what was needed for a region, so I had to get the rest from South Carolina. It was as able to get enough into the region without having to get into the Charleston or Columbia metropolitan areas, which was great. Mike McIntyre would be a strong candidate here for the Democrats if he was interested in jumping back into politics. Congressman Tom Rice from Myrtle Beach, SC would have a solid base of support too as a Republican.
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« Reply #45 on: May 07, 2015, 02:15:12 pm »
« Edited: May 07, 2015, 02:31:00 pm by Governor Gass3268 »

Region: Central Piedmont (Pink)
Largest City: Charlotte, NC
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President Andrew Jackson
PVI: R+7

Obama 2012: 43.8%
Romney 2012: 54.8%

Obama 2008: 45.1%
McCain 2008: 53.9%

Region Swing: 2.3% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 1.1% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
North Carolina: 87%
South Carolina 13%

Region Comment
This region combines the Charlotte metropolitan area and a portion of Western North Carolina that was needed to get this region to the necessary population. Thom Tillis has this region if he wants it.
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« Reply #46 on: May 07, 2015, 02:30:42 pm »

Region: Southern Appalachia (Blue)
Largest City: Knoxville, TN
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President Andrew Johnson
PVI: R+17

Obama 2012: 33.4%
Romney 2012: 64.8%

Obama 2008: 36.0%
McCain 2008: 62.5%

Region Swing: 5.0% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 1.6% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Georgia: 5%
North Carolina: 20%
Tennessee: 73%
Virginia: 3%

Region Comment
The goal for this region was to combine what was left with Eastern Tennessee. This included adding parts of the Bristol and Chattanooga metro areas that go into Virginia and Georgia respectively. Bob Corker would probably be Senator from this region.   
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« Reply #47 on: May 07, 2015, 04:39:09 pm »

I am also curious how many Latino districts you have in CA. Based on 2010 numbers, there should be at least 3 where Latinos would control the outcome (50% HCVAP or > 60% HVAP).

Thanks for that!

The Downtown/South Central Los Angeles region is over 50% HCVAP with a large black minority (like 20-25%) and whites only making up like 15%. The region to the east of it in LA County is like plurality Hispanic (around 40%) with a large Asian influence (around 30%) with whites around 25%. I also think the central valley district would also be over 50% or at least pretty close. I wish I could have had official demographic information for this, but my DRA runs extremely slow for basically any state larger than Virginia. Unless there is a place were I could get the data in like a excel sheet. If that was the case I could add everything up from what I have and maybe make some changes.

My thought is that there has to be some county crossings. For example one in LAC from San Fernando to south Central LA. One with the El Monte area linked to Norwalk and then to Santa Ana. Then one built from San Bernardino and Riverside, but I don't know if I can do it without Imperial. If my link allows I'll see what I can build.
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« Reply #48 on: May 08, 2015, 08:27:00 am »

Region: Cumberland & Plaines (Green)
Largest City: Nashville, TN
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President James K. Polk
PVI: R+12

Obama 2012: 38.0%
Romney 2012: 60.4%

Obama 2008: 41.10%
McCain 2008: 57.5%

Region Swing: 6.0% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 2.6% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Kentucky: 5%
Tennessee: 95%

Region Comment
The original objective of this region was for it to be Central Tennessee and Western Tennessee (minus Shelby County, which was always going to be added to a Mississippi Delta region). I was forced to add the Jackson Purchase area of Kentucky to this region in order to get the Bluegrass Country region under the maximum amount allowed. This would be Lamar Alexander's region.
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« Reply #49 on: May 08, 2015, 08:43:51 am »

Region: Congaree Swamps (Orange)
Largest City: Columbia, SC
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Vice President John C Calhoun
PVI: R+8

Obama 2012: 43.4%
Romney 2012: 55.1%

Obama 2008: 44.1%
McCain 2008: 54.6%

Region Swing: 1.2% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 2.2% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
South Carolina: 100%

Region Comment
When I first drew this area I wanted to have what was left of South Carolina split in two. The Charleston and Columbia metropolitan areas combined with the Augusta and Savannah metropolitan areas of Georgia, while the Northwest metros of Greenville and Spartanburg would join with the Northeast counties in Georgia and maybe the Atlanta suburbs. This did not work as there was too many people in Northwest South Carolina and Northern Georgia for one region, but not enough for two. So in the end I essentially kept what was left of South Carolina together. The Hilton Head area had to be added to a Georgia centric region, but this makes sense do to their economic connections with Savannah, GA. Both Lindsey Graham and Tim Scott are from this region, but imagine that Graham would be the current Senator.
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