Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 07, 2019, 06:48:37 am
News: 2020 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  General Politics
  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderator: muon2)
  100 Senate Regions
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 5 Print
Author Topic: 100 Senate Regions  (Read 16583 times)
Gass3268
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,333
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #50 on: May 08, 2015, 08:52:51 am »

Region: ATL (Purple)
Largest City: Atlanta, GA
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King J.
PVI: D+14

Obama 2012: 65.5%
Romney 2012: 32.9%

Obama 2008: 66.4%
McCain 2008: 33.0%

Region Swing: 0.7% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 2.7% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Georgia: 100%

Region Comment
The goal here was to create an African-American opportunity region, but unfortunately there are not enough African-Americans to have it over 50% VAP. There are however enough Asian and Hispanics that are of voting age that it is very possible to create a minority-majority collation region that would elect an African American to Congress. Congressman John Lewis would be my choice to run from this region.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,333
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #51 on: May 08, 2015, 09:39:30 am »

I should probably at this point discuss how I got the Obama-Romney numbers for areas where I had to split the counties. For Essex County, MA, Bergen County, NJ, Essex County, NJ, Cobb County, GA, Fulton County, GA and Gwinnett County, GA I was able to find ward/precinct maps that matched the lines in DRA and I was able to find the corresponding 2012 data. Unfortunately do to either map changes or huge burden presented by the sheer size of the counties, I had to make estimates for Bronx County, NY, Kings County, NY, New York County, NY, Queens County, NY, Cook County, IL, Harris County, TX, Dallas County, TX, Tarrant County, TX, Maricopa County, AZ and Los Angeles County, CA. The estimates were done by applying the total county swing to each part of the county. I know this isn't a perfect method, but I imagine it is close and that the percentages wouldn't be off by much. 
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,333
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #52 on: May 08, 2015, 10:07:28 am »

Region: Southern Piedmont (Beige)
Largest City: Sandy Springs, GA
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Speaker Of The House Newt Gingrich
PVI: R+23

Obama 2012: 27.2%
Romney 2012: 71.3%

Obama 2008: 30.5%
McCain 2008: 68.3%

Region Swing: 6.2% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 2.8% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Georgia: 100%

Region Comment
This region was drawn to be the non-minority Atlanta suburban region. There was not enough people purely in the outer Atlanta metropolitan area counties, so counties to the north and west of the metropolitan area had to be added to this region. Johnny Isakson is from suburban Marietta, so he would in all likelihood be the Senator for this region.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,333
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #53 on: May 08, 2015, 10:19:01 am »

Region: Southern Coastal Plain (Yellow)
Largest City: Augusta, GA
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President Jimmy Carter
PVI: R+6

Obama 2012: 45.1%
Romney 2012: 53.7%

Obama 2008: 45.9%
McCain 2008: 52.9%

Region Swing: 1.6% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 1.8% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Georgia: 94%
South Carolina: 6%

Region Comment
My original hope for this district was that it could be the remainder of the Georgia, plus the two counties that was left over from South Carolina. Unfortunately there was about 15% more than allowed in Georgia, so I had to give a good chuck of deep Southern Georgia to a Northern Florida/Jacksonville metropolitan region. Former Republican Congressman Jack Kingston lives this region, formally represented a significant portion of it, and won a lot of it in his primary against Perdue. For the Democrats it would be fun to see how John Barrow would do here now that he's not in the House anymore.
Logged
muon2
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15,466


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #54 on: May 08, 2015, 10:31:01 am »

As I continue to look at CA between hangs of DRA, I conclude that there should be two 60+ HVAP districts in LAC where one connects to OC with Anaheim/Santa Ana. The best I could do with SB and Riverside was to add Pomona then stretch it all the way to Imperial then back along the border to SW SD county. That only gets to 58% HVAP, so 60+ isn't plausible there.

Other observations of CA. CA is just barely over 12 districts. SoCal minus Kern and Imperial is just right for 7 districts. Kern plus the north is almost exactly 5 districts. So keep Imperial with Arizona, but I'm not sure the Riverside chop follows your rules.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,333
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #55 on: May 08, 2015, 10:34:37 am »

Region: First & Nature Coasts (Cyan)
Largest City: Jacksonville, FL
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: A. Philip Randolph
PVI: R+8

Obama 2012: 42.7%
Romney 2012: 56.0%

Obama 2008: 44.3%
McCain 2008: 54.6%

Region Swing: 3.0% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 0.4% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Florida: 84%
Georgia: 16%

Region Comment
I drew this region after I drew all of the other regions south of it in Florida. Was pleased that I was able use the Apalachicola River as the western boundary, which was the old boundary line between East and West Florida. Plus I had to had 16% from South Georgia so this region could reach the necessary minimum population and the South Georgia region could be under the minimum. David Perdue lives in this region, but I imagine that someone from the Jacksonville area would represent this region. Someone like Congressman Ron DeSantis who is currently running to replace Marco Rubio.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,333
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #56 on: May 08, 2015, 11:10:11 am »

As I continue to look at CA between hangs of DRA, I conclude that there should be two 60+ HVAP districts in LAC where one connects to OC with Anaheim/Santa Ana. The best I could do with SB and Riverside was to add Pomona then stretch it all the way to Imperial then back along the border to SW SD county. That only gets to 58% HVAP, so 60+ isn't plausible there.

Other observations of CA. CA is just barely over 12 districts. SoCal minus Kern and Imperial is just right for 7 districts. Kern plus the north is almost exactly 5 districts. So keep Imperial with Arizona, but I'm not sure the Riverside chop follows your rules.

I really don't know yet what I am going to do with Southern California. I like the fact that Orange and San Diego counties have exactly enough for each to be their own region and I don't think I want to mess with that. I should have noted with my rules that no one rule is more important than the other and I should have noted that minority-majority collation regions, like the South Central Black/Hispanic and the Eastern LA County Asian/Hispanic regions, are acceptable. I feel like due to the sheer size of these regions, having minority collations would be necessary and probably allowable. My fear with making your proposed changes is that it would really mess up and dramatically alter the rest of the regions in the Southwest, especially in Arizona, Nevada and Utah. 
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,333
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #57 on: May 08, 2015, 12:47:05 pm »

Region: Everglades & Southern Gold Coast (Blue)
Largest City: Miami, FL
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Ernest Hemmingway
PVI: D+4

Obama 2012: 57.2%
Romney 2012: 42.2%

Obama 2008: 54.8%
McCain 2008: 44.6%

Region Swing: 4.9% Towards Democrats
Region Trend: 8.3% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Florida: 100%

Region Comment
My main objective for Florida this time around was to keep all of the counties whole. I was able to do that by putting Miami Dade County with some of the Southwestern Florida counties. This would still be a majority Hispanic region. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and Mario Diaz-Balart would both be strong candidates for the Republicans, while this would also be a good spot for former Congressman, and Cuban Democrat, Joe Garcia.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,333
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #58 on: May 08, 2015, 12:54:00 pm »

Region: Northern Gold Coast (Blue)
Largest City: Fort Lauderdale, FL
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Philip Don Estridge
PVI: D+12

Obama 2012: 63.1%
Romney 2012: 36.2%

Obama 2008: 64.4%
McCain 2008: 35.0%

Region Swing: 2.4% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 1.0% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Florida: 100%

Region Comment
By combing parts of Southwestern Florida with Miami Dade, I was able to create a region with just Broward and Palm Beach County. Say hello to Senator Debbie Wasserman-Schultz.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,333
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #59 on: May 08, 2015, 01:06:53 pm »

Region: Tampa Bay (Brown)
Largest City: Tampa, FL
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Odet Philipe
PVI: R+1

Obama 2012: 50.1%
Romney 2012: 48.6%

Obama 2008: 51.2%
McCain 2008: 47.5%

Region Swing: 2.2% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 1.2% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Florida: 100%

Region Comment
This district was originally drawn with Citrus and Levy counties. I wanted to avoid having to put Manatee or Sarasota counties in this region. I was eventually forced to put Manatee county in this region because of population issues in the not so pretty orange region. Volusia County has 16% of the population needed for region and when Manatee County is in the orange region adding Volusia County puts it over the maximum population allowed and taking it out drops it below the minimum. Charlie Crist won this district in 2014 for Governor, so he'd probably win this region if he wanted another stab at the Senate. Congressmen Gus Bilirakis and David Jolly would be good candidates for the Republicans.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,333
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #60 on: May 08, 2015, 03:25:44 pm »

Forgot to repost the map:

Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,333
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #61 on: May 08, 2015, 03:30:59 pm »

Region: Central Highlands (Purple)
Largest City: Orlando, FL
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Zora Neale Hurston
PVI: R+2

Obama 2012: 49.7%
Romney 2012: 49.1%

Obama 2008: 50.7%
McCain 2008: 48.3%

Region Swing: 1.9% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 1.5% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Florida: 100%

Region Comment
This is the Orlando metropolitan area region. The metro area on its own does not have enough people for one region, so I added other Central Florida counties such as Lake, Osceola and Sumter counties. Bill Nelson lives in this region and during his last election he won all but two counties in this region. This would be his Senate seat.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,333
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #62 on: May 08, 2015, 03:39:12 pm »
« Edited: May 11, 2015, 08:45:30 am by Governor Gass3268 »

Region: Cultural, Space & Treasure Coasts (Orange)
Largest City: Port St. Lucie, FL
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Astronaut Guss Grissom
PVI: R+6

Obama 2012: 44.2%
Romney 2012: 54.6%

Obama 2008: 47.1%
McCain 2008: 51.8%

Region Swing: 5.7% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 2.3% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Florida: 100%

Region Comment
Unfortunately this region had to be the "extras" region as it takes in counties that did not or could not fit into the Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Tampa or Orlando regions. Patrick Murphy lives close to here and represents a portion of this region, but I think this would be a bit too difficult of terrain for him. More likely than not this region would be represented by a Republican like Tom Rooney or Bill Posey.
Logged
muon2
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15,466


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #63 on: May 08, 2015, 06:00:08 pm »

As I continue to look at CA between hangs of DRA, I conclude that there should be two 60+ HVAP districts in LAC where one connects to OC with Anaheim/Santa Ana. The best I could do with SB and Riverside was to add Pomona then stretch it all the way to Imperial then back along the border to SW SD county. That only gets to 58% HVAP, so 60+ isn't plausible there.

Other observations of CA. CA is just barely over 12 districts. SoCal minus Kern and Imperial is just right for 7 districts. Kern plus the north is almost exactly 5 districts. So keep Imperial with Arizona, but I'm not sure the Riverside chop follows your rules.

I really don't know yet what I am going to do with Southern California. I like the fact that Orange and San Diego counties have exactly enough for each to be their own region and I don't think I want to mess with that. I should have noted with my rules that no one rule is more important than the other and I should have noted that minority-majority collation regions, like the South Central Black/Hispanic and the Eastern LA County Asian/Hispanic regions, are acceptable. I feel like due to the sheer size of these regions, having minority collations would be necessary and probably allowable. My fear with making your proposed changes is that it would really mess up and dramatically alter the rest of the regions in the Southwest, especially in Arizona, Nevada and Utah. 

Rules might be equivalent, but the VRA must take priority. Coalition districts don't count for that purpose unless it's clear that the Latinos can outvote the other minorities to get their candidate of choice, which historically has not been the case. I think I have convinced myself that a third CD in SoCal for a Latino isn't practical, so you can leave SD intact and Imperial with Arizona. However, OC is in the same UCC as LAC, so it is reasonable to chop it to get a second solid Latino district.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,333
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #64 on: May 08, 2015, 06:32:52 pm »

As I continue to look at CA between hangs of DRA, I conclude that there should be two 60+ HVAP districts in LAC where one connects to OC with Anaheim/Santa Ana. The best I could do with SB and Riverside was to add Pomona then stretch it all the way to Imperial then back along the border to SW SD county. That only gets to 58% HVAP, so 60+ isn't plausible there.

Other observations of CA. CA is just barely over 12 districts. SoCal minus Kern and Imperial is just right for 7 districts. Kern plus the north is almost exactly 5 districts. So keep Imperial with Arizona, but I'm not sure the Riverside chop follows your rules.

I really don't know yet what I am going to do with Southern California. I like the fact that Orange and San Diego counties have exactly enough for each to be their own region and I don't think I want to mess with that. I should have noted with my rules that no one rule is more important than the other and I should have noted that minority-majority collation regions, like the South Central Black/Hispanic and the Eastern LA County Asian/Hispanic regions, are acceptable. I feel like due to the sheer size of these regions, having minority collations would be necessary and probably allowable. My fear with making your proposed changes is that it would really mess up and dramatically alter the rest of the regions in the Southwest, especially in Arizona, Nevada and Utah. 

Rules might be equivalent, but the VRA must take priority. Coalition districts don't count for that purpose unless it's clear that the Latinos can outvote the other minorities to get their candidate of choice, which historically has not been the case. I think I have convinced myself that a third CD in SoCal for a Latino isn't practical, so you can leave SD intact and Imperial with Arizona. However, OC is in the same UCC as LAC, so it is reasonable to chop it to get a second solid Latino district.

I'll look into it, part of the reason I'm so hesitant to make the change is how slow my DRA is, lol!
Logged
muon2
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15,466


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #65 on: May 08, 2015, 08:30:06 pm »

As I continue to look at CA between hangs of DRA, I conclude that there should be two 60+ HVAP districts in LAC where one connects to OC with Anaheim/Santa Ana. The best I could do with SB and Riverside was to add Pomona then stretch it all the way to Imperial then back along the border to SW SD county. That only gets to 58% HVAP, so 60+ isn't plausible there.

Other observations of CA. CA is just barely over 12 districts. SoCal minus Kern and Imperial is just right for 7 districts. Kern plus the north is almost exactly 5 districts. So keep Imperial with Arizona, but I'm not sure the Riverside chop follows your rules.

I really don't know yet what I am going to do with Southern California. I like the fact that Orange and San Diego counties have exactly enough for each to be their own region and I don't think I want to mess with that. I should have noted with my rules that no one rule is more important than the other and I should have noted that minority-majority collation regions, like the South Central Black/Hispanic and the Eastern LA County Asian/Hispanic regions, are acceptable. I feel like due to the sheer size of these regions, having minority collations would be necessary and probably allowable. My fear with making your proposed changes is that it would really mess up and dramatically alter the rest of the regions in the Southwest, especially in Arizona, Nevada and Utah. 

Rules might be equivalent, but the VRA must take priority. Coalition districts don't count for that purpose unless it's clear that the Latinos can outvote the other minorities to get their candidate of choice, which historically has not been the case. I think I have convinced myself that a third CD in SoCal for a Latino isn't practical, so you can leave SD intact and Imperial with Arizona. However, OC is in the same UCC as LAC, so it is reasonable to chop it to get a second solid Latino district.

I'll look into it, part of the reason I'm so hesitant to make the change is how slow my DRA is, lol!

I'm working on a DRA pic of SoCal with two solid Latino districts in LAC+OC.

Meanwhile, removing the populations of Imperial, Inyo, Mono, and Alpine leaves CA with enough population for exactly 12 districts. The seven northern counties are an additional 440 K removed from CA, plus whatever is removed from Riverside. That means all the CA districts are depopulated in your plan by 1% to 2% on average. I presume there are other overpopulated districts that could give up population. Why depopulate CA so much?
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,333
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #66 on: May 08, 2015, 09:09:26 pm »
« Edited: May 08, 2015, 09:16:24 pm by Governor Gass3268 »

As I continue to look at CA between hangs of DRA, I conclude that there should be two 60+ HVAP districts in LAC where one connects to OC with Anaheim/Santa Ana. The best I could do with SB and Riverside was to add Pomona then stretch it all the way to Imperial then back along the border to SW SD county. That only gets to 58% HVAP, so 60+ isn't plausible there.

Other observations of CA. CA is just barely over 12 districts. SoCal minus Kern and Imperial is just right for 7 districts. Kern plus the north is almost exactly 5 districts. So keep Imperial with Arizona, but I'm not sure the Riverside chop follows your rules.

I really don't know yet what I am going to do with Southern California. I like the fact that Orange and San Diego counties have exactly enough for each to be their own region and I don't think I want to mess with that. I should have noted with my rules that no one rule is more important than the other and I should have noted that minority-majority collation regions, like the South Central Black/Hispanic and the Eastern LA County Asian/Hispanic regions, are acceptable. I feel like due to the sheer size of these regions, having minority collations would be necessary and probably allowable. My fear with making your proposed changes is that it would really mess up and dramatically alter the rest of the regions in the Southwest, especially in Arizona, Nevada and Utah.  

Rules might be equivalent, but the VRA must take priority. Coalition districts don't count for that purpose unless it's clear that the Latinos can outvote the other minorities to get their candidate of choice, which historically has not been the case. I think I have convinced myself that a third CD in SoCal for a Latino isn't practical, so you can leave SD intact and Imperial with Arizona. However, OC is in the same UCC as LAC, so it is reasonable to chop it to get a second solid Latino district.

I'll look into it, part of the reason I'm so hesitant to make the change is how slow my DRA is, lol!

I'm working on a DRA pic of SoCal with two solid Latino districts in LAC+OC.

Meanwhile, removing the populations of Imperial, Inyo, Mono, and Alpine leaves CA with enough population for exactly 12 districts. The seven northern counties are an additional 440 K removed from CA, plus whatever is removed from Riverside. That means all the CA districts are depopulated in your plan by 1% to 2% on average. I presume there are other overpopulated districts that could give up population. Why depopulate CA so much?

It would be great to see what you can come up with for SoCal, its taking me hours just to draw a single district. I should note that the orange region with San Francisco and the northern Bay area includes Hawaii. I wanted to connect Hawaii with a mainland region could be majority Asian/Pacific Islander. Alaska is easy to connect to the mainland because there are some similarities with the Interior West, but its not as easy with Hawaii and it needs to go somewhere.
Logged
muon2
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15,466


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #67 on: May 08, 2015, 10:12:49 pm »

It would be great to see what you can come up with for SoCal, its taking me hours just to draw a single district. I should note that the orange region with San Francisco and the northern Bay area includes Hawaii. I wanted to connect Hawaii with a mainland region could be majority Asian/Pacific Islander. Alaska is easy to connect to the mainland because there are some similarities with the Interior West, but its not as easy with Hawaii and it needs to go somewhere.

Hawaii explains a lot. Did you consider attaching it to LAC? HI would fit very nicely with the non-Latino areas along the west coast of LAC including Hollywood, Santa Monica, Torrance, and Palos Verde, an area that includes LAX. BTW, how much are you moving from Riverside to Arizona?
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,333
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #68 on: May 08, 2015, 10:17:41 pm »

It would be great to see what you can come up with for SoCal, its taking me hours just to draw a single district. I should note that the orange region with San Francisco and the northern Bay area includes Hawaii. I wanted to connect Hawaii with a mainland region could be majority Asian/Pacific Islander. Alaska is easy to connect to the mainland because there are some similarities with the Interior West, but its not as easy with Hawaii and it needs to go somewhere.

Hawaii explains a lot. Did you consider attaching it to LAC? HI would fit very nicely with the non-Latino areas along the west coast of LAC including Hollywood, Santa Monica, Torrance, and Palos Verde, an area that includes LAX. BTW, how much are you moving from Riverside to Arizona?

456,795

And I did consider attaching it to LAC, other than wishing that the Asian areas around Pasadena were closer to the ocean.
Logged
muon2
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15,466


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #69 on: May 09, 2015, 07:16:22 am »

I got DRA up long enough to put together a map for LA county. The two Latino CDs are both 62% HVAP and should be enough to comply with the VRA. The teal part from LAC can either connect to Ventura, SB, and SLO as here, or to Hawaii.



BTW, if the lime area includes all of Riverside and Imperial the HVAP rises over 48% and it becomes a Latino crossover district. I know that shorts your southern Arizona, but have you considered using the original form of AZ that included Clark NV and NM? That could be divided into three districts after the eastern part of NM was removed. The Reno area could then join with northern CA. I can draw it, if you are interested.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,333
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #70 on: May 09, 2015, 09:02:15 am »

I got DRA up long enough to put together a map for LA county. The two Latino CDs are both 62% HVAP and should be enough to comply with the VRA. The teal part from LAC can either connect to Ventura, SB, and SLO as here, or to Hawaii.



BTW, if the lime area includes all of Riverside and Imperial the HVAP rises over 48% and it becomes a Latino crossover district. I know that shorts your southern Arizona, but have you considered using the original form of AZ that included Clark NV and NM? That could be divided into three districts after the eastern part of NM was removed. The Reno area could then join with northern CA. I can draw it, if you are interested.

Sure, let me see it.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,333
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #71 on: May 11, 2015, 08:44:55 am »

Region: Southwest Appalachia (Brown)
Largest City: Birmingham, AL
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Helen Keller
PVI: R+16

Obama 2012: 35.3%
Romney 2012: 63.5%

Obama 2008: 35.7%
McCain 2008: 63.2%

Region Swing: 0.8% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 2.6% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Alabama: 100%

Region Comment
The objective for this region was for it to be essentially all of Alabama north of the Birmingham metropolitan area. This includes the Huntsville and Tuscaloosa areas, but not the Auburn or Montgomery metros. Richard Shelby is from this region and would represent this region in the Senate.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,333
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #72 on: May 11, 2015, 08:59:11 am »
« Edited: May 11, 2015, 09:06:35 am by Governor Gass3268 »

Region: Black Belt & Pines (Pink)
Largest City: Montgomery, AL
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Rosa Parks
PVI: R+11

Obama 2012: 41.3%
Romney 2012: 57.9%

Obama 2008: 40.9%
McCain 2008: 58.3%

Region Swing: 0.9% Towards Democrats
Region Trend: 4.3% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Alabama: 40%
Mississippi: 60%

Region Comment
The goal of this region was to combine what was left of Alabama and Mississippi after the creation of the Gulf Coast, Mississippi Delta, and Northern Alabama regions. Luckily there was exactly enough people here for a region. Thad Cochran lives in Hinds County, Mississippi which is in the Mississippi Delta region, but I could see him moving to this one and winning this region with no issue. Rodger Wicker is also from this region and he would also easily win here.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,333
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #73 on: May 11, 2015, 09:18:41 am »

Region: Central Gulf Coast (Red)
Largest City: Mobile, AL
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Jean Lafitte
PVI: R+21

Obama 2012: 30.5%
Romney 2012: 67.9%

Obama 2008: 30.8%
McCain 2008: 67.8%

Region Swing: 0.4% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 3.0% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Alabama: 18%
Florida: 30%
Louisiana: 37%
Mississippi: 14%

Region Comment
My thoughts when creating this region was to essentially copy the boundary lines for old West Florida. This included what was left of the Florida panhandle west of the Apalachicola River, the gulf counties in both Alabama and Mississippi, and most of the New Orleans suburbs. Jeff Sessions and David Vitter both live in this region. Bill Cassidy lives in the Mississippi Delta region, but represented a good portion of the Louisiana portion of this region when he was in the House.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,333
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #74 on: May 11, 2015, 09:29:16 am »

Region: Mississippi Delta (Orange)
Largest City: Memphis, TN
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: B.B. King
PVI: D+10

Obama 2012: 61.9%
Romney 2012: 36.6%

Obama 2008: 61.0%
McCain 2008: 38.1%

Region Swing: 2.4% Towards Democrats
Region Trend: 5.8% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Arkansas: 6%
Louisiana: 41%
Mississippi: 22%
Tennessee: 31%

Region Comment
The objective of this region was to create an African American opportunity region. While I don't think that African Americans make up a majority of this region (I'm going to have to double check), they do make up a plurality and they would clearly have the majority in a Democratic primary. Cedric Richmond from New Orleans, LA and Bennie Thompson from Jackson, MS would both be strong candidates for this region.
Logged
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 5 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC