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  100 Senate Regions
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Author Topic: 100 Senate Regions  (Read 16587 times)
Gass3268
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« Reply #75 on: May 11, 2015, 02:10:16 pm »
« edited: May 11, 2015, 03:24:11 pm by Governor Gass3268 »

Region: Acadiana & Timberlands (Blue)
Largest City: Shreveport, LA
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Senator Huey Long
PVI: R+13

Obama 2012: 38.5%
Romney 2012: 60.2%

Obama 2008: 38.9%
McCain 2008: 59.3%

Region Swing: 1.2% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 2.2% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Arkansas: 66%
Louisiana: 34%

Region Comment
The goal of this region was to add what was left of Louisiana with Southern Arkansas. Unfortunately where were parts of Southern Arkansas that I had to leave out due to population. This included the Texarkana metropolitan counties in Arkansas and Garland County (Hot Springs), AR. Charles Boustany and John Fleming would both be strong choices for Louisiana Republicans, while there are not any strong Arkansas Republicans for this seat. Mike Ross would probably be the best chance for a Democrat here, but after 2014 he would have little to no chance of winning.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #76 on: May 11, 2015, 03:23:55 pm »

Region: Ozarks (Brown)
Largest City: Springfield, MO
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President Bill Clinton
PVI: R+20

Obama 2012: 29.9%
Romney 2012: 66.4%

Obama 2008: 34.5%
McCain 2008: 63.4%

Region Swing: 7.5% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 4.1% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Arkansas: 49%
Missouri: 51%

Region Comment
This takes what is left of Southern Missouri after the creation of St. Louis and Kansas City regions, in addition to Northern Arkansas. Senators Roy Blunt, John Boozman, and Tom Cotton are all from this region. They would all be strong candidates to represent this region.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #77 on: May 11, 2015, 03:32:37 pm »
« Edited: May 11, 2015, 08:13:13 pm by Governor Gass3268 »

Done with the South. For the purposes of how I've gone about drawing these districts, Oklahoma and Texas are in the West. The Dakotas, Eastern Kansas and Nebraska are in the Midwest. I figure this would be a good time to post the map again before jumping into Ohio and the Midwest. I also have made the changes to Texas from my conversations with Muon.



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Gass3268
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« Reply #78 on: May 12, 2015, 10:48:33 am »

Region: Western Reserve (Blue)
Largest City: Cleveland, OH
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President James A. Garfield
PVI: D+7

Obama 2012: 58.8%
Romney 2012: 39.6%

Obama 2008: 59.5%
McCain 2008: 38.8%

Region Swing: 1.5% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 1.9% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Ohio: 100%

Region Comment
This region was drawn to include the Cleveland and Akron metropolitan areas. It needed one other county to get to the minimum population and originally I wanted to have Ashtabula County, OH in this region instead of Stark County (Canton), OH. But that did not provide enough population and adding both took it over the maximum population, so I just included Stark County, OH. Senator Sherrod Brown would represent this region in the Senate. Dave Joyce would be the Republicans best candidate to run here too.

Thanks to rpryor03 for giving me suggestions for candidates for the Ohio regions. Anyone else who wants to give me a suggestion should just shoot me a PM
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Gass3268
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« Reply #79 on: May 12, 2015, 11:00:23 am »

Region: Miami River Valley (Yellow)
Largest City: Cincinnati, OH
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President Ulysses S. Grant
PVI: R+9

Obama 2012: 42.4%
Romney 2012: 55.9%

Obama 2008: 43.9%
McCain 2008: 54.9%

Region Swing: 2.5% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 0.9% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Indiana: 5%
Kentucky: 14%
Ohio: 81%

Region Comment
This region is designed to be the Cincinnati metropolitan area. This area did not have enough people so I added a few counties in Indiana and Kentucky to make the region look better and I added a majority of the Dayton metropolitan area. Senator Rob Portman is from this region and would represent this region in the Senate. PG Sittenfield has senatorial ambitions and is from this region, but I cannot imagine him beating Portman here.
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« Reply #80 on: May 12, 2015, 11:03:49 am »

If you're looking for a district that connects Asian areas of Northern California with Hawaii, you'd be much better served going south from San Francisco into Santa Clara County. I'm not sure if that's feasible, but there aren't an inordinate number of Asians in the North Bay.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #81 on: May 12, 2015, 11:18:21 am »

Region: Allegheny Plateau & Till Plains (Purple)
Largest City: Columbus, OH
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President Warren G. Harding
PVI: R+2

Obama 2012: 50.2%
Romney 2012: 47.9%

Obama 2008: 49.8%
McCain 2008: 48.3%

Region Swing: 0.8% Towards Democrats
Region Trend: 4.2% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Ohio: 100%

Region Comment
The final two Ohio regions were designed with the hopes that I could keep both entirely in the state and I was able to do this. I also wanted to keep the Columbus metropolitan area together for this particular region and combine it with most of the Appalachian region in Ohio. Interesting fact is Obama won this region in 2012 with only Athens and Franklin County. Personally I feel like former Democratic Governor Ted Strickland would be the favorite here as he was also popular in the Appalachian region which is traditionally Democratic, the southern part of the region swung to Obama in 2012, and Columbus is growing like crazy while swinging to the Democrats. Congressman Steve Stivers would be the strongest candidates for the Republicans for this region.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #82 on: May 12, 2015, 11:20:38 am »

If you're looking for a district that connects Asian areas of Northern California with Hawaii, you'd be much better served going south from San Francisco into Santa Clara County. I'm not sure if that's feasible, but there aren't an inordinate number of Asians in the North Bay.

I'll look into that when I get DRA access tonight when I get home. Figuring out what to do for Hawaii for this project is always really annoying, especially compared to Alaska which is relatively easy.
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« Reply #83 on: May 12, 2015, 12:29:52 pm »

If you're looking for a district that connects Asian areas of Northern California with Hawaii, you'd be much better served going south from San Francisco into Santa Clara County. I'm not sure if that's feasible, but there aren't an inordinate number of Asians in the North Bay.

Why is that?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #84 on: May 12, 2015, 12:53:42 pm »
« Edited: May 12, 2015, 01:24:29 pm by Governor Gass3268 »

Region: Lake Eire Shoreline (Orange)
Largest City: Toledo, OH
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President Rutherford B. Hayes
PVI: R+4

Obama 2012: 47.4%
Romney 2012: 50.5%

Obama 2008: 49.2%
McCain 2008: 48.6%

Region Swing: 3.6% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 0.2% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Ohio: 100%

Region Comment
This region is everything that was left in Ohio, north and to the west of the Columbus metropolitan area. This would be a relatively competitive region, with the Republicans holding the advantage, so my guess would be that Congressman Jim Jordan would be the Senator from this region. Congressman Tim Ryan would be the best candidate for the Democrats and he'd have a reasonable chance of winning.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #85 on: May 12, 2015, 01:08:38 pm »
« Edited: May 12, 2015, 01:24:19 pm by Governor Gass3268 »

Region: Ohio River Lowlands (Beige)
Largest City: Indianapolis, IN
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President Benjamin Harrison
PVI: R+6

Obama 2012: 43.3%
Romney 2012: 54.4%

Obama 2008: 49.0%
McCain 2008: 48.2%

Region Swing: 11.9% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 8.5% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Indiana: 99%
Kentucky: 1%

Region Comment
The objective for this region was to be the Indianapolis metropolitan area and Indiana south of the Capital Region. I also added Henderson County, IN which is part of the Evansville UCC. Notice the heavy swing and trend for this region, so the PVI in reality is probably closer to around R+9. State Senator James Merritt is running for the currently open Senate seat in Indiana and he lives in this district. Other strong republicans would include Indianapolis Mayor Greg Ballard and Congressman Todd Young. Former Senator Evan Bayh would of course be the best choice for the Democrats in this region.
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« Reply #86 on: May 12, 2015, 01:23:24 pm »

Region: Wabash River Valley (Pink)
Largest City: Fort Wayne, IN
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President William Henry Harrison
PVI: R+5

Obama 2012: 43.0%
Romney 2012: 55.2%

Obama 2008: 50.1%
McCain 2008: 47.4%

Region Swing: 14.9% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 11.5% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Indiana: 69%
Michigan: 31%

Region Comment
The goal for this region was to add what was left of Indiana (minus the counties in the Northwest that are part of the Chicago UCC) and the first tow rows of counties in Southwest Michigan. I wanted the part of Michigan in this region to also avoid the Detroit, Grand Rapids, and Lansing metropolitan areas as well. Like the previous Indiana region, don't let the PVI fool you as it is probably closer to around R+7. Senator Joe Donnelly is from this region, but Richard Mourdock is from the Southern Indiana region so I don't think Donnelly would have been able to win this region without running against Mourdock. Senator Dan Coats is also from this region, but he is retiring. Congressmen Todd Rokita and Todd Young, both of Indiana, would be strong candidates for Republicans. Congressmen Fred Upton and Tim Walberg, both from Michigan, would also be good Republican choices.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #87 on: May 12, 2015, 01:39:07 pm »

Region: Detroit & St. Clair River Valleys (Green)
Largest City: Detroit, MI
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Secretary of State Lewis Cass
PVI: D+12

Obama 2012: 63.3%
Romney 2012: 35.5%

Obama 2008: 65.1%
McCain 2008: 33.2%

Region Swing: 4.2% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 0.8% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Michigan: 100%

Region Comment
The Detroit metropolitan area is pretty tricking because Macomb, Oakland, and Wayne counties are all very large and too big. As such I had to split the area into east and west, with the western counties going with the Ann Arbor, Flint and Lansing metropolitan areas. Senator Gary Peters represented a good portion of this region when he served in the house, but he lives in Oakland County. To prevent a primary with Senator Debbie Stabenow, who is from Lansing and has seniority, he could move to Macomb County and easily win this Senate seat.
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« Reply #88 on: May 12, 2015, 01:42:13 pm »

If you're looking for a district that connects Asian areas of Northern California with Hawaii, you'd be much better served going south from San Francisco into Santa Clara County. I'm not sure if that's feasible, but there aren't an inordinate number of Asians in the North Bay.

Why is that?

The computer industry is based in the Santa Clara Valley.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #89 on: May 12, 2015, 02:28:24 pm »

Region: Lake Huron Peninsula (Cyan)
Largest City: Lansing, MI
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Governor George Romney
PVI: D+5

Obama 2012: 55.3%
Romney 2012: 43.6%

Obama 2008: 58.2%
McCain 2008: 40.1%

Region Swing: 6.5% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 3.1% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Michigan: 100%

Region Comment
The goal for this district was to add the western part of the Detroit metropolitan area to the Ann Arbor, Flint, and Lansing metropolitan areas. I also originally planned to ad the Tri-Cities area as well, but this would have put the region over the population maximum. This would be Senator Debbie Stabenow's region.
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« Reply #90 on: May 12, 2015, 02:35:42 pm »

Region: Eastern Lake Michigan Shoreline (Yellow)
Largest City: Grand Rapids
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President Gerald Ford
PVI: R+5

Obama 2012: 44.6%
Romney 2012: 53.6%

Obama 2008: 49.6%
McCain 2008: 50.6%

Region Swing: 8.0% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 4.6% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Michigan: 88%
Wisconsin: 12%

Region Comment
For this regions I took what was left of Michigan and then added the Northwoods area of Wisconsin, including Marathon County. This is probably a point or two more Republican than the PVI shows as Obama really over performed here in 2008. Terri Lynn Land, who ran in 2014 for the Michigan Senate Seat, would probably win in this region if she wanted it. Democrats have almost no bench in this region.
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« Reply #91 on: May 12, 2015, 02:49:21 pm »

Region: Western Lake Michigan Shoreline (Brown)
Largest City: Milwaukee, WI
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Chief Justice William Rehnquist
PVI: R+1

Obama 2012: 49.7%
Romney 2012: 49.2%

Obama 2008: 52.8%
McCain 2008: 45.8%

Region Swing: 6.5% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 3.1% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Wisconsin: 100%

Region Comment
This region is the heavily German parts of Wisconsin, including the Milwaukee, Green Bay and Appleton metropolitan areas. However, Kenosha County is with the 3 Chicago metropolitan regions. This would be a competitive region during Presidential years, but would lean Republican during midterm years. Senator Ron Johnson would start off with an advantage here for the Republicans, while Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson would probably be the best bet for Democrats. This would have been Herb Kohl's seat before he retired and he would have been strong here.
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« Reply #92 on: May 13, 2015, 08:46:16 am »

Region: Twin Cities (Green)
Largest City: Minneapolis, MN
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Vice President Hubert Humphrey
PVI: D+5

Obama 2012: 56.1%
Romney 2012: 41.6%

Obama 2008: 57.2%
McCain 2008: 40.9%

Region Swing: 1.7% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 1.7% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Minnesota: 100%

Region Comment
All of the counties in this region are apart of the Minneapolis-St. Paul UCC. Sherburne County, MN is the only UCC county not in this region and I removed it from this region because I did not want to split up the city of St. Cloud, MN. Senators Amy Klobuchar and Al Franken are from this region and either one would be the Senator form this region. Congressmen Joe Kline and Erik Paulsen would both be good Republican candidates for this region, but they would definitely start of as underdogs.
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« Reply #93 on: May 13, 2015, 08:56:34 am »

Region: Northern Driftless Area & Iron Range (Orange)
Largest City: Madison, WI
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Senator Robert M. La Follette
PVI: D+6

Obama 2012: 56.7%
Romney 2012: 41.4%

Obama 2008: 59.1%
McCain 2008: 38.9%

Region Swing: 5.0% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 1.6% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Minnesota: 36%
Wisconsin: 64%

Region Comment
My objective for this region was to combine what was left in Wisconsin, the western part of the state, and combine it with the remaining parts of Eastern Minnesota. Senator Tammy Bladwin would be very strong in this region, but in all likelihood Russ Feingold would have never lost and would still be the Senator here. Former Governor Tommy Thompson is from this region and probably the best choice for Republicans. Yet he would in all likelihood do worse than he did in 2012 against either Baldwin or Feingold in this region.
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« Reply #94 on: May 13, 2015, 09:05:26 am »
« Edited: May 15, 2015, 01:44:55 pm by Governor Gass3268 »

Region: Northern Great Plaines (Pink)
Largest City: Sioux Falls, SD
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Chief Sitting Bull
PVI: R+9

Obama 2012: 40.7%
Romney 2012: 56.9%

Obama 2008: 44.8%
McCain 2008: 53.0%

Region Swing: 7.9% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 4.5% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Iowa: 11%
Minnesota: 41%
North Dakota: 23%
South Dakota: 31%

Region Comment
My goal for this region was to add what was left in Western Minnesota with the Dakotas. Unfortunately this left the region about 5% from the minimum population so I added the Northwestern corner of Iowa. Four current United States Senators live here, but with his seniority I would imagine that John Thune would be the favorite for this region. Senator Heidi Heitkamp would be the strongest candidate for the Democrats in what would be a very difficult region for them.
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« Reply #95 on: May 13, 2015, 09:29:53 am »

Region: The Windy City (Cyan)
Largest City: Chicago, IL
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President Barack Obama
PVI: D+33

Obama 2012: 83.2%
Romney 2012: 14.5%

Obama 2008: 85.8%
McCain 2008: 13.4%

Region Swing: 3.7% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 0.3% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Illinois: 100%

Region Comment
The goal for this region was to draw a minority-majority region exclusively in Cook County, IL. This region would in all likelihood elect an American-American to the Senate. Congresswoman Robin Kelly, who is considering a run against Senator Kirk in 2016, would be an excellent candidate for this region. There is really no Republican bench for this region.
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« Reply #96 on: May 13, 2015, 09:50:16 am »

Region: Northshore (Beige)
Largest City: Chicago, IL
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Jane Adams
PVI: D+10

Obama 2012: 59.9%
Romney 2012: 63.4%

Obama 2008: 63.4%
McCain 2008: 35.2%

Region Swing: 7.3% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 3.9% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Illinois: 94%
Wisconsin: 6%

Region Comment
I drew this region to include the remainder of the northern part of Cook County and the northern suburban counties of Kenosha, Lake and McHenry. Senator Mark Kirk is from this region, but his base of Lake County and McHenry only makes up 33% of this region and there is a lot of territory here that would be hostile to him. It would probably be in his best interest to move into the purple southern and western Chicago suburban region, as he would have much better chances in this region. Congresswoman Tammy Duckworth, who is running against Senator Kirk in 2016, lives in this region and would be a very strong candidate.
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« Reply #97 on: May 13, 2015, 10:07:11 am »

Region: Chicagoland (Red)
Largest City: Aurora, IL
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Speaker Of The House Dennis Hastert
PVI: D+3

Obama 2012: 52.7%
Romney 2012: 45.9%

Obama 2008: 56.4%
McCain 2008: 42.3%

Region Swing: 7.4% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 4.0% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Illinois: 79%
Indiana: 21%

Region Comment
The goal for this region was to use as much of the remaining Chicago UCC as possible in addition to what was left of Southwestern Cook County. I was able to add the remainder of the UCC except for DeKalb, Grundy, and Kendall Counties. Republican Senator Mark Kirk would be a very strong candidate for this region if he is willing to move. Otherwise Congressman Peter Roskam would be a very strong candidate for the Republicans. Congressman Bill Foster would be the best choice for the Democrats as he currently represents many of the large cities in this region including Aurora, Joliet, and Naperville. Also don't let the PVI fool you, this would region would be a Lean R in most years, even though the Indiana counties would be a positive boost for the for the Democrats.
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« Reply #98 on: May 15, 2015, 02:04:36 pm »
« Edited: May 15, 2015, 02:25:25 pm by Governor Gass3268 »

Region: Southern Driftless Area & Western Corn Belt (Blue)
Largest City: Des Moines, IA
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President Herbert Hoover
PVI: D+3

Obama 2012: 53.7%
Romney 2012: 44.5%

Obama 2008: 55.5%
McCain 2008: 42.8%

Region Swing: 3.5% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 0.1% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Illinois: 14%
Iowa: 86%

Region Comment
After taking out the Northwestern part of Iowa, it needed to gain at least 6% more in population to get over the minimum. I got this by adding essentially a cleaner version of the 17th Illinois Congressional district. Chuck Grassley would probably represent this region and would be the best candidate for the Republicans. Congressman David Loebsack, Congresswoman Cheri Bustos, USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack, former First Lady of Iowa Christie Vilsack, and former Governor Chet Culver would all be strong candidates for the Democrats.
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« Reply #99 on: May 15, 2015, 02:12:34 pm »

Region: Gateway To The West (Yellow)
Largest City: St. Louis, MO
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Mark Twain
PVI: D+2

Obama 2012: 51.7%
Romney 2012: 47.2%

Obama 2008: 56.5%
McCain 2008: 42.2%

Region Swing: 9.7% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 6.3% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Illinois: 28%
Missouri: 72%

Region Comment
This region was designed to include all of the St. Louis Metropolitan area, plus a few counties that surround it in both Illinois and Missouri that get it to the desired population. This seat leans Democratic, but it swung heavily to the Republicans in 2012. Democrats best bet would be former Congressman Russ Carnahan and Congresswoman Ann Wagner would be the best candidate for the Republicans.
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