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February 22, 2020, 10:05:36 pm
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  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, Senator ON Progressive)
  New Jersey in 1996
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ElectionsGuy
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« on: May 04, 2015, 12:03:32 am »

Up until 1996, New Jersey was a more Republican state than Pennsylvania. In fact, it was a red state. But New Jersey went from 43-41 Clinton to 54-36 Clinton, and it was at that point where it became more Democratic than Pennsylvania, which was a 9 point margin both times. Why did this happen?
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mathstatman
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« Reply #1 on: May 04, 2015, 10:52:38 am »
« Edited: May 04, 2015, 10:54:13 am by mathstatman »

Pennsylvania's voters are older and more rural (a large swath of rural America exists between Steeltown and Philly). In 1980 when young voters split their votes between Carter and Reagan, with older voters strongly backing Reagan, PA and NJ voted the same. In 1984, 88 and 92, when young voters were just as GOP as older voters, PA was more Democratic. By 1996 when an age gap had opened up again (voters under 30 voted 53-35 for Clinton over Dole vs. 48-42 for voters over 30) and rural whites were increasingly rejecting the Democrats, PA was again more Republican where it has remained.
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