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Author Topic: AZ-PPP: McCain in big trouble in primary.  (Read 5423 times)
Senator Cris
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« on: May 05, 2015, 11:15:25 am »

GOP voters:

McCain 48% Jones 27%
McCain 42% Salmon 40%
McCain 40% Schweikert 39%
McCain 44% Ward 31%
McCain 37% Someone more conservative 51%

McCain Approval: 41/50

General election:

McCain 40% Carmona 34%
Carmona 42% Jones 36%
Salmon 43% Carmona 35%
Schweikert 39% Carmona 39%
Carmona 39% Ward 36%

McCain 40% DuVal 36%

McCain 42% Kirkpatrick 36%

McCain 42% Sinema 36%

McCain approval: 36/51

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_AZ_50515.pdf
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1 on: May 05, 2015, 11:16:59 am »

Good news for McCain is that his toughest foes aren't running.
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« Reply #2 on: May 05, 2015, 11:36:59 am »

Good news for McCain is that his toughest foes aren't running.

Well, here seems like a case where Democrats should hope to face the incumbent.
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« Reply #3 on: May 05, 2015, 12:02:26 pm »

36/51 approval? Damn, McCain's in trouble.
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PAK Man
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« Reply #4 on: May 05, 2015, 01:18:10 pm »

If McCain survives the primary, I don't see him losing the general. However, I'd definitely be concerned if polling showed Democrats within 5 points of me.
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SunriseAroundTheWorld
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« Reply #5 on: May 05, 2015, 01:39:01 pm »

I'm still standing by John McCain. All of his potential primary challengers are useless.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #6 on: May 05, 2015, 01:44:26 pm »

If McCain survives the primary, I don't see him losing the general. However, I'd definitely be concerned if polling showed Democrats within 5 points of me.

This is good news. Aside from WI and IL; AZ is prime for a pickup, as a wave may begins to build.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #7 on: May 05, 2015, 01:51:16 pm »

I'm still standing by John McCain. All of his potential primary challengers are useless.

Maybe. But there is no one more useless in Washington than the whiny perpetually bitter John McCain. God I hope he loses, primary or otherwise. I'd be okay with Senator Richard Carmona or Senator Fred Duval (surprising he is the closest, though he did seem to run an able if silent campaign for Governor) if it meant no more McCain.

and wow, Chrsitine Jones has terrible numbers now.
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« Reply #8 on: May 05, 2015, 01:52:35 pm »

If McCain survives the primary, I don't see him losing the general. However, I'd definitely be concerned if polling showed Democrats within 5 points of me.

This is good news. Aside from WI and IL; AZ is prime for a pickup, as a wave may begins to build.

Okay, Quincy.
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« Reply #9 on: May 05, 2015, 01:53:08 pm »

I'm still standing by John McCain. All of his potential primary challengers are useless.

Maybe. But there is no one more useless in Washington than the whiny perpetually bitter John McCain. God I hope he loses, primary or otherwise. I'd be okay with Senator Richard Carmona or Senator Fred Duval (surprising he is the closest, though he did seem to run an able if silent campaign for Governor) if it meant no more McCain.

Carmona/Duval are not going to defeat McCain. Sorry, but not happening. Sinema or Kirkpatrick might though....
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Maxwell
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« Reply #10 on: May 05, 2015, 01:57:00 pm »

I'm still standing by John McCain. All of his potential primary challengers are useless.

Maybe. But there is no one more useless in Washington than the whiny perpetually bitter John McCain. God I hope he loses, primary or otherwise. I'd be okay with Senator Richard Carmona or Senator Fred Duval (surprising he is the closest, though he did seem to run an able if silent campaign for Governor) if it meant no more McCain.

Carmona/Duval are not going to defeat McCain. Sorry, but not happening. Sinema or Kirkpatrick might though....

Carmona and Duval were both closer though...
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #11 on: May 05, 2015, 02:02:13 pm »

I'm still standing by John McCain. All of his potential primary challengers are useless.

Maybe. But there is no one more useless in Washington than the whiny perpetually bitter John McCain. God I hope he loses, primary or otherwise. I'd be okay with Senator Richard Carmona or Senator Fred Duval (surprising he is the closest, though he did seem to run an able if silent campaign for Governor) if it meant no more McCain.

Carmona/Duval are not going to defeat McCain. Sorry, but not happening. Sinema or Kirkpatrick might though....

Carmona and Duval were both closer though...

Duval totally bungled last year's governor's race, and seeing as Carmona couldn't win in an open seat in a democratic wave, it's difficult to see him beating McCain. I could see it happen with him before Duval though.

Sinema won by double digits in her basically even district last year, and Kirkpatrick won fairly comfortably when literally everyone predicted her defeat. Seems like pretty good electability records to me.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #12 on: May 05, 2015, 02:06:35 pm »

I'm still standing by John McCain. All of his potential primary challengers are useless.

Maybe. But there is no one more useless in Washington than the whiny perpetually bitter John McCain. God I hope he loses, primary or otherwise. I'd be okay with Senator Richard Carmona or Senator Fred Duval (surprising he is the closest, though he did seem to run an able if silent campaign for Governor) if it meant no more McCain.

Carmona/Duval are not going to defeat McCain. Sorry, but not happening. Sinema or Kirkpatrick might though....

Carmona and Duval were both closer though...

Duval totally bungled last year's governor's race, and seeing as Carmona couldn't win in an open seat in a democratic wave, it's difficult to see him beating McCain. I could see it happen with him before Duval though.

Sinema won by double digits in her basically even district last year, and Kirkpatrick won fairly comfortably when literally everyone predicted her defeat. Seems like pretty good electability records to me.

Really? He seemed to do fine for 2014. Ducey was a far better candidate than dummy Jan Brewer and yet the margin was about the same, and against Brewer democrats won an experienced politico who had won statewide races before. I don't see how he messed it up unless you expected him to actually win that year. And Carmona faced a far stronger opponent in Jeff Flake (2012 being a Democratic Wave is a bit of a stretch, and Flake a pretty moderate Republican by today's standards). Unlike Kirkpatrick and Sinema, they actually have statewide experience, and could learn lessons from that loss (See: Charlie Baker improving his performance in 2010 and winning in 2014). I'm not saying that Kirkpatrick and Sinema couldn't win - they absolutely could. But if they don't run (which I think is more likely than not), Duval or Carmona would be strong contenders as well.
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« Reply #13 on: May 05, 2015, 02:15:23 pm »

We'll see the Presidential poll later this week I would guess, but if it shows a close race, then this might be the year for Democrats to invest heavily in Arizona. If Clinton could narrow her loss there, the Democratic candidate for Senate would only have to run a few points ahead of her to win.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #14 on: May 05, 2015, 02:18:54 pm »

I'm still standing by John McCain. All of his potential primary challengers are useless.

Maybe. But there is no one more useless in Washington than the whiny perpetually bitter John McCain. God I hope he loses, primary or otherwise. I'd be okay with Senator Richard Carmona or Senator Fred Duval (surprising he is the closest, though he did seem to run an able if silent campaign for Governor) if it meant no more McCain.

Carmona/Duval are not going to defeat McCain. Sorry, but not happening. Sinema or Kirkpatrick might though....

Carmona and Duval were both closer though...

Duval totally bungled last year's governor's race, and seeing as Carmona couldn't win in an open seat in a democratic wave, it's difficult to see him beating McCain. I could see it happen with him before Duval though.

Sinema won by double digits in her basically even district last year, and Kirkpatrick won fairly comfortably when literally everyone predicted her defeat. Seems like pretty good electability records to me.

Really? He seemed to do fine for 2014. Ducey was a far better candidate than dummy Jan Brewer and yet the margin was about the same, and against Brewer democrats won an experienced politico who had won statewide races before. I don't see how he messed it up unless you expected him to actually win that year. And Carmona faced a far stronger opponent in Jeff Flake (2012 being a Democratic Wave is a bit of a stretch, and Flake a pretty moderate Republican by today's standards). Unlike Kirkpatrick and Sinema, they actually have statewide experience, and could learn lessons from that loss (See: Charlie Baker improving his performance in 2010 and winning in 2014). I'm not saying that Kirkpatrick and Sinema couldn't win - they absolutely could. But if they don't run (which I think is more likely than not), Duval or Carmona would be strong contenders as well.

Ducey is not a moderate, Duval should have been able to get within single digits, and he got just 42% of the vote. The only reason the margin was 12% is because the libertarian guy took 4%, probably taking more votes away from Ducey than from Duval as libertarians typically do.
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« Reply #15 on: May 05, 2015, 02:36:20 pm »

And how exactly is this news?  The GOP has deserted McCain, and Democrats don't like him much more.
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« Reply #16 on: May 05, 2015, 02:49:42 pm »

He is in almost as bad a position as Senator Richard  Lugar was in in 2012.
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« Reply #17 on: May 05, 2015, 03:01:22 pm »

He is not out of the low 40s against any prospective challenger in the general election. At this point he is in deep trouble. He really can't do much to shore up support.   
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olowakandi
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« Reply #18 on: May 05, 2015, 03:07:57 pm »

Yeah; the GOP does have a problem with Latinos; in FL, AZ and NV. That's why Hilary is a good candidate; third constituency, in Latinos.
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« Reply #19 on: May 05, 2015, 03:11:14 pm »

Most undecideds are stubborn conservatives so I fully expect them to break towards McCain.
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« Reply #20 on: May 05, 2015, 03:12:36 pm »

McCain is lucky as heck that he won't be challenged Salmon or Schweikert, but since he will be challenged by Ward, while he is favored to beat her he will have to spend some money in the primary to beat her, and might even need to move to the right quite a bit.

As for the general, Kirkpatrick and Sinema would be able to make up that ground. They're solid winners and fundraisers, just their problem is not a lot of Arizonans who they are. It would take a really good year to defeat McCain though given that Arizona always disappoints whenever it seems like they're ready to flip towards the Democrats (and undecided's tend to break Republican).


I'm still standing by John McCain. All of his potential primary challengers are useless.

Maybe. But there is no one more useless in Washington than the whiny perpetually bitter John McCain. God I hope he loses, primary or otherwise. I'd be okay with Senator Richard Carmona or Senator Fred Duval (surprising he is the closest, though he did seem to run an able if silent campaign for Governor) if it meant no more McCain.

Carmona/Duval are not going to defeat McCain. Sorry, but not happening. Sinema or Kirkpatrick might though....

Carmona and Duval were both closer though...

Duval totally bungled last year's governor's race, and seeing as Carmona couldn't win in an open seat in a democratic wave, it's difficult to see him beating McCain. I could see it happen with him before Duval though.

Sinema won by double digits in her basically even district last year, and Kirkpatrick won fairly comfortably when literally everyone predicted her defeat. Seems like pretty good electability records to me.

Really? He seemed to do fine for 2014. Ducey was a far better candidate than dummy Jan Brewer and yet the margin was about the same, and against Brewer democrats won an experienced politico who had won statewide races before. I don't see how he messed it up unless you expected him to actually win that year. And Carmona faced a far stronger opponent in Jeff Flake (2012 being a Democratic Wave is a bit of a stretch, and Flake a pretty moderate Republican by today's standards). Unlike Kirkpatrick and Sinema, they actually have statewide experience, and could learn lessons from that loss (See: Charlie Baker improving his performance in 2010 and winning in 2014). I'm not saying that Kirkpatrick and Sinema couldn't win - they absolutely could. But if they don't run (which I think is more likely than not), Duval or Carmona would be strong contenders as well.
McCain should actually be hoping DuVal is his challenger. While he does have statewide experience, it's definitely the wrong kind of experience. He didn't lose by that bad of a margin, but the media did find out during the campaign last year that he drove while his license was suspended. DuVal made other rookie mistakes during that campaign to if I recall correctly.
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« Reply #21 on: May 05, 2015, 03:20:26 pm »

Good news for McCain is that his toughest foes aren't running.

Yeah, he probably survives against a joke like Ward.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #22 on: May 05, 2015, 03:31:27 pm »

McCain is lucky as heck that he won't be challenged Salmon or Schweikert, but since he will be challenged by Ward, while he is favored to beat her he will have to spend some money in the primary to beat her, and might even need to move to the right quite a bit.

As for the general, Kirkpatrick and Sinema would be able to make up that ground. They're solid winners and fundraisers, just their problem is not a lot of Arizonans who they are. It would take a really good year to defeat McCain though given that Arizona always disappoints whenever it seems like they're ready to flip towards the Democrats (and undecided's tend to break Republican).


I'm still standing by John McCain. All of his potential primary challengers are useless.

Maybe. But there is no one more useless in Washington than the whiny perpetually bitter John McCain. God I hope he loses, primary or otherwise. I'd be okay with Senator Richard Carmona or Senator Fred Duval (surprising he is the closest, though he did seem to run an able if silent campaign for Governor) if it meant no more McCain.

Carmona/Duval are not going to defeat McCain. Sorry, but not happening. Sinema or Kirkpatrick might though....

Carmona and Duval were both closer though...

Duval totally bungled last year's governor's race, and seeing as Carmona couldn't win in an open seat in a democratic wave, it's difficult to see him beating McCain. I could see it happen with him before Duval though.

Sinema won by double digits in her basically even district last year, and Kirkpatrick won fairly comfortably when literally everyone predicted her defeat. Seems like pretty good electability records to me.

Really? He seemed to do fine for 2014. Ducey was a far better candidate than dummy Jan Brewer and yet the margin was about the same, and against Brewer democrats won an experienced politico who had won statewide races before. I don't see how he messed it up unless you expected him to actually win that year. And Carmona faced a far stronger opponent in Jeff Flake (2012 being a Democratic Wave is a bit of a stretch, and Flake a pretty moderate Republican by today's standards). Unlike Kirkpatrick and Sinema, they actually have statewide experience, and could learn lessons from that loss (See: Charlie Baker improving his performance in 2010 and winning in 2014). I'm not saying that Kirkpatrick and Sinema couldn't win - they absolutely could. But if they don't run (which I think is more likely than not), Duval or Carmona would be strong contenders as well.
McCain should actually be hoping DuVal is his challenger. While he does have statewide experience, it's definitely the wrong kind of experience. He didn't lose by that bad of a margin, but the media did find out during the campaign last year that he drove while his license was suspended. DuVal made other rookie mistakes during that campaign to if I recall correctly.

Perhaps, but you're making the assumption that a candidate who made rookie mistakes can't learn from those mistakes. Here's a non-parallel example: Charlie Baker. Baker ran a pretty bad campaign in 2010, learned from those mistakes, and did a great job in 2014. I'm not shilling for Duval, I'm just saying.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #23 on: May 05, 2015, 04:11:19 pm »

I wonder if Mccain would think about running as an independent if he knew he was facing a tough, well-funded primary challenger.
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« Reply #24 on: May 05, 2015, 04:44:22 pm »

I'm still standing by John McCain. All of his potential primary challengers are useless.

Maybe. But there is no one more useless in Washington than the whiny perpetually bitter John McCain. God I hope he loses, primary or otherwise. I'd be okay with Senator Richard Carmona or Senator Fred Duval (surprising he is the closest, though he did seem to run an able if silent campaign for Governor) if it meant no more McCain.

Carmona/Duval are not going to defeat McCain. Sorry, but not happening. Sinema or Kirkpatrick might though....

Carmona and Duval were both closer though...

Duval totally bungled last year's governor's race, and seeing as Carmona couldn't win in an open seat in a democratic wave, it's difficult to see him beating McCain. I could see it happen with him before Duval though.

Sinema won by double digits in her basically even district last year, and Kirkpatrick won fairly comfortably when literally everyone predicted her defeat. Seems like pretty good electability records to me.

2012 was not a "Democratic Wave" year and Carmona only lost by 3%.

According to one person who is 'in the know' in Arizona politics Fred Du Val is likely to take on a senior roll in the HRC campaign, and won't be a candidate for anything next year.  Ann Kirkpatrick has also expressed no interest in running at this point either, though she may just be giving Sinema the 'right of first refusal.'
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