Which is the more likely as the next UK government?
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  Which is the more likely as the next UK government?
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Question: Which is the more likely as the next UK government?
#1
Minority Labor government
 
#2
Tory/LD/DUP government-minority Tory etc. government
 
#3
Something else
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 67

Author Topic: Which is the more likely as the next UK government?  (Read 1936 times)
Torie
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« on: May 06, 2015, 10:51:13 AM »
« edited: May 06, 2015, 10:54:03 AM by Torie »

It seems based on all the polls and so forth, that it's very close as to whether or not the Tories, LD's and PUD's can reach the magic 323 number, or reach it with the UKIP (thus some sort of minority government). But it seems that they are about 10 seats short. The numbers don't seem there for a Labor led coalition to get to 323 without the SNP, and the SNP will not be part of a government. So the alternative, perhaps the most likely one if the polls and seat projections are right, is for a Labor minority government, with the SNP allowing such a government to hold on for a period of time. But polls and so forth can be off a bit. What do you think is the most likely scenario? Option 3 is for those who think I'm clueless. Smiley
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International Brotherhood of Bernard
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« Reply #1 on: May 06, 2015, 10:11:54 PM »

I think Cameron's going to get the boot for the same reason Reinfeldt did in Sweden, that is the center-right bloc was without a Parliamentary majority from the onset (which is a horrible place to be in when you're the incumbent government, that situation is part of what felled KRudd down in Aus) and face stiff opposition on their right flank, handing victory to the left by virtue of not losing as badly/making marginal gains. And it's not like the SNP would oppose a Labour government barring any truly horrendous actions by Labour, considering they've staked their entire campaign on Tory-bashing.
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Adam T
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« Reply #2 on: May 07, 2015, 12:20:56 AM »

i still say it will be the 'grand coalition' despite some here telling me that will never happen.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #3 on: May 07, 2015, 12:29:10 AM »

I voted Labour. Though it's near impossible to tell, I would think that's slightly more likely though I am quite hopeful still. My expectation is that Lib Dems are under-polling and Labour gets shut down in Scotland.

Right now, Con + LD + DUP = LAB + SNP + SDLP + Green  (+/- 1 or 2). 319-320 a piece.

Neither of those looks like a majority unless LD can get up from 29-30 to 33 or so without cannibalising conservative seats.
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andrew_c
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« Reply #4 on: May 07, 2015, 03:04:54 AM »

I think a Labour minority is the most probable government. The Conservatives will probably win the most seats,  but they will have a more difficult time mustering the votes needed to stay in power.
As for a Conservative/Labour grand coalition, that would never happen. Those two parties would rather dissolve parliament than work together.
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Gary J
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« Reply #5 on: May 07, 2015, 03:10:44 AM »

I think a Labour minority is the most probable government. The Conservatives will probably win the most seats,  but they will have a more difficult time mustering the votes needed to stay in power.
As for a Conservative/Labour grand coalition, that would never happen. Those two parties would rather dissolve parliament than work together.

The Grand Coalition comes after the second inconclusive general election of the year.
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Kalimantan
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« Reply #6 on: May 07, 2015, 04:50:28 AM »
« Edited: May 07, 2015, 04:56:18 AM by Kalimantan »

I voted Labour minority in your poll, but a perhaps more likely scenario is a Lab-LD minority coalition. They will still need SNP votes to survive, but at least a Lab-LD coalition will command more seats than the Tories, thus giving them more credibility, and they will also win votes when the SNP abstain (which they will do on any England-only measure.) It will therefore be in Labour's interests to seek this coalition, if the election result goes as predicted.
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Badger
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« Reply #7 on: May 07, 2015, 07:24:43 AM »

I voted Labour minority in your poll, but a perhaps more likely scenario is a Lab-LD minority coalition. They will still need SNP votes to survive, but at least a Lab-LD coalition will command more seats than the Tories, thus giving them more credibility, and they will also win votes when the SNP abstain (which they will do on any England-only measure.) It will therefore be in Labour's interests to seek this coalition, if the election result goes as predicted.

Ive wondered about this too. forgive my ignorance, but why wouldn't the LDs be inclined to join an anti-Tory coalition? i realize they're not necessarily friends of Labor, and their top priority would be which party offers them offers them more influence/power in a government plus the chance to kill FPTP, but why does everyone seem to think an alliance with the Tories is the more likely outcome?
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Torie
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« Reply #8 on: May 07, 2015, 09:00:51 AM »

I voted Labour minority in your poll, but a perhaps more likely scenario is a Lab-LD minority coalition. They will still need SNP votes to survive, but at least a Lab-LD coalition will command more seats than the Tories, thus giving them more credibility, and they will also win votes when the SNP abstain (which they will do on any England-only measure.) It will therefore be in Labour's interests to seek this coalition, if the election result goes as predicted.

Ive wondered about this too. forgive my ignorance, but why wouldn't the LDs be inclined to join an anti-Tory coalition? i realize they're not necessarily friends of Labor, and their top priority would be which party offers them offers them more influence/power in a government plus the chance to kill FPTP, but why does everyone seem to think an alliance with the Tories is the more likely outcome?

Because it is more likely a Tory led coalition would get to 323 votes. If Labour cannot get to that number with the LD's, and the whole thing could come down at a time of the SNP's choosing, it seems to me the the LD's would be better off in the opposition if no coalition can get to 323.  What really can Labour plus the SNP give the LD's on policy matters that they would not otherwise get being in the opposition?
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #9 on: May 07, 2015, 09:07:36 AM »

Also because the LDs would be #3 is size with Labour vs #2 with the Tories... So a huge kick down in status and power. They'd much prefer the power they have now.
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #10 on: May 07, 2015, 09:16:43 AM »

My feeling is that there will be a small shift from Labour to Conservative today due to a number of wavering voters not wanting Ed Miliband as prime minister. I also suspect the Lib Dems are under polling due to the stigma of being a Lib Dem voter at present (mainly due to all the vitriol directed at them during the past 5 years).

So the Tories will get around 291 with the Lib Dems on about 32 seats. That will just be enough to get a renewal of the present coalition. In addition I would expect an agreement (formal or informal) with the DUP as their 8-9 seats in this scenario will be crucial.  
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Torie
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« Reply #11 on: May 07, 2015, 09:35:09 AM »

Despite Clegg's chatter to the contrary, one thing I cannot image the LD's doing is delivering its votes for an EU referendum in exchange for less social spending cuts. Since the Tories won't have the votes to do either anyway, why should the LD's agree to do that? So it may be a more informal arrangement that is made between the LD's and the Tories, which might suit Cameron just fine, since I doubt he really wants an EU referendum, which portends nothing but trouble for him and the British economy.
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Peter
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« Reply #12 on: May 07, 2015, 01:20:37 PM »

Doubly hung, much as SMilo suggests above.

Leads to both sides having a go at a Queens Speech. Even if one manages it, the government is not able to function for more than a few months and we go back to the country. Possibility of some non party leader being named as caretaker PM with Sir Jeremy Haywood (Cabinet Secretary) keeping the country ticking over.
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Torie
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« Reply #13 on: May 07, 2015, 01:53:17 PM »
« Edited: May 07, 2015, 02:01:20 PM by Torie »

Doubly hung, much as SMilo suggests above.

Leads to both sides having a go at a Queens Speech. Even if one manages it, the government is not able to function for more than a few months and we go back to the country. Possibility of some non party leader being named as caretaker PM with Sir Jeremy Haywood (Cabinet Secretary) keeping the country ticking over.

How is this possible? The remaining 6 seats are held by the UKIP (Sein Fein being out of it, so the magic number being 323)? Milo btw does not have the Welsh party in his formula I see, with their 3 votes or whatever. Their leader has said they were open to working with Labour.
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Peter
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« Reply #14 on: May 07, 2015, 02:43:31 PM »

Apologies, my definition of a "doubly hung" is that there is two party combination that can command a majority (other than possibly C+SNP, which we all know is a non-starter), and so three+ parties would be required.

I don't think there would be any long term viable 3 party deals, even if they might temporarily get enough together to control a majority it couldn't hold.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #15 on: May 08, 2015, 02:02:17 AM »

The irony in Atlas believing the polls the one time the polls(or at least seat projections) were horribly wrong.
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