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  AZ-PPP: Paul/Huck/Christie with a lead against Hillary, others are about tied
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Author Topic: AZ-PPP: Paul/Huck/Christie with a lead against Hillary, others are about tied  (Read 2978 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: May 06, 2015, 12:35:45 pm »

Chris Christie .................................................. 46%
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 39%

Rand Paul ....................................................... 45%
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 40%

Mike Huckabee ............................................... 44%
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 41%

Marco Rubio ................................................... 43%
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 41%

Scott Walker ................................................... 44%
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 43%

Ted Cruz ......................................................... 44%
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 43%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 41%
Jeb Bush......................................................... 41%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 42%
Ben Carson..................................................... 42%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 44%
Rick Perry ....................................................... 41%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/05/clinton-close-to-most-republicans-in-arizona.html
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yeah_93
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« Reply #1 on: May 06, 2015, 12:43:03 pm »

The only surprise is that Bush is tied with Clinton. At least IMO. Also, why is Christie polling that big when he's only at 5% in the primary?

Good for Paul, though.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: May 06, 2015, 12:43:11 pm »

Is Christie doing so well here because of old, conservative NJ/NY-people who retired in AZ ?
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Ebsy
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« Reply #3 on: May 06, 2015, 12:43:37 pm »

Someone should email this to Podesta.
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King
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« Reply #4 on: May 06, 2015, 12:46:37 pm »

Rubio, Jeb, Carson, and Cruz confirmed not white enough for Arizona voters.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #5 on: May 06, 2015, 12:51:16 pm »

I thought Carson would at least have a lead, but overall looks about as expected.

Sadly, Walker is looking worse and worse and I'm not even surprised at this point. I don't know how. It's not like he's gotten any name recognition since polling started. I hope that's a fixable case of anonymity but I must say I'm concerned. I had supported him initially over Paul and Christie because I thought he had the winnability factor but that is yet to be seen while my two preferred candidates may actually be quite strong (particularly Paul).

Rubio could play Clinton close, but I don't feel quite safe enough with him. Huckabee would do better than anyone on this forum expects, but despite he can't win all of swing states needed to win overall. (He'd win some for sure.) Paul is the only one I have serious faith in.
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King
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« Reply #6 on: May 06, 2015, 12:56:24 pm »

Clinton is not doing well among among Hispanic voters. Most of her strength comes from White voters...

Weirdly poor showing in the breakdown, but national polls consistently show her with the same 40+ point lead.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #7 on: May 06, 2015, 12:59:13 pm »

Hey, they polled other Democrats too!

41/26 Walker/Chafee
43/25 Walker/O'Malley
43/28 Walker/Sanders
44/26 Walker/Webb

...ouch. That name recognition.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #8 on: May 06, 2015, 02:08:04 pm »

The Christie number is really odd. Did I just step in a time machine back to late 2013?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #9 on: May 06, 2015, 02:09:23 pm »

Hey, they polled other Democrats too!

41/26 Walker/Chafee
43/25 Walker/O'Malley
43/28 Walker/Sanders
44/26 Walker/Webb

...ouch. That name recognition.

lolol

Time to throw Hillary overboard for super electable titans O'Malley and Webb.
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henster
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« Reply #10 on: May 06, 2015, 03:19:21 pm »

Obama got 45% in 2012 here and Hillary has universal name ID and can only pull 41-43 against lesser know opponents. Confirms my thoughts that AZ is Likely R going into 2016.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #11 on: May 06, 2015, 03:24:53 pm »

Obama got 45% in 2012 here and Hillary has universal name ID and can only pull 41-43 against lesser know opponents. Confirms my thoughts that AZ is Likely R going into 2016.
It has the potential to become a much closer race, and Clinton's numbers are not bad at all.
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #12 on: May 06, 2015, 03:30:23 pm »

Obama got 45% in 2012 here and Hillary has universal name ID and can only pull 41-43 against lesser know opponents. Confirms my thoughts that AZ is Likely R going into 2016.
It has the potential to become a much closer race, and Clinton's numbers are not bad at all.

It's still a huge stretch to say it's anything but likely R...
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Joshua
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« Reply #13 on: May 06, 2015, 03:31:59 pm »

Great news! The three people doing the best in Arizona against Hillary are the three people that won't win the primary!
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Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #14 on: May 06, 2015, 03:47:06 pm »

Great news! The three people doing the best in Arizona against Hillary are the three people that won't win the primary!

I think Rand Paul has a good shot. Not as good as Bush or Walker, but still a good shot.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #15 on: May 06, 2015, 05:05:19 pm »

Hillary's numbers aren't bad. If she wants to make the state competitive though, she has to do better. The Democratic nominee in the past 4 elections has always been in the 44's, so she could have a chance. Maybe she won't win the state, but losing with, say, 48%, isn't half bad.
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Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #16 on: May 06, 2015, 05:11:07 pm »

This state was actively polled in 2008, and on election day, McCain outperformed the last month or so polling by several points. My guess is this state is like Georgia in that undecideds break almost unanimously for the republican, but Hillary may be able to get the republicans to spend a few dollars here with limited campaigning. However, she shouldn't devote a full effort to it unless she has undeniably locked down NV, CO, IA, WI, PA, OH, NH, VA, and FL first. It's not the state that will give her a victory, it's the state that will magnify an already excellent election night.
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RFayette
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« Reply #17 on: May 06, 2015, 10:14:16 pm »

I thought Carson would at least have a lead, but overall looks about as expected.

Sadly, Walker is looking worse and worse and I'm not even surprised at this point. I don't know how. It's not like he's gotten any name recognition since polling started. I hope that's a fixable case of anonymity but I must say I'm concerned. I had supported him initially over Paul and Christie because I thought he had the winnability factor but that is yet to be seen while my two preferred candidates may actually be quite strong (particularly Paul).

Rubio could play Clinton close, but I don't feel quite safe enough with him. Huckabee would do better than anyone on this forum expects, but despite he can't win all of swing states needed to win overall. (He'd win some for sure.) Paul is the only one I have serious faith in.

I literally feel the exact same way!  I was pumped about a Walker candidacy, but once I saw his home-state approval ratings, I began to abandon him.  I think Rand is our best hope now and I sure hope he can win.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #18 on: May 06, 2015, 10:27:02 pm »

I thought Carson would at least have a lead, but overall looks about as expected.

Sadly, Walker is looking worse and worse and I'm not even surprised at this point. I don't know how. It's not like he's gotten any name recognition since polling started. I hope that's a fixable case of anonymity but I must say I'm concerned. I had supported him initially over Paul and Christie because I thought he had the winnability factor but that is yet to be seen while my two preferred candidates may actually be quite strong (particularly Paul).

Rubio could play Clinton close, but I don't feel quite safe enough with him. Huckabee would do better than anyone on this forum expects, but despite he can't win all of swing states needed to win overall. (He'd win some for sure.) Paul is the only one I have serious faith in.

I literally feel the exact same way!  I was pumped about a Walker candidacy, but once I saw his home-state approval ratings, I began to abandon him.  I think Rand is our best hope now and I sure hope he can win.
Spoiler: He can't.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #19 on: May 06, 2015, 10:27:56 pm »

If Arizona is within 5% for Hillary Clinton, then Colorado and Nevada are hers by bigger margins than for Obama in either 2008 or 2012.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #20 on: May 06, 2015, 10:46:40 pm »

One of the interesting crosstabs though was with Christie vs. Hillary. Christie's getting a strong bit of crossover support from Obama voters while Romney voters are a bit more undecided thus far. Definitely a good sign that we should keep tabs on in other states.

Huckabee also has a lot of outstanding Romney support, but can we count on him to pick that up? Especially in other states that's unlikely.

Paul vs. Clinton is going to give us incredible crosstabs. Nearly identical undecideds based on 2012 vote with a good deal of crossing over. More proof that could be ripe for realigning the current coalitions - something the GOP needs desperately since the current map is such an uphill battle.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #21 on: May 06, 2015, 11:23:02 pm »

I've said this many times before but AZ is fool's gold for the Dems. Regardless of the popular vote nationally, since 2000 the Democratic candidate has received 44-45% of the vote. I believe that's what Hillary will get too.

But ouch at that tie for Bush.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #22 on: May 07, 2015, 12:19:11 am »

Is Christie doing so well here because of old, conservative NJ/NY-people who retired in AZ ?

if you look at the poll details, the reason Christie is doing well is strong performance with moderates, women and Latinos. This poll looks exactly like the kind of thing Christie would hope for nationally and would have expected without all his problems for the last year. It is as if AZ has been sealed away in a time capsule.
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« Reply #23 on: May 07, 2015, 12:31:22 am »

Perry 16'!!
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Joshua
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« Reply #24 on: May 07, 2015, 12:34:06 am »

I've said this many times before but AZ is fool's gold for the Dems. Regardless of the popular vote nationally, since 2000 the Democratic candidate has received 44-45% of the vote. I believe that's what Hillary will get too.

But ouch at that tie for Bush.

I agree. I think that it would have been much closer in 2008 if it wasn't McCain's home state, maybe around a 5-6% victory for the Republicans. And I don't see Dems winning any state that they didn't win in 2008 in 2016.
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