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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  AZ-PPP: Paul/Huck/Christie with a lead against Hillary, others are about tied
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Author Topic: AZ-PPP: Paul/Huck/Christie with a lead against Hillary, others are about tied  (Read 2973 times)
yeah_93
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« Reply #25 on: May 07, 2015, 05:51:32 am »

Is Christie doing so well here because of old, conservative NJ/NY-people who retired in AZ ?

if you look at the poll details, the reason Christie is doing well is strong performance with moderates, women and Latinos. This poll looks exactly like the kind of thing Christie would hope for nationally and would have expected without all his problems for the last year. It is as if AZ has been sealed away in a time capsule.
Exactly. That's why it's so weird.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #26 on: May 07, 2015, 06:17:01 am »

Is Christie doing so well here because of old, conservative NJ/NY-people who retired in AZ ?

if you look at the poll details, the reason Christie is doing well is strong performance with moderates, women and Latinos. This poll looks exactly like the kind of thing Christie would hope for nationally and would have expected without all his problems for the last year. It is as if AZ has been sealed away in a time capsule.
Exactly. That's why it's so weird.

You guys haven't been paying attention to the crosstabs in other polls.  Christie getting the most crossover support from Democrats, even now in 2015, is not that unusual.  We've seen it in other polls, and I've pointed it out before, like in this Quinnipiac national poll:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=208441.msg4510722#msg4510722

That's not unusual.  What's different in this Arizona poll though is Christie's support **among Republicans**.  He's doing about as well among Republicans in the Christie/Clinton matchup as other Republicans are in their own matchups with Clinton, whereas in other polls over the past year, the Christie/Clinton matchup has yielded an unusually large number of Republican defections to Clinton.
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NV less likely to flip than FL/WI
xingkerui
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« Reply #27 on: May 07, 2015, 12:13:38 pm »

While pollsters tend to underestimate Latino turnout in states like NV and CO (which is why Obama significantly overperformed his polling there), polling tends to overestimate Latino turnout in AZ, thus Republicans tend to overperform polling. AZ is definitely Likely R, it would only go Democratic in a wave.
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #28 on: May 09, 2015, 07:38:13 am »

New Poll: Arizona President by Public Policy Polling on 2015-05-03

Summary: D: 42%, R: 43%, U: 16%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #29 on: May 11, 2015, 04:46:07 am »

I've said this many times before but AZ is fool's gold for the Dems.
Yes, but they should still contest the state. It's not going dem yet, but could do so sometime in the 20's.
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