UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread)
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  UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread)
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Author Topic: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread)  (Read 174236 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: May 07, 2015, 01:19:06 AM »

Election Day has arrived !

Please post election day news and later the results here.

I've asked Hashemite to lock the other thread.
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BaconBacon96
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« Reply #1 on: May 07, 2015, 01:35:50 AM »

Oh it's intense!
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #2 on: May 07, 2015, 01:44:32 AM »

Election Day has arrived !

Please post election day news and later the results here.

I've asked Hashemite to lock the other thread.

I saved him the bother. Smiley

Anyway, still at least another six polls (of one kind or another) to go; four voting intention polls, a "how did you vote?" poll from Populus and the exit poll at 10PM BST.
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YL
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« Reply #3 on: May 07, 2015, 02:19:22 AM »

I just voted against the Deputy Prime Minister.

There was a short queue.  There weren't any tellers (people who sit outside the polling station and ask you for your registration number so that their party knows you've voted and doesn't knock on your door when they're doing their GOTV in the evening) which surprised me a bit.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #4 on: May 07, 2015, 03:41:09 AM »

Just voted. First time I've ever known a queue at a polling station, but then this is the first general election in which I have voted.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #5 on: May 07, 2015, 04:30:05 AM »

Ashcroft: Lab 33 (+3), Con 33 (+1), UKIP 11 (-1), Lib Dems 10 (-1), Greens 6 (-1)
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #6 on: May 07, 2015, 06:08:43 AM »
« Edited: May 07, 2015, 06:15:10 AM by Phony Moderate »

Ipsos-MORI: Con 36 (+1) Lab 35 (+5), UKIP 11 (+1), Lib Dems 8 (nc)

Not sure about the Greens' figure.

82% say they are "absolutely certain to vote".

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jaichind
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« Reply #7 on: May 07, 2015, 06:33:01 AM »

Conservative leader David Cameron now 5/6 at Betfair; previously had been evens.
Labour leader Ed Miliband’s odds of becoming PM lengthen to 6/5 from evens, Betfair says in e-mail
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jaichind
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« Reply #8 on: May 07, 2015, 06:33:31 AM »

Final Populus VI: Lab 33 (-1), Con 33 (-1), LD 10 (-), UKIP 14 (+1), Greens 5 (-), Others 5 (-)
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jaichind
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« Reply #9 on: May 07, 2015, 06:34:04 AM »

GUARDIAN/ICM POLL

LABOUR 35%, CONSERVATIVE 34% UKIP 11%, LIB DEM 9%, SNP 5%, GREENS 4%
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Kalimantan
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« Reply #10 on: May 07, 2015, 06:35:21 AM »

Ipsos-MORI: Con 36 (+1) Lab 35 (+5), UKIP 11 (+1), Lib Dems 8 (nc)

Not sure about the Greens' figure.

82% say they are "absolutely certain to vote".



Talk about coming into line with everyone else. Now I think every poll has Labour and the Tories within 1 of each other
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jaichind
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« Reply #11 on: May 07, 2015, 06:37:04 AM »

 ICM’s final “wisdom of crowds index”, respondents’ averaged best guess of how each party will score, continues to put the Tories ahead on 35%, compared to 32% Labour. Voters also envisage the Lib Dems on 14%, ahead of Ukip on 10%
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #12 on: May 07, 2015, 06:39:57 AM »

Ipsos-MORI: Con 36 (+1) Lab 35 (+5), UKIP 11 (+1), Lib Dems 8 (nc)

Not sure about the Greens' figure.

82% say they are "absolutely certain to vote".



Talk about coming into line with everyone else. Now I think every poll has Labour and the Tories within 1 of each other

Looks like another last minute methodology change.
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jaichind
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« Reply #13 on: May 07, 2015, 06:50:53 AM »

Pretty much all the political betting shops odds has CON+LD around 316 seats which I guess is their basis for better than even odds for Cameron for PM.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #14 on: May 07, 2015, 06:53:45 AM »

Pretty much all the political betting shops odds has CON+LD around 316 seats which I guess is their basis for better than even odds for Cameron for PM.

That's an extremely optimistic seat count.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #15 on: May 07, 2015, 06:54:20 AM »

Pretty much all the political betting shops odds has CON+LD around 316 seats which I guess is their basis for better than even odds for Cameron for PM.

For what it's worth, the bookies were predicting a 80-90 seat or so lead for the Tories on election day 2010.
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #16 on: May 07, 2015, 06:55:31 AM »

There have only been three Labour leaders who have won a parliamentary majority in the House Of Commons:

Clement Attlee (twice), Harold Wilson (three times) and Tony Blair (three times).

Can Ed Miliband add himself to this list?

I severely doubt it myself...
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #17 on: May 07, 2015, 07:24:36 AM »

What websites are people using for election results?
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #18 on: May 07, 2015, 07:35:38 AM »

What websites are people using for election results?


Mostly the BBC. Possibly Twitter for rumours etc (although caution is required there).
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Torie
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« Reply #19 on: May 07, 2015, 07:44:33 AM »
« Edited: May 07, 2015, 07:59:52 AM by Torie »

Well, this election forecast site using the ICM poll as part of the data input, says that last 1 point uptick in Labour’s ICM poll numbers cost the Tories 3 seats in its median projection, with Labor netting one more seat (losing two more to the SNP, while gaining 3 from the Tories). With the SNP bagging two more seats, Labour is projected to snag but one seat in Scotland now (well maybe 4 seats, since its map has the SNP at 54, with 3 Labour seats, and the individual seat projections don't exactly match the seat totals because of the odds thing - having a one third chance of winning in 3 seats arguably means winning one of them arguably in a overall seat number projection). That one point really did not do Labour much good in the black box's number crunching, but given the numbers in play, every seat counts obviously, potentially a lot.

The image below shows both the numbers before the final ICM poll came out an hour ago, and the changed numbers per its tweet of 10 minutes ago.



My gut feeling is that the Tories will do a bit better than this (maybe getting 290 seats), but it’s not a data based feeling, other than that Ed is not held in particularly high personal regard, and the Tory incumbency factor, which obviously this site probably took into account already, but whatever.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #20 on: May 07, 2015, 07:50:31 AM »

What websites are people using for election results?


Just watching BBC
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #21 on: May 07, 2015, 08:15:43 AM »

Bottom-feeding wing of Tory blogosphere getting a little bit paranoid.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #22 on: May 07, 2015, 08:19:23 AM »

Bottom-feeding wing of Tory blogosphere getting a little bit paranoid.

Those comments... Holy s***
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jaichind
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« Reply #23 on: May 07, 2015, 08:21:05 AM »

Bottom-feeding wing of Tory blogosphere getting a little bit paranoid.

The pencil actually points to UKIP
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Rocky Rockefeller
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« Reply #24 on: May 07, 2015, 09:48:28 AM »

So, When do the polls close tonight?
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