UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread)

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The Tories have pulled ahead of Labour for the first time in the BBC seat count.

In votes too.

[retromike22]

Who's the guy with the raised fist?

[ChrisDR68]

Cameron doesn't appear too relaxed.

He'll find being PM in this parliament much harder than in the last one. His right wingers will make his life hell just like they did with John Major.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The 538 model is based only on projecting from actual results and not considering the exit polls, which explains its seemingly random fluctuations, especially this early.

Only a Dick Morris would think that Liberal Democrats are going to get at least 44 seats.

[Paleobrazilian]

Electoral Calculus believes the Tories will be just short of the overall majority. BBC seems to be afraid of making a prediction now. 538 has the Conservatives at 322, Election Forecast sees a 43% chance of 323 seats or more.

Edit: now Election Forecast has it at 65%.

[ObserverIE]

Cameron doesn't appear too relaxed.

He'll find being PM in this parliament much harder than in the last one. His right wingers will make his life hell just like they did with John Major.

The Tories have devoured the Lib Dem lifebelt.

Lib Dems have apparently held North Norfolk to bring them up to 7.

[ag]

Latest BBC projection- 325-232

1 short of majority

SF will not take their seats so 325 will be a majority.

Add the two UUP guys, who are Tories in all but name, and 8 DUP guys, who would support them, and you have it pretty safe.

[jaichind]

Why is SW UK so slow in their count?

[jaichind]

So far LAB gained 7 seats from CON in England.  But CON gained 6 seats from LAB in England.  Pretty much as wash.

[Ebsy]

The real story is the Conservative pickups from the LibDems.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

And the Tories have taken back Corby!

[BaconBacon96]

Tories take the lead.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Add the two UUP guys, who are Tories in all but name, and 8 DUP guys, who would support them, and you have it pretty safe.

Correct (ish) on the UUP, but the DUP are no friends of the Tories and will demand a price.

[Talleyrand]

Danny Alexander loses.

[MaxQue]

Latest BBC projection- 325-232

1 short of majority

SF will not take their seats so 325 will be a majority.

Add the two UUP guys, who are Tories in all but name, and 8 DUP guys, who would support them, and you have it pretty safe.

Why DUP would support them? They will only if Cameron gives them goodies, and I don't see him wasting money on NI if not needed.

[Kalimantan]

Why is SW UK so slow in their count?

SW UK people are pretty slow in everything

[Paleobrazilian]

Perhaps Ed Balls' seat will be the one who puts the Conservatives above 325. Now that would be funny.

[Phony Moderate]

David Laws out!

[ag]

Latest BBC projection- 325-232

1 short of majority

SF will not take their seats so 325 will be a majority.

Add the two UUP guys, who are Tories in all but name, and 8 DUP guys, who would support them, and you have it pretty safe.

Why DUP would support them? They will only if Cameron gives them goodies, and I don't see him wasting money on NI if not needed.

Well, it is needed. You know, there are always deaths and by-elections.

[ObserverIE]

BBC projecting Lib Dem position "improving" from 10 to 12. I don't see how it can move beyond 7.

[Talleyrand]

Labour gain Cambridge from Liberal Democrats.

[© tweed]

it gets bright mad early in the morning over there.  I should've known that from Wimbledon.  makes the all-nighters these wizards have to pull a bit more tolerable, I'd imagine.

[Peeperkorn]

CON improvement in 538.

321 MIN. 325 EXP. 329 MAX.

LOL at:

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

-21 for CON/LD
+20 for LAB/SNP

That gaps just keeps widening... Still waiting for the good news for the right.

[Donerail]

If the Tories win what I think is a recount against the SNP in Berwickshire, they could end up the second-largest party (by number of MPs) in Scotland.