UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread)

[Clyde1998]

Protests on the streets of London today: https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.990107307666350.1073742020.593116884032063&type=1

Wait until the cuts start happening...

#LondonRiots.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The South East.

[Clyde1998]

The South East.

That's terrifying for me...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

East Midlands.

[Phony Moderate]

All of the major parties, bar the Tories, are currently led by women (either in acting or permanent form).

[You kip if you want to...]

The South East.

That's terrifying for me...

Where can Labour even try and break through?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Eastern England.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

The South East.

That's terrifying for me...

Where can Labour even try and break through?

Hove, Southampton, northwestern Kent, Dover/Thanet, and a few others (example Hastings and Rye)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Most of the South East is out of bounds to Labour even in a really good year. But it was ever thus: the future of the Labour Party does not, I suspect, rest on its ability to win Surrey.

[adma]

Funny how the Lib Dem collapse resulted in so much of Toryland now looking like Chretien-era Liberal Ontario, where the leading party's formidably 'way on top, hovering over a motley gang mired in teens and second digits...

[rbt48]

What is a good website to see the actual MP results seat by seat?

[Meeker]

Al, Plaid Cymru seems to only win support from Welsh-speaking voters. Does the party accept this as their fate and continue on with the hope of maintaining the status quo for as long as possible? Or do they actually have dreams of winning over English-speaking voters?

[Lief 🗽]

Labour never won the South East in Blair's majorities, but they did do a lot better in the constituencies along the Thames and around the Thames Estuary.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Here's a map using Al's template of UKIP in Wales



As you can see it's very even. In no seat did UKIP get over 20% of the vote and only in four did they get under 10% and then with no lost deposits. While there were a few second places, nowhere were they close to winning. Their worst results were in Cardiff then following by the Welsh speaking parts of Wales and Powys. Their best results in mostly in the valleys and around Deeside. In particularly they did well - scoring over 19% in three constituencies - in the Eastern Valleys. However, as I've tried to make clear, there was no real standout result.

[BaconBacon96]

So I have to ask. What kind of voter voted Lib Dem in 2010 and Conservative in 2015? I understand the kind who shifted to Labour and the Greens and those who shifted to UKIP but the ones who shifted to the Tories are puzzling me, especially considering they seem to be the largest group.

[Phony Moderate]

So I have to ask. What kind of voter voted Lib Dem in 2010 and Conservative in 2015? I understand the kind who shifted to Labour and the Greens and those who shifted to UKIP but the ones who shifted to the Tories are puzzling me, especially considering they seem to be the largest group.

Small 'l' liberals who are antipathetic to Labour and feel that the Cameron-led Tory Party is liberal enough (which it is) for them.

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov election reaction poll out. Highlight: support for Scottish independence has surged in the rUK and a plurality of people now say that England and Wales would be better off without Scotland. Also, there is a 45-45 divide about the Tory majority.

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/iznjhc72l9/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-090515.pdf

[Diouf]

And a 47-32 lead for proportional representation over FPTP. There obviously won't be much chance of a change happening now with a Tory majority, but positively surprised by that. It suggests that in the future, it might not be completely impossible, especially if the reform camp is led by Someone Who Is Not Nick Clegg. Now that UKIP is those hurt the most by the system, then perhaps the old voters, who would actually turn up for such a referendum, would be less opposed. The poll shows that 60+ voters prefer PR by 48 to 36. The FPTP would of course grow doing a referendum campaign with the easy message of "chaos, chaos, chaos" with PR, but if the numbers are like that now it looks good. Labour might also be less opposed to PR now that they don't have the Scotland seats anymore which made FPTP even more favourable for them.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

YouGov election reaction poll out. Highlight: support for Scottish independence has surged in the rUK and a plurality of people now say that England and Wales would be better off without Scotland. Also, there is a 45-45 divide about the Tory majority.

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/iznjhc72l9/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-090515.pdf

Had a look through the poll, and I do wonder... who on earth are the 7% of UKIP voters who want the UK to remain in the EU?

[Lurker]

YouGov election reaction poll out. Highlight: support for Scottish independence has surged in the rUK and a plurality of people now say that England and Wales would be better off without Scotland. Also, there is a 45-45 divide about the Tory majority.

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/iznjhc72l9/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-090515.pdf

Had a look through the poll, and I do wonder... who on earth are the 7% of UKIP voters who want the UK to remain in the EU?

And who are the Liberal Democrat voters who are "delighted"/"pleased on balance" with a result that has all but destroyed their party?

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov election reaction poll out. Highlight: support for Scottish independence has surged in the rUK and a plurality of people now say that England and Wales would be better off without Scotland. Also, there is a 45-45 divide about the Tory majority.

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/iznjhc72l9/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-090515.pdf

Had a look through the poll, and I do wonder... who on earth are the 7% of UKIP voters who want the UK to remain in the EU?

Not quite all SNP voters favour independence, not quite all Greens are obsessed with environmental preservation. I suspect they are working-class voters who voted UKIP for their immigration stance and are fairly apathetic or unknowledgeable about the EU issue.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

YouGov election reaction poll out. Highlight: support for Scottish independence has surged in the rUK and a plurality of people now say that England and Wales would be better off without Scotland. Also, there is a 45-45 divide about the Tory majority.

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/iznjhc72l9/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-090515.pdf

Had a look through the poll, and I do wonder... who on earth are the 7% of UKIP voters who want the UK to remain in the EU?

And who are the Liberal Democrat voters who are "delighted"/"pleased on balance" with a result that has all but destroyed their party?

Probably the right side of the party which ultimately wanted Cameron to stay in power. Most probably voted Lib Dem strategically in a two horse race with SNP or Labour to no avail.

[Peter]

And who are the Liberal Democrat voters who are "delighted"/"pleased on balance" with a result that has all but destroyed their party?

There will be a handful of Lib Dem voters who are in fact not LD supporters - there will have been Tory supporters who voted LD in LD-Lab marginals such as Sheffield Hallam believing that a need to retain the coalition was paramount. They should rightly be "delighted" with the result, though I can't honestly believe 9% of the LD vote is a tactical Tory element.

There will be others who are Orange Book liberals who believed in the personal finance reforms of the coalition (increase in personal allowance, pension reform, etc) who soundly believe it will continue under a Conservative only govt. I think they could be said to be "pleased on balance", however not all will be!

The Beveridge side of the party should rightly be dismayed at the loss of so many MPs, including so many of their own senior staff (though interestingly more Beveridge MPs survived than Orange Bookers), however, they may actually believe that now being out of coalition gives them hope to rebuild.

[DC Al Fine]

YouGov election reaction poll out. Highlight: support for Scottish independence has surged in the rUK and a plurality of people now say that England and Wales would be better off without Scotland. Also, there is a 45-45 divide about the Tory majority.

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/iznjhc72l9/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-090515.pdf

Had a look through the poll, and I do wonder... who on earth are the 7% of UKIP voters who want the UK to remain in the EU?

Generic protest voters. Probably a lot of LibDem --> UKIP voters in that 7%.

[jaichind]

Looks like the first poll after the election by Survation

CON     40
LAB      31
LD         6
UKIP    12
Green    4