UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread)
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  UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread)
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Author Topic: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread)  (Read 174222 times)
Torie
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« Reply #1300 on: May 11, 2015, 10:52:46 AM »

FWIW, here is Lord Ashcroft's post election poll.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #1301 on: May 11, 2015, 11:29:35 AM »
« Edited: May 11, 2015, 11:35:23 AM by Bacon King »

FWIW, here is Lord Ashcroft's post election poll.

A third of LibDem support was just tactical votes

Edit: and Labour actually won voters who made up their mind on election day as well as those who made up their mind a few days before
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1302 on: May 11, 2015, 11:34:43 AM »

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joevsimp
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« Reply #1303 on: May 11, 2015, 12:08:39 PM »

no real surprises there, apart from the Isle of Wight (although it does have a fair few unemployed people who used to work in a wind turbine factory before it was closed down)

i feel we underperformed in London a bit but that was partly tactics as there were no local elcetions to try and coattail in cllrs
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« Reply #1304 on: May 11, 2015, 12:11:27 PM »

I'm mainly surprised by their strength in Devon. Wtf?
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Torie
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« Reply #1305 on: May 11, 2015, 12:19:54 PM »
« Edited: May 11, 2015, 12:51:22 PM by Torie »

FWIW, here is Lord Ashcroft's post election poll.

A third of LibDem support was just tactical votes

Edit: and Labour actually won voters who made up their mind on election day as well as those who made up their mind a few days before

Actually, per my math, more than 3/4 of the LD vote were tactical voters trying to stop another party. 19% of the electorate were tactical voters. A third of them (34%) voted LD, or a tad over 6% (6.46%). The LD's got 8% of the vote (7.9%). 6/8 = 75% (81.18% to be exact - 6.46%/7.9% = 81.18%). With the Greens out there and getting some traction, I suspect that there is a substantial possibility that the LD's will just disappear. There is political space for only so many parties at any one time. The LD's never made much sense to me in recent years anyway. They had no real raison d'être. They have next to none now.

I am assuming that this poll has at least some nexus with reality of course.
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #1306 on: May 11, 2015, 12:24:36 PM »

Farage back as UKIP leader already... http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32696505
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #1307 on: May 11, 2015, 12:37:23 PM »

I saw his Facebook statement today; I guess UKIP's committee resoundingly rejected his resignation.
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YL
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« Reply #1308 on: May 11, 2015, 01:14:31 PM »

Actually, per my math, more than 3/4 of the LD vote were tactical voters trying to stop another party. 19% of the electorate were tactical voters. A third of them (34%) voted LD, or a tad over 6% (6.46%). The LD's got 8% of the vote (7.9%). 6/8 = 75% (81.18% to be exact - 6.46%/7.9% = 81.18%).

From Table 9, the percentage of Lib Dem voters whose first reason for voting them was tactical was 22%.  From Table 12, the percentage who put it in their top three reasons was 34%.

They also, unsurprisingly, seem to have a high proportion of personal votes: 21% had a personal vote as their top reason, and 43% in their top three.

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As it's a poll on the 2015 UK election, and not the exit poll, this may not be a safe assumption.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1309 on: May 11, 2015, 01:40:07 PM »

I'm mainly surprised by their strength in Devon. Wtf?

Some towns in Devon have a certain alternative vibe (Totnes especially) and there's also the possibility that UKIP's approach from last year onwards was less attractive to some former Liberal voters out there.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1310 on: May 11, 2015, 01:51:35 PM »



Outside London and Scotland it's striking quite how evenly distributed their support was; even more than I was expecting actually.
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Angel of Death
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« Reply #1311 on: May 11, 2015, 02:43:46 PM »

Can anyone tell me what the point is of voting for the Speaker seeking reelection, if that person never takes a position on any substantive issue? It effectively disenfranchises the entire constituency.
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MichaelRbn
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« Reply #1312 on: May 11, 2015, 05:31:45 PM »

Can someone more knowledgeable than me discuss whether the Cameron government will be able to last the entire five year term, assuming the usual by-election losses one would anticipate?  Can they assume support from the DUP and the handful of LDs?
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Hifly
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« Reply #1313 on: May 11, 2015, 05:47:51 PM »

The past 5 Labour candidates in Westmorland and Lonsdale have all been called "John".

jao
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1314 on: May 11, 2015, 06:04:56 PM »

Can anyone tell me what the point is of voting for the Speaker seeking reelection, if that person never takes a position on any substantive issue? It effectively disenfranchises the entire constituency.

Tradition.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1315 on: May 11, 2015, 06:09:12 PM »

Can someone more knowledgeable than me discuss whether the Cameron government will be able to last the entire five year term, assuming the usual by-election losses one would anticipate?  Can they assume support from the DUP and the handful of LDs?

The majority is large enough that it's loss over the course of the parliament is not certain, but is small enough that it is not unlikely. Whether it lasts for the full course of this parliament depends to a considerable extent on luck.

On the second point, certainly not. The DUP have no love for the Tories and would demand payment in exchange for votes. Lord knows with regards to the LibDems.
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Torie
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« Reply #1316 on: May 11, 2015, 06:31:40 PM »

Can someone more knowledgeable than me discuss whether the Cameron government will be able to last the entire five year term, assuming the usual by-election losses one would anticipate?  Can they assume support from the DUP and the handful of LDs?

The majority is large enough that it's loss over the course of the parliament is not certain, but is small enough that it is not unlikely. Whether it lasts for the full course of this parliament depends to a considerable extent on luck.

On the second point, certainly not. The DUP have no love for the Tories and would demand payment in exchange for votes. Lord knows with regards to the LibDems.

What "payment" might the DUP demand? They made reassuring noises during the election, stating that they were open to working with whomever to form a stable government, based on an informal arrangement, thinking their party too small for anything more formal.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1317 on: May 11, 2015, 06:37:52 PM »

What you interpreted as reassuring was in fact the very opposite. The DUP are a bunch of shameless political whores. So by payment I mean payment: they would ask for even more government money to be spent on Northern Ireland. Perhaps a new road for every tricky vote or a giant statue of Ian Paisley in the middle of Ballymena.
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Torie
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« Reply #1318 on: May 11, 2015, 06:41:54 PM »

What you interpreted as reassuring was in fact the very opposite. The DUP are a bunch of shameless political whores. So by payment I mean payment: they would ask for even more government money to be spent on Northern Ireland. Perhaps a new road for every tricky vote or a giant statue of Ian Paisley in the middle of Ballymena.

Fair enough. What I read was some chatter about getting their income tax rate as low as Ireland's to compete, which has a certain facial reasonableness, but would be difficult to grant to them. As soon as the UK has different income tax rates for different places, it seems to me that things start to fall apart.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1319 on: May 11, 2015, 06:44:08 PM »

But all Unionist politicians are bad for this kind of thing. Take the Ulster Scots scam for instance. If state money goes on the dirty Taig language, we should invent our own one to have state money spent on it!
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #1320 on: May 11, 2015, 08:37:00 PM »

What you interpreted as reassuring was in fact the very opposite. The DUP are a bunch of shameless political whores. So by payment I mean payment: they would ask for even more government money to be spent on Northern Ireland. Perhaps a new road for every tricky vote or a giant statue of Ian Paisley in the middle of Ballymena.

Fair enough. What I read was some chatter about getting their income tax rate as low as Ireland's to compete, which has a certain facial reasonableness, but would be difficult to grant to them. As soon as the UK has different income tax rates for different places, it seems to me that things start to fall apart.

The thing to keep in mind about Northern Ireland is that with the devolved government, Stormont has control over most of the government services: healthcare, education, transportation, etc., but Westminster has the taxation power. The result is that "representing Northern Ireland's interests" means getting Westminster to appropriate as much money as possible. It makes for an interesting quirk to NI politics.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #1321 on: May 11, 2015, 08:51:43 PM »

What you interpreted as reassuring was in fact the very opposite. The DUP are a bunch of shameless political whores. So by payment I mean payment: they would ask for even more government money to be spent on Northern Ireland. Perhaps a new road for every tricky vote or a giant statue of Ian Paisley in the middle of Ballymena.

Fair enough. What I read was some chatter about getting their income tax rate as low as Ireland's to compete, which has a certain facial reasonableness, but would be difficult to grant to them. As soon as the UK has different income tax rates for different places, it seems to me that things start to fall apart.

The top rates of income taxes are higher here now (including Universal Social charge) than they are in the UK. What you are thinking of is Corporation Tax.
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Јas
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« Reply #1322 on: May 12, 2015, 02:06:03 AM »

The excellent Irish Political Maps has the relevant election maps from Northern Ireland up:

http://irishpoliticalmaps.blogspot.ie/2015/05/uk-general-election-2015-northern.html
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #1323 on: May 12, 2015, 07:09:27 AM »

Looks likely that Ed Miliband and the rest of the Labour leadership knew they were likely to lose this general election after reading this:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32606713
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Gary J
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« Reply #1324 on: May 12, 2015, 08:49:49 AM »

Can anyone tell me what the point is of voting for the Speaker seeking reelection, if that person never takes a position on any substantive issue? It effectively disenfranchises the entire constituency.

The theory is that if the Speaker has a quiet word with a government minister about a constituency issue, he or she is more likely to be listened to attentively than an ordinary back bencher making a fuss on the floor of the House.

So far as not voting on the merits of legislation, the Speaker is insulated from losing support by the convention that the major parties do not run candidates in the Speaker's constituency.

No incumbent Speaker, seeking re-election, has been defeated in a constituency election for several centuries (certainly not since they began running as the Speaker without being even a nominal party candidate in I think 1935) so the arrangement works in practice however illogical it may be.
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