UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread)

[Torie]

Well, this election forecast site using the ICM poll as part of the data input, says that last 1 point uptick in Labour’s ICM poll numbers cost the Tories 3 seats in its median projection, with Labor netting one more seat (losing two more to the SNP, while gaining 3 from the Tories). With the SNP bagging two more seats, Labour is projected to snag but one seat in Scotland now (well maybe 4 seats, since its map has the SNP at 54, with 3 Labour seats, and the individual seat projections don't exactly match the seat totals because of the odds thing - having a one third chance of winning in 3 seats arguably means winning one of them arguably in a overall seat number projection). That one point really did not do Labour much good in the black box's number crunching, but given the numbers in play, every seat counts obviously, potentially a lot.

The image below shows both the numbers before the final ICM poll came out an hour ago, and the changed numbers per its tweet of 10 minutes ago.



My gut feeling is that the Tories will do a bit better than this (maybe getting 290 seats), but it’s not a data based feeling, other than that Ed is not held in particularly high personal regard, and the Tory incumbency factor, which obviously this site probably took into account already, but whatever.

[Torie]

I haven't been following this super closely but one thing I don't get in some of the predictions and speculations I see is this: If there is majority for Labour + assorted lefties like SNP but the Tories beat Labour in seats, people seem to be saying Labour minority government is likely.

But, if SNP won't actually be in government with them (as also seems to be implied in these predictions) won't it be hell for Labour passing anything being consistently outnumbered by the Tories? In Sweden, at least, there is a huge distinction between a party being willing to do passive support (not voting against you) versus active support (voting for you). The former is sufficient if you have a plurality minority (like the last and current Swedish governments) but the latter is required if you lack even a plurality.

I feel like I'm missing something here so could someone tell me what?

Assuming Labour + SNP + the three minor left parties with their 7 or so seats = 323+, SNP will deliver the votes for most of what Labor wants to do. It will be more left wing that what any other party wants to do, so that is the best that it will get. When the SNP decides it wants another election at some point, it will cause one to happen (unless the Tories don't because the polls suck at the time for them or something). That's how the Labour minority government regime would work practically speaking it seems to me.

[Torie]

Why Bristish elections are always so boring?

Boring? Boring? Live declarations? Swingometers? Seeing big politicians eat humble pie on national TV? Not boring at all.

Plus for the report of the vote in the constituencies, they have those fringe candidates standing up there in their goofy costumes enjoying the idea that their sartorial presentations are being seen by millions. And when an incumbent goes down unexpectedly, the joy on the face of the surprise winner, and the shock and chagrin on the face of the chap who now needs to find some other way to spend his time, also adds to the drama. Fun stuff!

[Torie]

Who is the Dick Morris of British politics?

Katie Hopkins

Why Bristish elections are always so boring?

Boring? Boring? Live declarations? Swingometers? Seeing big politicians eat humble pie on national TV? Not boring at all.

Plus for the report of the vote in the constituencies, they have those fringe candidates standing up there in their goofy costumes enjoying the idea that their sartorial presentations are being seen by millions. And when an incumbent goes down unexpectedly, the joy on the face of the surprise winner, and the shock and chagrin on the face of the chap who now needs to find some other way to spend his time, also adds to the drama. Fun stuff!

Unfortunately this is untrue because they know who's won in advance of the actual declaration although the bad acting is fun to watch.

Really?  It's not a big secret? Has that always been the case? I believe it was in 2005 when Justine Greening won Putney that it seemed to me there was genuine surprise on both her face and the defeated Labor incumbent. It was a rare bright spot in an otherwise dreary Tory evening. The BBC chap said that if only the swing had been as much across the board as it was in Putney, the Tories would have had a much better evening. But it wasn't. It was an outlier.

[Torie]

So we get the exit poll in the next 50 minutes, and then nothing happens for a couple of hours until Nuneaton comes in (Labour will have a coronary if they don't nab that seat from the Tories), and then nothing more of interest for another couple of hours after that (until 9 pm EDT), other than rather irrelevant chatter, and speculation about what the exit poll portends, without really knowing. Does that about sum it up?

[Torie]

Fun fact: One of my friends is a lesbian UKIP supporter. (She's been bullish about their chances. She'll be very disappointed.)

Farage is going to get really, really wasted tonight, because he's most probably going down per what I have read (along apparently with not liking to spend too much of his day sober). He might show up on the candidate cattle call for the results barely able to stand up (since apparently they know the score some time prior to that).

[Torie]

This rag is absolutely the best there is anywhere really. The editors must have a blast putting it together. There are absolutely no limits!

[Torie]

The Daily Telegraph (or maybe the rag) did chat about a coup plot actually, with the sans culottes planning to take to the streets if Red Ed was kept out.

[Torie]

So the seat projection is that SNP won each and every Scottish seat (isn't 58 seats all Scotland has?), and the LD's have 10 seats?

[Torie]

So either the pre election polls were disastrously wrong, or the exit poll is disastrously wrong, or both were just majorly wrong. How could this happen? What spin will the pollsters offer up as an excuse for their continued existence in Britain. Or have Brits learned the fine art of lying to pollsters, which if so, I salute them.

Did the UKIP vote move massively to the Tories, outside of where they were in the hunt? Is that part of it? It would be nice if they showed the party percentages of the popular vote. Just showing seats is really hiding the ball. It's like numbers coming from outer space, that have next to no meaning as to the mechanisms, other than the Scotland thing.

[Torie]

Any chance this is wrong?

It's possible: they have been wrong before and sometimes massively. Of course (alas) they are sometimes also right. We have to wait.

The early seat calls up in North England suddenly have more meaning, don't they?  Nuneaton (sp) will be a good reality check.

[Torie]

So what you're saying is we still have no ing clue and just have to wait for the results? I'll be damned.

Ironically, if the LD collapse is real, but the Tory total overstated, suddenly Labor is in a much better position. Suddenly the Tories need about 305 seats or so to make it happen, rather than 290, or close to it. If.

[Torie]

Nuneaton isn't in the North.

Oh, where is it? I just assumed all the early seat calls were up north, since all them were Labour playgrounds, sans Nuneaton. Silly me.

[Torie]

So what you're saying is we still have no ing clue and just have to wait for the results? I'll be damned.

Ironically, if the LD collapse is real, but the Tory total overstated, suddenly Labor is in a much better position. Suddenly the Tories need about 305 seats or so to make it happen, rather than 290, or close to it. If.

I'm not sure it'd even have to be 'way, way' overstated.

Yes, notice I edited my post.

[Torie]

I wonder how much the Labour tanking is due to anger at the SNP, and just saying no to any chance of Labour becoming SNP lapdogs? In hindsight, Ed probably should have given the SNP a good tongue lashing. I have this feeling that Scotland will not be part of the UK for that much longer. The dynamic is just an intolerable situation for Labour, who might be tempted to tell them to just get the F out.

[Torie]

If the Lib Dems are really down to 10 and Nick Clegg is still re-elected I'm gonna be super mad.

If the LD's get but 10 seats, the odds are really, really low that Nick is one of them.

[Torie]

There are rumors that Ed Balls is defeated

That is based on some exit poll leak for this seat?

[Torie]

The Labour guy on ITV confirmed he thinks Labour is furious at the SNP, and the situation is basically intolerable, causing Labour to lose a bunch of seats in England they otherwise would have had, being squeezed by the "twin nationalisms."

[Torie]

If the election is as bad for labour as bbc predicts do you think Milliband gets canned>

Miliband gets canned if Labour doesn't form government.

I guess as an American I don't have a dog in this fight but something just seems really off about the guy

Fair enough. That's how I feel about Cameron.

Cameron seems like a stereotype of the stuffy british aristocrat

He certainly is the stereotypical Britocrat, but hardly comes across as stuffy, because his personal popularity is considerably ahead of his party's.

[Torie]

lol, apparently the ballot boxes in Ed Balls' district haven't even been opened yet, they just arrived...

I assume it's based on the exit poll. But if the UKIP vote votes Tory, he's probably done for. That is one of the things in play here - are UKIP voters voting Tory where the Tory is in the hunt, and UKIP is not, otherwise voting UKIP, draining votes from from Labour. Labour's vote in Sunderland went up because of the LD collapse, while at the same time Labour was losing votes to the UKIP, is what I strongly suspect. That is a very dangerous dynamic for Labour if that is what is going on.

[Torie]

lol, apparently the ballot boxes in Ed Balls' district haven't even been opened yet, they just arrived...

I assume it's based on the exit poll. But if the UKIP vote votes Tory, he's probably done for. That is one of the things in play here - are UKIP voters voting Tory where the Tory is in the hunt, and UKIP is not, otherwise voting UKIP, draining votes from from Labour. Labour's vote in Sunderland went up because of the LD collapse, while at the same time Labour was losing votes to the UKIP, is what I strongly suspect. That is a very dangerous dynamic for Labour if that is what is going on.

Maybe, but UKIP has been doing better than predicted in the first two seats.

Because the Tories were not in play. The LD's in this part of the country are not Tory sympathetic voters, and if the Tories are not in play, Tories feel free to vote UKIP to send a message without impact on who is in government. That is the theory, and it has to be right, if the the Exit Poll is right and the Tories end up with 316 seats or so.

[Torie]

sunderland west

lab 20,478
ukip 7321
con 7033
grn 1091
lib 993

lab +2, tory -3

What is the minus for the LD's? Your equation is meaningless without it.

[Torie]

Labour's probably going to go back to soft-focus third way bullsh[Inks] after this, aren't they?

They were hardly some radical alternative before (I find the differences between Labour and the Tories far less than between the Pubs and the Dems myself in the US at the moment). But if they got Scotland off their back, they will do just fine doing what they are doing. Scotland has crossed the Rubicon it seems to me.

[Torie]

BBC projecting a Tory gain in North East Derbyshire (?)

Well, rumours have been (such as they are) that the Tories are doing especially well in the East Midlands.

I read somewhere that the Tories were dominating with the Indian (Hindu) vote. That is particularly big in that region.

[Torie]

Stop being dense everyone. UKIP will be 'surging' everywhere as they were not treated by the electorate as a serious option last time. Decent results for them in those constituencies were expected.

The thing is, is where the Tory and the Labour vote, is close, the UKIP's who defect from the LD's and Labour, vote Tory rather than for the UKIP candidate. It's all about strategic voting. If the exit poll is right, the electorate has done that in rather massive numbers.