UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) (user search)
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  UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) (search mode)
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Author Topic: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread)  (Read 175393 times)
Filuwaúrdjan
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« on: May 07, 2015, 11:20:32 AM »

I'm quite tired now.
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Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
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Posts: 67,713
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« Reply #1 on: May 07, 2015, 11:25:01 AM »

Goddamn americans.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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Posts: 67,713
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« Reply #2 on: May 07, 2015, 12:39:00 PM »

A trot today told me that I had a smug smile. lol.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #3 on: May 07, 2015, 12:49:39 PM »

A note about rumours after the polls close: be really really careful about believing these, unless they come from a credible source. And even then don't treat as fact. A lot of false rumours get spread around early on election nights; quite why people bother I have no idea, but they do.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #4 on: May 07, 2015, 12:54:07 PM »

Though the most genuinely useful one is the Con/Lab one as movement between those parties is so small.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #5 on: May 07, 2015, 01:12:56 PM »

Oh they always know. They have to in order to request recounts (and that's another thing: parties are actually entitled to request a recount if they're on the edge of losing their deposit). After a while you learn how to read results of faces, but sometimes this can be deceptive, particularly if the winner is a right miserable bugger.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #6 on: May 07, 2015, 01:27:20 PM »

A note about rumours after the polls close: be really really careful about believing these, unless they come from a credible source. And even then don't treat as fact. A lot of false rumours get spread around early on election nights; quite why people bother I have no idea, but they do.

Wasn't there one in 2005 where the BBC picked up some rumour that the Lib Dems had won a Birmingham seat which they actually ended up not being that close in?  I remember wondering afterwards if there'd been some sort of mix up with Yardley.

Birmingham Perry Barr, yes.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #7 on: May 07, 2015, 01:31:18 PM »

I read on reddit that if parliament is "doubly hung" and a new election is necessary, then the Tories would have a huge advantage because they're basically the only party that can afford to run general election campaigns in a year. Is this true or were they being hyperbolic?

Untrue: in the event of a second election the Unions can (and indeed will) pump Labour full of cash.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #8 on: May 07, 2015, 04:08:06 PM »

Fyck. Hopefully it's wrong (as they have been in the past). Urgh.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #9 on: May 07, 2015, 04:14:19 PM »

Regarding 1992 comparisons, the exit polls were actually wrong that year. I point his out as a pedant.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #10 on: May 07, 2015, 04:20:50 PM »


It's possible: they have been wrong before and sometimes massively. Of course (alas) they are sometimes also right. We have to wait.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #11 on: May 07, 2015, 04:24:44 PM »

Nuneaton isn't in the North.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #12 on: May 07, 2015, 04:32:53 PM »

No those aren't exit poll results. They are projects based on the data from the exit poll.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #13 on: May 07, 2015, 05:23:41 PM »

Be careful about jumping to conclusions.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #14 on: May 07, 2015, 05:50:37 PM »

I would caution about taking the individual seat projections especially seriously. They might be right, but...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #15 on: May 07, 2015, 06:19:05 PM »

Stop being dense everyone. UKIP will be 'surging' everywhere as they were not treated by the electorate as a serious option last time. Decent results for them in those constituencies were expected.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #16 on: May 07, 2015, 07:42:15 PM »


I think that seat was about number 3 of the Tory held Labour targets.

No its about 38.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #17 on: May 07, 2015, 07:52:40 PM »

I hate this election.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #18 on: May 07, 2015, 09:11:47 PM »

It's all fine everyone because we've just held Easington.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #19 on: May 07, 2015, 09:18:37 PM »

As per tradition, Lab hold Jarrow.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #20 on: May 07, 2015, 09:25:24 PM »

Labour hold Rotherham
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Filuwaúrdjan
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Posts: 67,713
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« Reply #21 on: May 07, 2015, 09:47:31 PM »

Ynys Mon is held!
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Filuwaúrdjan
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Posts: 67,713
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« Reply #22 on: May 07, 2015, 11:54:39 PM »

Add the two UUP guys, who are Tories in all but name, and 8 DUP guys, who would support them, and you have it pretty safe.

Correct (ish) on the UUP, but the DUP are no friends of the Tories and will demand a price.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #23 on: May 08, 2015, 12:26:44 AM »

Poor Al. Every single Shropshire constituency went Tory.

Unfortunately the Telford constituency includes Priorslee, which means that in a bad year it will always be vulnerable. It was only barely held in 2010.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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Posts: 67,713
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« Reply #24 on: May 08, 2015, 01:23:01 AM »

Because it's really not the sort of place it used to be.
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