Labour Party leadership election 2015

[Phony Moderate]

Jim Murphy

I think Labour should choose someone who will take them back to the left - regardless who it is - as there seems to be too little of a difference between the two main parties.

I don't agree; we need Middle England to win an overall majority.

Or find a way to get turnout back up to the 70% plus range - many of the people who stopped voting after 1997 are surely working-class, traditional Labour voters who feel that there is an inadequate difference between Labour and Tories. The argument that Labour should appeal to 'Middle England' is based around the fact, presumably, that 'society has changed'. But rather than conforming to what society is, what not try to, you know, change society by offering a convincing alternative to the status quo. Labour did it in the post-war years, the Tories did it in the 1980s.

Also worth noting that most of Labour's flagship policies (dismissed as being too 'left-wing' by Blairites and the right-wing press) had the support of a majority of the country.

I have to be honest: I would rather Labour never win power again than sellout its principles for the sake of power.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Harold Wilson (as everyone here knows) once observed that "the Labour Party is a moral crusade or it is nothing" and isn't that just the truth. This isn't the 1980s and the issue isn't policy. It certainly isn't that current Labour policy is too radical and upset key sections of the electorate (people saying that are just going through the motions, frankly). There is a need to inspire people to actually turn out and to vote for the party. It really is a question of approach and presentation, I think.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Tom Watson is standing for Deputy. And Liz Kendall running for Leader is actually something that is happening.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I suspect that a lot of the names mentioned have no interest in running for anything and that there will be people who do (even if maybe only for Deputy) who's names don't appear.

[Vega]

^^
You should list Sadiq Khan. He is more likely than others on that list.

[ChrisDR68]

Harold Wilson (as everyone here knows) once observed that "the Labour Party is a moral crusade or it is nothing" and isn't that just the truth. This isn't the 1980s and the issue isn't policy. It certainly isn't that current Labour policy is too radical and upset key sections of the electorate (people saying that are just going through the motions, frankly). There is a need to inspire people to actually turn out and to vote for the party. It really is a question of approach and presentation, I think.

Agreed.

To win a parliamentary majority in the house of commons I think Labour needs two things:
 
1. The right leader
2. The right circumstances
 
In 1979 it could be argued that they had the right leader in Jim Callaghan but the circumstances were wrong due to the fallout from the Winter Of Discontent.
 
In 1992 they had the right circumstances (a deep recession with the Tories having been in power for 13 years) but the wrong leader in Neil Kinnock. Had John Smith been Labour leader in that election I suspect he would have won a tiny majority similar to Harold Wilson's in 1964.
 
Everything fell into place in 1997 with the right circumstances and a leader that was perfectly placed to take full advantange in the shape of Tony Blair.
 
Since Blair left the scene Labour's support has been stuck at around the 30% mark. It will be a monumental task for the party to win next time particularly if it's facing a potentially popular (and somewhat eccentric) Conservative leader in the guise of Boris Johnson.
 
Manifestoes and policies are important but who the party's leader is and the general circumstances of the country at the time trumps these things comfortably in my view.
 
My gut feeling right now is that it will be the general election after next (2025 or thereabouts) before Labour has a really good chance to get back into power again.

[adma]

In 1992 they had the right circumstances (a deep recession with the Tories having been in power for 13 years) but the wrong leader in Neil Kinnock.

Though Kinnock wasn't the "wrong leader" in the woeful Foot/Miliband sense.  It's more that by background and by persona, he wasn't the sort who could push back the inevitable "Old Labour" smears.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Jarvis isn't running.

[Phony Moderate]

Just read this on Wikipedia, about a potential Watson-Flint Deputy contest:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Uh, really? Really?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Considering that both are on the right of the party...

[Andrea]

^^
You should list Sadiq Khan. He is more likely than others on that list.

He drops out from Shadow Cabinet. I think to concentrate on his London mayoral bid.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Jamie Reed (Copeland) is considering standing.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Jamie Reed (Copeland) is considering standing.

Who?

[Hifly]

Jamie Reed (Copeland) is considering standing.

Who?

[Phony Moderate]

Is it me or is this starting to feel like a Republican presidential primary?

[Phony Moderate]

Umunna is in.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well that's my last preference sorted!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Simon Danczuk is considering running for Deputy.

[ChrisDR68]

Jarvis isn't running.

Heard someone say on the Daily Politics yesterday that it was Dan Jarvis that the Conservatives most feared.

That reminded me strongly of a discussion among several Tories on tv following their 1997 general election defeat. They all agreed that they feared a Denis Healey leadership in the early 80's and that Labour were sentimental and a little self indulgent to plump for Michael Foot.

The candidate that your enemy most fears is often quite instructive.     

[Filuwaúrdjan]

On the other hand if you select whoever that person is presumed to be, you can end up with Kevin Rudd.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Simon Danczuk is considering running for Deputy.

Other new possibles are Ben Bradshaw and Stella Creasy.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

John McDonnell won't be running this time. Speculation on the Left is Jon Trickett (a ShadCab member without portfolio) or Ian Lavery (former NUM President) might run.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

On the other hand if you select whoever that person is presumed to be, you can end up with Kevin Rudd.

I remember reading a comments board of National members quaking at the thought of a David Cunliffe leadership.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

On the other hand if you select whoever that person is presumed to be, you can end up with Kevin Rudd.

I remember reading a comments board of National members quaking at the thought of a David Cunliffe leadership.

Exactly.

[Phony Moderate]

My own prediction is that everyone besides Burnham and Umunna will be irrelevent. Umunna will be seen as the frontrunner until the last couple of weeks but Burnham will just pip him. Burnham will then be torn apart by the right-wing press on the basis of his accent and everyone will then blather on about how much better a leader Umunna would have been.