Labour Party leadership election 2015

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's not certain how much of a following Umunna actually has.

[Andrea]

Emma Reynolds, Jonny Reynolds and Stephen Twigg to back Umunna.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

My own prediction is that everyone besides Burnham and Umunna will be irrelevent. Umunna will be seen as the frontrunner until the last couple of weeks but Burnham will just pip him. Burnham will then be torn apart by the right-wing press on the basis of his accent and everyone will then blather on about how much better a leader Umunna would have been.

What's Burnham sound like?

[Phony Moderate]

My own prediction is that everyone besides Burnham and Umunna will be irrelevent. Umunna will be seen as the frontrunner until the last couple of weeks but Burnham will just pip him. Burnham will then be torn apart by the right-wing press on the basis of his accent and everyone will then blather on about how much better a leader Umunna would have been.

What's Burnham sound like?

Both Northern and working-class. Wilson was the former but not the latter, Callaghan was the latter but not the former (he spoke in a mild Cockney accent).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Timetable agreed...

The election formally begins on the 15th of May (i.e. this Friday). PLP nominations will open on the 9th of June and close on the 15th (17th for Deputy). Nominations from Affiliates will close on the 31st of July. If you want to have a vote, then you have to be a member, a registered supporter, or a registered affiliate supporter by the 12th of August. Ballots will be posted to all eligible voters on the 14th of August and the deadline for sending them back will be the 10th of September. Results will be announced at a Special Conference on the 12th of September.

[Hifly]

"Registered Supporter"?!? What the hell is that?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's that cut-price demi-membership idea that has never really taken off. But now it extends to members of affiliates; the TU dominated NEC has pretty clearly gone for a long electoral timetable in order to get their members registered so that they can vote.

[Hifly]

So effectively this can turn into our equivalent of the UMP's primary.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's so that there could be OMOV without cutting out the Affiliate element.

[Hifly]

Every man and his dog can sign up as a "Registered Supporter" for no cost by clicking this link:

http://support.labour.org.uk/

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Correct. Although everything is then checked against the Electoral Register (thank God).

[Phony Moderate]

Burnham now in. Seems to be making a similar pitch to the other two but with a traditionalist edge to it.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/andy-burnham-labour-leader-bid-5692649

[joevsimp]

My own prediction is that everyone besides Burnham and Umunna will be irrelevent. Umunna will be seen as the frontrunner until the last couple of weeks but Burnham will just pip him. Burnham will then be torn apart by the right-wing press on the basis of his accent and everyone will then blather on about how much better a leader Umunna would have been.

What's Burnham sound like?

Both Northern and working-class. Wilson was the former but not the latter, Callaghan was the latter but not the former (he spoke in a mild Cockney accent).

I didn't know that, in fact I don't think I'd ever heard Big Jim's voice before, interestingly John Cruddas is similarly accented and similarly from Portsmouth (probably won't run though)

I just looked up a couple of clips, including election night in 1979, has Callaghan ever been played by Jim Broadbent?

Given that Labour haven't had a northern leader, beside Scots, since Wilson, I think they could do with one

[Famous Mortimer]

Burnham did terrible in the last leadership election, I don't know why it would be different this time.

[Lief 🗽]

Burnham now in. Seems to be making a similar pitch to the other two but with a traditionalist edge to it.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/andy-burnham-labour-leader-bid-5692649

unfortunately, mega-babe Gloria De Piero seems to be crushing him in the Mirror reader's poll.

[Phony Moderate]

Why it should not be Umunna

Highlight:

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[Filuwaúrdjan]

One imagines that the Honourable Member for Streatham's issues in that department will be raised by opposing campaigns.

Burnham did terrible in the last leadership election, I don't know why it would be different this time.

At that time Burnham was not a major figure in the Party; he was mostly running to get his name out there. Things are a little different now; it is, for instance, rumoured that he already has twice the number of MPs needed to qualify for the ballot pledged to support him. Even if that's not actually true, that it sounds plausible (and it does) is telling in itself.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Cooper has also declared. Lavery is starting to sound as if he's seriously considering it.

[ChrisDR68]

My own prediction is that everyone besides Burnham and Umunna will be irrelevent. Umunna will be seen as the frontrunner until the last couple of weeks but Burnham will just pip him. Burnham will then be torn apart by the right-wing press on the basis of his accent and everyone will then blather on about how much better a leader Umunna would have been.

Where are most of Labour's target seats?

I think Burnham will be more popular with voters in Scotland, Wales, the north and the midlands while Umunna will be more popular in London and southern England.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Lavery has decided against running and is instead backing Burnham. If this is an early sign of Left rallying around Burnham then this is potentially very, very good news for his candidacy.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Where are most of Labour's target seats?

I think those two words are currently banned and five years is a long time indeed, but there are far more potentials for gains north of the Severn/Wash line than south of it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And Mary Creagh is in.

[Beet]

So how many registered supporters are there expected to be?

How are runoffs handled?

How will campaigning occur? Will there be rallies and such?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Another possibility not mentioned on the thread so far would be Owen Smith (Shadow Welsh Secretary). He's on the Left so Lavery not running might increase his chances of getting nominations were he to try.

So how many registered supporters are there expected to be?

Depends on how much effort the various Unions put into signing people up.

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No runoffs; the vote is IRV.

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There will be a long schedule of public meetings and debates throughout the summer.

[Beet]

Thanks.