Labour Party leadership election 2015

[Blair]

Word on the labour grapevine is that the poll is bullsh**t-it's been created by looking at CLP nominations (which are often wrong-2010 should have been 70% for David Miliband on this basis) There's been talk for days about how 'New Labour camp' will try and shake off Corbyn.

This is why you shouldn't open elections up

http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/jul/15/daily-telegraph-labour-party-jeremy-corbyn

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Incidentally if Corbyn were to win then his age would not be an issue as it is very clear that he has no intention of actually leading Labour into an election. He would likely make certain structural changes and hand over as quickly as possible to someone on the Left - and that can be 'safely' asserted because if Corbyn wins it would be a pretty clear sign of Left dominance within the membership - who's younger than him.

[Phony Moderate]

John Cryer (the youngest member of the SCG) would be a strong contender in that scenario.

[Blair]

Incidentally if Corbyn were to win then his age would not be an issue as it is very clear that he has no intention of actually leading Labour into an election. He would likely make certain structural changes and hand over as quickly as possible to someone on the Left - and that can be 'safely' asserted because if Corbyn wins it would be a pretty clear sign of Left dominance within the membership - who's younger than him.

His team have said that he'd resign in 2018 along with Cameron, and as you say let a left wing choice in. As much as his age and issues are a problem the fact is that 50% of Labour is still at heart New Labour

[Silent Hunter]

And by 2018 the damage will have been done as much of the Labour Right would have left the party.

[Simfan34]

And by 2018 the damage will have been done as much of the Labour Right would have left the party.

An unexpected Lib Dem revival?

[ChrisDR68]

And by 2018 the damage will have been done as much of the Labour Right would have left the party.

I actually doubt a repeat of 1980/81 would happen in this scenario. Right wing Labour MP's are probably as pessimistic as I am about the party's chances in 2020 no matter who wins this leadership election so they're likely to simply sit tight, wait for the expected defeat and then hopefully help vote in a more credible candidate (one who actually looks like a realistic potential prime minister) in the leadership election that followed.

[Phony Moderate]

But what counts as a defeat/victory next time exactly? Labour only need to gain 30-40 seats to potentially have the numbers to form some kind of government. If the Tories lose even 20-25 then it might be a challenge for them to stay, especially given that the (presumably Farron-led) Lib Dems will be reluctant at best to enter into any agreement with them.

[YL]

Incidentally if Corbyn were to win then his age would not be an issue as it is very clear that he has no intention of actually leading Labour into an election. He would likely make certain structural changes and hand over as quickly as possible to someone on the Left - and that can be 'safely' asserted because if Corbyn wins it would be a pretty clear sign of Left dominance within the membership - who's younger than him.

Any suggestions -- other than John Cryer -- for who that might be?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Considering that such a Left figure would have to be very Left, I was in fact thinking pretty much exclusively of Cryer...

...of course it's also possible that a Corbyn leadership would end prematurely in a less comfortable way (there is a precedent, as all Labour history nerds know) in which case whatever would happen next would be very different.

Still, we're getting a looooooong way ahead of ourselves here.

[Silent Hunter]

But what counts as a defeat/victory next time exactly? Labour only need to gain 30-40 seats to potentially have the numbers to form some kind of government. If the Tories lose even 20-25 then it might be a challenge for them to stay, especially given that the (presumably Farron-led) Lib Dems will be reluctant at best to enter into any agreement with them.

They actually have to *gain* the seats first. By no means a certainty.

[Blair]

The problem is that Ed only had to fight the Blairites in a sense (they played pretty nicely for 5 years) The entire New Labour wing of the Party (makes up 75-80% of the CLP) would revolt against Corbyn, his shadow Cabinet would have to include some of the worst that labour has to offer.

The only good thing would be watching Labour getting crushed in an early election (repeal fixed term first) and seeing all the left wingers who 'want a real socialist working class labour party not torylite scum' watch as the Labour lose.

Why are we fighting the battles of the 1980's again?

[Phony Moderate]

A 'New Labour' revolt in the event of Corbyn victory (assuming it would be based upon the fact that Corbyn won) would surely show to the party and to the public their hatred of democracy. The same would be true of the Left if they were to react that way to Kendall victory, though it is worth noting that the likes of Benn, Corbyn and Skinner didn't choose to form their own party in 1994, or even whine that much, frankly. Blair was brought down not by the Left but by the Brownite Right. 

[Blair]

A 'New Labour' revolt in the event of Corbyn victory (assuming it would be based upon the fact that Corbyn won) would surely show to the party and to the public their hatred of democracy. The same would be true of the Left if they were to react that way to Kendall victory, though it is worth noting that the likes of Benn, Corbyn and Skinner didn't choose to form their own party in 1994, or even whine that much, frankly. Blair was brought down not by the Left but by the Brownite Right. 

I don't even have a problem with Corbyn. I'm just sick of the over-zealous facebook comments about people who think him winning would turn Britain into some sort of political paradise

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyway, a bunch of new supporting nominations tonight: will update the map tomorrow. Kendall picked up some big London CLPs (including all three in Southwark) which may be notable or may just reflect the fact that factional lines are unusually stark in the capital.

Thing to note, and I might as well at this point as any other, is that the people who turn up to CLP meetings are not necessarily that reflective of the overall membership of the CLP: as such there will be a lot of CLPs that end up voting differently to their supporting nomination.

[Blair]

Anyway, a bunch of new supporting nominations tonight: will update the map tomorrow. Kendall picked up some big London CLPs (including all three in Southwark) which may be notable or may just reflect the fact that factional lines are unusually stark in the capital.

Thing to note, and I might as well at this point as any other, is that the people who turn up to CLP meetings are not necessarily that reflective of the overall membership of the CLP: as such there will be a lot of CLPs that end up voting differently to their supporting nomination.

My CLP had the MP, and all the party brass supporting Kendall. 5 new trade unionists spoke up to speak for Corbyn who beat Kendall by 5 votes-about as divided as you get

[Famous Mortimer]

Is Kendall getting a bump? I thought she was the least likely to win of all the candidates.

[Blair]

Is Kendall getting a bump? I thought she was the least likely to win of all the candidates.

She's got 10 CLP's, which doubled from 5 on wednesday night. The common view is that her campaign has been the worst run-she's got a pretty unpopular cast running it. She's most likely to come 4th-which shows how much progress/the right wing of the party has declined in the last 10 years.

[Famous Mortimer]

Yeah, that's what I thought. I would figure by this point even the right would be abandoning her and backing Lady Balls as a more realistic candidate to stop the left.

[YL]

Is Kendall getting a bump? I thought she was the least likely to win of all the candidates.

She's got 10 CLP's, which doubled from 5 on wednesday night. The common view is that her campaign has been the worst run-she's got a pretty unpopular cast running it. She's most likely to come 4th-which shows how much progress/the right wing of the party has declined in the last 10 years.

I think the way that she started off by basically saying that Labour was wrong and the Tories were right on a whole range of issues didn't exactly help her.

(OK, I'm slightly exaggerating, but it did come across a bit that way.)

[ChrisDR68]

Yeah, that's what I thought. I would figure by this point even the right would be abandoning her and backing Lady Balls as a more realistic candidate to stop the left.

I'd be happy if that happened.

Labour has an outside chance (a very outside chance) of forcing a hung parliament with Yvette as leader. She comes across as a less tribal politician than Andy Burnham which could play well with floating voters.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Yeah, that's what I thought. I would figure by this point even the right would be abandoning her and backing Lady Balls as a more realistic candidate to stop the left.

I'd be happy if that happened.

Labour has an outside chance (a very outside chance) of forcing a hung parliament with Yvette as leader. She comes across as a less tribal politician than Andy Burnham which could play well with floating voters.

You aren't half a pessimist, hey remember we don't know what Tory goon will be up in 2020!

The worry about Cooper is that the stench of balls might linger on her. Balls is just not a popular guy (it's probably better in the long run that he lost his seat).

[Oakvale]

I haven't really been following this, a... are we actually talking about a Corbyn leadership as if it's a realistic possibility?

[YL]

I haven't really been following this, a... are we actually talking about a Corbyn leadership as if it's a realistic possibility?

Some leaked poll suggested that it might be, but note the words "leaked poll".

As the election is conducted by AV, I think transfers ought to doom him even if he wins on first preferences, unless the final count is somehow between him and Kendall (which doesn't seem likely).

[Silent Hunter]

I haven't really been following this, a... are we actually talking about a Corbyn leadership as if it's a realistic possibility?

Some leaked poll suggested that it might be, but note the words "leaked poll".

The Burnham campaign questioned whether there was even a poll.