Labour Party leadership election 2015

[Blair]

at least Dianne Abbot isn't our candidate for mayor

[Oakvale]

Many in the Corbyn campaign have argued that a new winning coalition can be formed of radicals in Scotland, former Green voters, disillusioned Ukip voters and those who otherwise do not vote.

Is this real? Do they actually think this? Jesus christ.

It's very seductive to imagine that you don't need nasty Tory voters to win an election.

[ChrisDR68]

Many in the Corbyn campaign have argued that a new winning coalition can be formed of radicals in Scotland, former Green voters, disillusioned Ukip voters and those who otherwise do not vote.

Is this real? Do they actually think this? Jesus christ.

It's very seductive to imagine that you don't need nasty Tory voters to win an election.

That was idiot Ed's strategy from 2010-2015.

[Blair]

Many in the Corbyn campaign have argued that a new winning coalition can be formed of radicals in Scotland, former Green voters, disillusioned Ukip voters and those who otherwise do not vote.

Is this real? Do they actually think this? Jesus christ.

It's very seductive to imagine that you don't need nasty Tory voters to win an election.

That was idiot Ed's strategy from 2010-2015.

At least Ed's strategy relied on getting ex lib dems to vote Labour, which looked good considering they tend to be less loyal and in fit into labour's demographic.

[The Other Castro]

Corbyn will not be the next Labour leader.

Doing a Keystone Phil are we?

Anyway, the bookies are going to take a hammering whoever has won. Corbyn is now as short as 1/16 having been as long as 200/1 just a few months ago. Presumably a fair few have placed bets on Burnham and Cooper on the basis that "it can't possibly happen, can it?".

Somebody has to

[Silent Hunter]

Well, we can't say we weren't warned if this all goes Pete Tong.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why is Burnham polling so low? I assumed he'd end up being Corbyn's main opponent. He's probably the best choice to keep the party together.

Well we don't know what's actually happened yet, but Burnham has run a very nervy campaign (that has also felt pretty subdued at times) and his attempt to be a basically crossfactional candidate has not been... er... let us say that he's not done that as well as Khan did for the Mayoral selection. He can be a much stronger performer than he has been over the past few months so its all kind of disappointing.

[Hnv1]

Still certain Corbyn is not winning this (probably win the first round), considering the recent shift in momentom I'll change my prediction from a Burnham victory to a Cooper one

[Blair]

Why is Burnham polling so low? I assumed he'd end up being Corbyn's main opponent. He's probably the best choice to keep the party together.

Well we don't know what's actually happened yet, but Burnham has run a very nervy campaign (that has also felt pretty subdued at times) and his attempt to be a basically crossfactional candidate has not been... er... let us say that he's not done that as well as Khan did for the Mayoral selection. He can be a much stronger performer than he has been over the past few months so its all kind of disappointing.

His whole campaign was based on him being the most 'left wing', and as you said doing a Sadiq were he has union support but is still moderate. It's ashame because for the last year he was suppose to be the grassroots champion who as a working class northern lad could lead the party.

[Phony Moderate]

Still certain Corbyn is not winning this

Not the view of most Labour MPs and journalists.

I'm still not certain but I'd rate it as an 80% probability that Corbyn wins; before the London announcement today it was more like 70%.

[Hnv1]

Still certain Corbyn is not winning this

Not the view of most Labour MPs and journalists.

I'm still not certain but I'd rate it as an 80% probability that Corbyn wins; before the London announcement today it was more like 70%.

True. but this was the year of scare politics. Labour establishment are doing what Cameron (and here Bibi) did scare the voters out to rally around them. In addition, the far left always create a lot of fuss on the Internet with bored journalists picking it up to create a story (like a corbyn CLP nomination victory where only 25 people voted...).

I placed a bet on Cooper yesterday and I anticipate I'm gonna cash in on this

[Phony Moderate]

He won (as you probably know) the most CLP nominations (by a fair distance) though, with varying numbers of members; it wasn't just the odd freak occurance. It is harder to 'scare' people in internal elections anyway; the future of the country isn't at stake, merely the party.

[Phony Moderate]

To add to that, despite this being a big selectorate, much or most of it is still likely to be comprised of political junkies; political junkies are more likely to have firm beliefs and allegiances than the general population and are less likely to be swayed. This forum is a good example of that actually; Hillary Clinton has been receiving very negative coverage recently over the email scandal and yet her hardcore supporters on this forum are still fully behind her; if anything, they are more supportive of her (a 'rally around the flag' effect if you like). Sure, it is quite likely that some of Corbyn's softer supporters have switched to Burnham or Cooper in recent weeks, but enough to prevent him from winning? Unlikely imo.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Again, I have half a suspicion (and it is totally uninformed) that this might be one of those weird situations where he either wins by a lot or loses narrowly. A lot of people with conflicting feelings making a lot of individual decisions: I tend to think that they will mostly have turned out to have broken the same way, whatever that is.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm gonna make a few enemies among fellow leftists, but I really hope Corbyn doesn't win. Labour needs to win elections, I don't want the UK to fall back into the Thatcher-Major horror. And Corbyn won't lead Labour to victory - not because he's very left-wing, but because he's the wrong kind of left-wing.

[Phony Moderate]

I honestly think that many in the party's establishment view a Corbyn victory as the least-worst outcome now, hoping that he will eff up to the extent that he can be replaced with Dan Jarvis or whoever a couple of years down the line.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I honestly think that many in the party's establishment view a Corbyn victory as the least-worst outcome now, hoping that he will eff up to the extent that he can be replaced with Dan Jarvis or whoever a couple of years down the line.

Where does Jarvis stand in the party? Is he significantly to the right of someone like Burnham in his policies?

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

I honestly think that many in the party's establishment view a Corbyn victory as the least-worst outcome now, hoping that he will eff up to the extent that he can be replaced with Dan Jarvis or whoever a couple of years down the line.

Where does Jarvis stand in the party? Is he significantly to the right of someone like Burnham in his policies?

I'm not British so British posters should feel free to correct me but my understanding is that Jarvis is essentially on the leftward edge of the right wing of Labour.

[YL]

I'd like the result to be decisive enough so that the loser can't credibly complain about "purges"/infiltration (delete as appropriate according to who wins).  Unfortunately, though, complaints not being credible won't stop them being made or the media lapping them up.

Beyond that, I voted for Cooper so obviously my preference is that she wins.

[You kip if you want to...]

This must be devastating for Burnham. He was the working class, NHS loving, hardworking darling of the grassroots until about 3 months ago.

[Phony Moderate]

We have a turnout figure: 76.3%/around 423,000. London's was about that IIRC.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

I have a little bit off topic question to the UK posters:

Is there any official reason why Labour Party changed its logo from that cool old one to the generic social democratic rose?

I mean from this one:
http://i.imgur.com/RbrgKZ9.png

To the current.

[Blair]

I don't even recognize the old logo, but my labour party history knowledge is appalling.

On Dan Jarvis, funnily enough I spoke to him on Wednesday at a Burnham event and he seems like a decent bloke on top of his background.

The big problem for him is that he could get offered something by Corbyn-probably shadow Justice, home Secretary etc if he takes it then it ruins his leadership chances (Tories are trying to tar all labour frontbench with the red brush) if he refuses then the Corbynites will never support him. He seems to be in the same position Chukka was in back in 2010-on the compass wing offically but moving more to the right-the progress crowd loved him and were trying to get him to run.

[YL]

BBC reporting speculation that Corbyn may have won on the first count.

(Key word: "speculation".)

[afleitch]

I have a little bit off topic question to the UK posters:

Is there any official reason why Labour Party changed its logo from that cool old one to the generic social democratic rose?

I mean from this one:
http://i.imgur.com/RbrgKZ9.png

To the current.

Because it's not really a logo. Remember, prior to the 70's parties didn't have universal logos or even agreed colour schemes (and in some constituencies, names)