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Author Topic: UK Post-Election Analysis  (Read 11602 times)
MaxQue
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« Reply #50 on: May 17, 2015, 02:34:07 PM »

If David Milibrand, we would be having a discussion on how Labour choose the wrong brother.

No matter who had won, it would have been the "wrong" brother.
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Blair
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« Reply #51 on: May 17, 2015, 03:04:16 PM »

Complete bollocks about David Miliband, the only people who generally say they prefer him are Tories. It's the same as me saying that Michael Portillo should have been tory leader. If you want 5 points why David M sucks here it is...

1)Seen as much more of a soulless, vain career politician. Anyone remember his 2008 coup attempt that he pulled out of at the last minute. Many saw him as Blair's Crown Prince who treated 2010 much like HRC treated 2008. He assumed the party would bow down to him because he waited in 2008.

2)He was shamelessly new labour, and didn't have plans to tackle tuition fees, housing or inequality. For all Ed's faults he was a champion for students/disposed in society.

3)He would have voted for Syria Air Strikes in 2013, when over 80% of the public were flat out opposed. We didn't want, or need to attack Assad. Most likely would have lead to either ISIL gaining whole of syria or another standoff with Russia/Iran.

4)He had all the authoritarian New Labour stuff-ID cards, drug laws, 42 detention period, GITMO. It was the worst part of New Labour, and he stood by it all.

5)He lacked a heart. Ed, was by far the boldest, most daring leader of the opposition that we ever had. Standing up to Murdoch, voting against Syria, voting for a Palestinian state, opposing an EU referendum and cutting fees to 6,000. 
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adma
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« Reply #52 on: May 17, 2015, 07:20:59 PM »

A good comparison is the Canadian Liberal Party. Sure Dion and Iggy were viewed as bad 'leaders' in the eye of the public, but it's clear the party's issues stem far deeper than the public presentation, which is why even when that face became sexier and younger; people are still turning from the Liberal Party.

Actually, the more  I think of it, the deeper Canadian-party-leader comparison point to Ed Miliband is the PCs' forever-woefully-awkward Joe Clark--even if he actually won in 1979.  (But then again, Cameron didn't inspire the same loathing as PET did in 1979.)
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #53 on: May 18, 2015, 04:01:00 AM »

This was my final forecast map


and here is what actually happened
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #54 on: May 18, 2015, 01:22:09 PM »

Where did the vote from 2010 go?

https://medium.com/@alex_randall/three-questions-about-who-stole-votes-from-who-in-the-2015-election-51714d9ea3a1
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jaichind
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« Reply #55 on: May 18, 2015, 01:44:05 PM »


http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Has their own version.  This site seems to have a higher LD->UKIP flow than the one you posted.  Also there is the issue of "if 26% of the 2010 LD vote went to the Greens then would not that leave Greens with too many votes in 2015."
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YL
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« Reply #56 on: May 18, 2015, 03:00:41 PM »


http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Has their own version.  This site seems to have a higher LD->UKIP flow than the one you posted.  Also there is the issue of "if 26% of the 2010 LD vote went to the Greens then would not that leave Greens with too many votes in 2015."

Yes, the first set of numbers are obviously wrong, for that reason.  If the Greens got 26% of 2010 Lib Dems and that only made up half of their 2015 voters, they'd have got about 12% of the vote.

Baxter's (i.e. Electoral Calculus) numbers are much more plausible, though we'll never know for sure.
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #57 on: May 18, 2015, 05:26:57 PM »
« Edited: May 18, 2015, 06:04:21 PM by ChrisDR68 »

If David Milibrand, we would be having a discussion on how Labour choose the wrong brother.

No matter who had won, it would have been the "wrong" brother.

As I've said before it's a matter of personal judgement.

David Miliband is no Tony Blair for sure. Political geniuses like him don't come around very often but David had an aura of competence that Ed signally lacked which made him electable in the eyes of the public.

In my view the result of the Labour leadership election of 2010 is a strategic error of enormous importance because I don't see a realistic potential prime minister in the current contenders for the job.

That means Labour are very, very likely to lose the next general election in 2020.

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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #58 on: May 26, 2015, 02:55:13 PM »

Jesus Christ, that was sad.
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politicus
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« Reply #59 on: July 18, 2015, 05:30:44 AM »
« Edited: July 18, 2015, 05:42:28 AM by Zionist Scum »

It seems the Unionists did better than expected in NI?




http://www.ark.ac.uk/elections/
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Blair
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« Reply #60 on: July 18, 2015, 07:34:48 AM »

If David Milibrand, we would be having a discussion on how Labour choose the wrong brother.

No matter who had won, it would have been the "wrong" brother.

As I've said before it's a matter of personal judgement.

David Miliband is no Tony Blair for sure. Political geniuses like him don't come around very often but David had an aura of competence that Ed signally lacked which made him electable in the eyes of the public.

In my view the result of the Labour leadership election of 2010 is a strategic error of enormous importance because I don't see a realistic potential prime minister in the current contenders for the job.



His competence is largely a mixed bag-he was a good thinker (like Ed) but his constant differing from 2007-2010 about the leadership and his awful coup attempt in summer '08 showed he lacked the political skills. As I said above David may have looked like a PM in waiting but that didn't cover up his wooden detachment
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #61 on: July 18, 2015, 12:13:19 PM »

His competence is largely a mixed bag-he was a good thinker (like Ed) but his constant differing from 2007-2010 about the leadership and his awful coup attempt in summer '08 showed he lacked the political skills. As I said above David may have looked like a PM in waiting but that didn't cover up his wooden detachment

Absolutely agree that David Miliband came across as wooden.

He would though in my view have had a reassuring effect on the naturally cautious UK electorate. The voters of this country are generally anxious and suspicious about potentially electing a Labour government.

Even though Labour has won 9 general elections since the war only 3 of it's leaders have managed to win an overall majority in the house of commons - Attlee, Wilson and Blair. All three were very reassuring characters in their different ways.

There are two big what if's of recent UK political history:

1. Could Labour have held onto those extra 20-30 seats in the 2010 general election to have been able to stay in power had David Miliband challenged and beaten Gordon Brown in 2008?

2. Could the party have gained another 40+ seats from the Conservatives in 2015 (despite concerns about possible SNP influence) had David Miliband won the leadership in 2010 that would have enabled either a Labour led minority government or a centre left coalition from taking office?
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Dan the Roman
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« Reply #62 on: July 18, 2015, 12:33:33 PM »

Just as possible that a David Miliband leadership would have given greater teeth to Cleggmentum and the Liberal Dem claims on the left in 2010, while speeding up the collapse in Scotland
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #63 on: July 18, 2015, 12:45:37 PM »

Brown kept his job until the 2010 GE in part due to the fact that he towered over every single member of his cabinets in political statue and heavyweightiness. Well, with the possible exception of Mandelson anyway.
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You kip if you want to...
change08
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« Reply #64 on: July 18, 2015, 04:51:29 PM »

I should remind people that it was David who was seen as the weird brother and it was Ed who 'spoke human', this time 5 years ago...

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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #65 on: July 19, 2015, 05:49:02 AM »

I should remind people that it was David who was seen as the weird brother and it was Ed who 'spoke human', this time 5 years ago...

Do you mean David was seen as the weird brother within the Labour Party?

I don't think the evidence is there that the public thought that way.

Here's an excerpt from this article:

Barnard and Braggins, who now run a company, BBM Campaigns, which conducts political and business campaigns, held 90-minute focus group sessions in May and June with separate groups of men and women chosen because of their previous loyalty to Labour. In all five seats – Halesowen and Rowley Regis, Croydon Central, Southampton Itchen, Watford and Pudsey – the Tories won, as the surges in support Labour had anticipated failed to materialise. The focus groups gave savage assessments of Labour, which they said lacked economic credibility, and Ed Miliband, who they saw as unfit to lead the country – so much so they believed he had permanently damaged the party’s brand.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jul/18/labour-party-voters-desertion-election 

The rest of this article is also an interesting read although I think it's tone is generally overly pessimistic.   
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