UK General Discussion Thread: mayy lmao

[Clyde1998]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-32849065

Related to the collation government - by-election in Orkney & Shetland?

[Clyde1998]

It's not really a resign-your-seat matter (i.e. as it was just the leaking of eighth hand gossip and not even a proper smear or anything), even if it would most certainly be a resign-your-ministerial-post matter (i.e. because he was amateurish enough to caught caught. Christ, he was amateurish enough to get as good as caught by logical deduction even before the inquiry reported).

He denied that he was the source of the leak - leading to a £1.4m investigation, to find that he was the source of the leak. I wonder if he would've been elected if he'd said he leaked it before the election - his majority is only 800(ish).

I think he should resign from his seat - it was a confidential memo that was leaked.

I think the people of the Northern Isles should be able to recall him, should they feel it appropriate.

So she did say it then. Nicola Clegg?

It's unclear if she did - both the French consul-general and Sturgeon say the memo wasn't accurate. The consul-general believes that it's been lost in translation.

[Clyde1998]

A group of people from Orkney and Shetland going to court over the issue - to try and get the election result overturned.

https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/the-people-versus-carmichael#/story

[Clyde1998]

On what basis?

Breach of election rules:

"4.42 - It is an illegal practice to make or publish a false statement of fact about the personal character or conduct of a candidate in order to affect the return of a candidate at an election."

"4.43 - If a candidate is elected and then an election court finds them or their election agent guilty under this provision, their election shall be void."

"4.44 - Election campaign material is also subject to general restrictions of the civil law. Election material that constitutes libel is liable to legal action."

[Clyde1998]

Yeah, that's ... tenuous. Haven't the SNP's online lynch mobs got anything better to do?

They're not SNP supporters, but they are people living in Orkney and Shetland.

It'll be interesting to see what happens though. Especially, if they win the case...

[Clyde1998]

hahaha

[Clyde1998]

hahaha

Photoshop?

I think it is, but maybe @AngrySalmond has turned up. He's wearing the correct colour tie...

[Clyde1998]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-32930488

Carmichael petition has been "lodged at the Court of Session in Edinburgh in the name of four [Northern] islanders."

[Clyde1998]

YouGov have finally worked up the nerve to publish a new VI poll: Con 41, Lab 30, UKIP 13, Lib Dems 7, Greens 4

Seems that UKIP's very public 'issues' since the election haven't harmed them much.

There seems to be quite large movement in the Scotland sub-samples - although we won't know if this is an actual shift or just sub-sample errors until the first full scale Scotland poll.

YouGov/Scotland Sub-sample:
SNP - 56% (+6%)
Lab - 20% (-4%)
Con - 15% (N/C)
Lib - 5% (-3%)
Ukip - 3% (+1%)
Grn - 1% (N/C)

[Clyde1998]

EVEL passes; Scots, Welsh & NI MPs votes restricted - the union is dead.

[Clyde1998]

Why can't England or English EU regions just have their own provincial parliament(s)?

I would support the latter, but the former is an utterly ridiculous idea. Areas that make up more than 80% of a country's population don't need autonomy.

Agreed - I would much prefer regional assemblies across England. Sadly, the North East rejected it in 2004 and it's been forgotten about (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_England_devolution_referendums,_2004).

I should point out that that No vote was smaller than in the Wales devolution vote in 1979.

[Clyde1998]

http://www.economist.com/blogs/bagehot/2015/10/another-crack-union

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This is an interesting point - the main reason why the UK has survived so far is that English national identity wasn't that strong. British national identity was much stronger in the past - holding the country together - and it's fading away.

[Clyde1998]

Russia was only 51% of the USSR? Wow, I expected a much higher figure.

The USSR was a union of around 15 countries - which might explain why it feels much higher.

[Clyde1998]

Perhaps a better comparison would have been Prussia in Weimar Germany.

Even that was only 62% - but I think the article was looking at more modern examples. Serbia and Montenegro would be the most modern, though, with around 90% of the population being in Serbia.

[Clyde1998]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This is an interesting point - the main reason why the UK has survived so far is that English national identity wasn't that strong. British national identity was much stronger in the past - holding the country together - and it's fading away.

If English nationalism is on the rise it's probably in part a reaction against the perceived rise in Scottish nationalism north of the border. England itself (in my view anyway) doesn't feel like an especially homogeneous place with the south feeling very different to the north both politically and culturally with the midlands sitting rather uncomfortably inbetween the two.

I live in the South of England - it's pretty clear that people down here don't understand Scotland or the North of England very well. If feel that politics and culture in the UK is centred around the South and particularly London - which may explain the divide.

[Clyde1998]

Has their even been a detailed study on self-description as British vs English? I for one would describe myself as British before English, because of Welsh roots and the word English conveys ... Something more negative than "British" in my mind.

2011 UK Census (England Data):
English Only - 32,007,983
British Only - 10,171,834
Eng/Brit Joint - 4,820,818

[Clyde1998]

Lots of hypocrisy being displayed by the left on this, I notice.

I'm still siding with abolishing the house - but I'm glad they opposed this.

The Lords is comprised of:
249 - Conservatives
212 - Labour
176 - Crossbenchers
112 - Lib Dems
30 - Non-affiliated
25 - "Lords Spiritual"
4 - DUP
3 - UKIP
2 - Plaid Cymru
2 - UUP
1 - Green

Which obviously reflects public opinion in the UK...

[Clyde1998]

UK Poll of Polls:
I'll update this regularly to reflect new opinion polls:

General Election Poll of Polls:
Con - 38% (N/C)
Lab - 32% (+1%)
UKIP - 14% (+1%)
Lib - 7% (-1%)
SNP - 5% (N/C)
Grn - 3% (-1%)

Average is based on the average from the most recent poll from ComRes, ICM, Ipsos Mori, Opinium, Survation and YouGov. Changes are compared to 2015 Election. Only polls from within the last three months are counted.

UK Referendum on EU Poll of Polls:
Remain - 46%
Leave - 39%

Average is based on the average from the most recent poll, asking the referendum question, from ComRes, ICM, Ipsos Mori, Survation and YouGov. Opinium are yet to poll on the referendum question. Only polls from within the last three months are counted.

Scottish Independence Poll of Polls:
Yes - 47%
No - 46%

Average is based on the average from the most recent poll from Ipsos Mori, Panelbase, Survation, TNS and YouGov. ICM have not polled recently. Only polls from within the last three months are counted.

Scottish General Election Poll of Polls:
Constituency:
SNP - 54% (+9%)
Lab - 21% (-11%)
Con - 14% (N/C)
Lib - 6% (-2%)

Regional:
SNP - 47% (+3%)
Lab - 21% (-5%)
Con - 14% (+2%)
Grn - 8% (+4%)
Lib - 6% (+1%)
UKIP - 3% (+2%)
SSP - 1% (+1%)

Average is based on the average from the most recent poll from Ipsos Mori, Panelbase, Survation, TNS and YouGov. ICM have not polled recently. Only polls from within the last three months are counted. Changes are compared to 2011 Election. Note - some polls don't prompt for the Scottish Socialist Party (now part of RISE - Scotland's Left Alliance).

Welsh General Election Poll of Polls:
Constituency:
Lab - 39% (-3%)
Con - 23% (-2%)
Plaid - 18% (-1%)
UKIP - 13% (+13%)
Lib - 6% (-4%)

Regional:
Lab - 34% (-3%)
Con - 24% (+1%)
Plaid - 18% (N/C)
UKIP - 13% (+9%)
Lib - 6% (-3%)
Grn - 4% (+1%)

Based on the most recent YouGov poll - as they're the only pollster to poll Welsh elections. Changes are compared to 2011 Election.

[Clyde1998]

Education is so poor, in Scotland, under SNP rule - that Labour can't even spell words correctly in their PPB...

[Clyde1998]

I think he should just cross the floor.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tristram-hunt-tells-oxbridge-labour-students-that-the-top-1-per-cent-must-take-leadership-in-labour-a6717731.html

[Clyde1998]

The Alistair Carmichael case is ongoing.

For those who haven't been following it, here's a few news stories regarding it:

• BBC: Alistair Carmichael admits trying to mislead leaked memo investigation
  
• Daily Record: Alistair Carmichael tells court of 'enormous regret' over involvement in Nicola Sturgeon memo leak
  
• Guardian: Alistair Carmichael 'leaked Sturgeon memo thinking it was true'
  
• Scotsman: Carmichael: I wasn’t fully truthful over leaked memo
  
• STV: Election Court told Alistair Carmichael 'is not a reliable witness'
  

[Clyde1998]

Tories with a 15pt lead with ComRes, the highest in any poll since January 2010 I think.

Con - 42% (NC)
Lab - 27% (-2)
UKIP - 15% (+2)
LD - 7% (NC)       
SNP - 5% (NC)
Green - 3% (NC)
Other - 1% (NC)

[Clyde1998]

ComRes Data

There are no circumstances under which British troops should be sent to fight a ground war against ISIS
Agree - 25%
Disagree - 52%
Only Green voters support this statement

Killing British citizens in Syria is justified if the security services say they have joined ISIS
Agree - 65%
Disagree - 15%

The UK should take part in air strikes against ISIS, even if they do not have UN approval
Agree - 46%
Disagree - 32%
Strong disagreement from Green and SNP voters, with high support from Conservative and UKIP voters

I trust Jeremy Corbyn to keep me and my family safe
Agree - 17% (34% of 2015 Lab Voters)
Disagree - 58% (34% of 2015 Lab Voters)

I trust David Cameron to keep me and my family safe
Agree - 39%
Disagree - 39%

We have to accept infringements of privacy on the internet for the sake of fighting terrorism
Agree - 70%
Disagree - 17%

Labour MPs should remove Jeremy Corbyn as leader of the Labour Party
Agree - 40% (29% of Lab 2015 Voters)
Disagree - 31% (47% of Lab 2015 Voters)

I would be prepared to pay more for energy bills in order to reduce climate change
Agree - 23%
Disagree - 57%
The younger the respondent, the more likely they were to agree with the statement

[Clyde1998]

That's far too clumsy of a graph, should have a done a table.

so it seems LD hadn't reach rock bottom quite yet

It appears that a large number of Lib Dem voters are in the Don't Know category, for now at least, so they're probably polling around what they got in the election (without don't knows).

[Clyde1998]

YouGov Poll - Would you approve or disapprove of the RAF taking part in air strike operations against Islamic State/ISIS in Syria?
Approve - 48% (-11 on last week)
Disapprove - 31% (+11)

Support from air strikes have plummeted in the last week; although Cameron's approval rating increase and Corbyn's falls.