PA: Harper: Toomey leads by 20+ points
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  PA: Harper: Toomey leads by 20+ points
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Author Topic: PA: Harper: Toomey leads by 20+ points  (Read 3835 times)
Miles
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« on: May 11, 2015, 09:01:44 AM »

Article.

Toomey (R)- 53%
Sestak (D)- 32%

Toomey- 54%
Pawlowski- 30%

Toomey- 55%
Shapiro- 27%
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1 on: May 11, 2015, 10:59:10 AM »

Drat.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #2 on: May 11, 2015, 11:20:35 AM »

Inb4 pbrower or analysis that this is a junk poll, even if this big a lead would render those complaints moot
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Ebsy
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« Reply #3 on: May 11, 2015, 12:05:12 PM »

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the margin is probably not going to be 20 points.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #4 on: May 11, 2015, 12:15:09 PM »

Let's just cancel the election and appoint Toomey for life. If Harper says he's up this much, there is no point in having an election. Republican polls are so accurate.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #5 on: May 11, 2015, 01:51:10 PM »

Let's just cancel the election and appoint Toomey for life. If Harper says he's up this much, there is no point in having an election. Republican polls are so accurate.
Actually, Harper Polling isn't a terrible firm. They seem to have gotten North Carolina 2014 pretty much right.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #6 on: May 11, 2015, 02:46:36 PM »

ayy lmao
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IceSpear
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« Reply #7 on: May 11, 2015, 02:47:59 PM »

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the margin is probably not going to be 20 points.

That's like the safest bet ever. Barring some kind of scandal on the Dem side, Toomey's ceiling is likely a win in the high single digits.
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Skye
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« Reply #8 on: May 11, 2015, 02:55:17 PM »

IMO, those are pretty damn good numbers. Maybe PA doesn't end up being competitive after all?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #9 on: May 11, 2015, 02:58:47 PM »

This poll has Toomey winning 1/3 of the African American vote against Sestak, and ties Shapiro with African Americans.

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Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
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« Reply #10 on: May 11, 2015, 02:59:03 PM »

Sestak stuck himself out on limb with card check. But, this does spell some trouble in OH for Strickland who has fallen behind.

It still leans GOP, but it is far from a done deal; 20 pts. More like 10.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #11 on: May 11, 2015, 03:17:48 PM »

IMO, those are pretty damn good numbers. Maybe PA doesn't end up being competitive after all?

It's possible Toomey is ahead by a lot right now (Quinnipiac says he is, PPP and F&M disagree), but this poll is the equivalent of someone showing a Democrat winning whites in Mississippi. It's actually mind boggling they'd have the gall to release a poll showing these kind of numbers among AAs.
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henster
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« Reply #12 on: May 11, 2015, 04:48:46 PM »

Katie McGinty needs to step up for the party, I know she's serving Wolf right now but she'd be a decent Senate candidate, much better than Sestak atp.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #13 on: May 11, 2015, 06:04:24 PM »

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the margin is probably not going to be 20 points.

Indeed. Toomey is in a good place, though.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #14 on: May 11, 2015, 06:06:30 PM »

So is Portman more vulnerable than Toomey now? Doesn't seem to make sense to me.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #15 on: May 11, 2015, 06:14:30 PM »

So is Portman more vulnerable than Toomey now? Doesn't seem to make sense to me.

Why not? Portman actually has a very serious competitor.

Toomey is a beast! VP material in 2020.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #16 on: May 13, 2015, 06:26:04 AM »

lol Harper
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JRP1994
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« Reply #17 on: May 13, 2015, 08:25:46 AM »

Cut Toomey's lead in half. Then cut it in half again. He still leads by more than the MoE.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #18 on: May 13, 2015, 08:21:02 PM »

This race will be decided by less than 5 points, let alone less than 20.
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« Reply #19 on: May 13, 2015, 09:18:06 PM »

This poll has Toomey winning 1/3 of the African American vote against Sestak, and ties Shapiro with African Americans.

wow, it's almost as if African Americans represented a small fraction of the sample that is proportional to their numbers in the state. Tongue

Ignore the 20 point gap. Toomey is getting 53-55% in the poll, which sounds about right unless he meets a strong challenger.
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Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
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« Reply #20 on: May 18, 2015, 06:41:57 PM »
« Edited: May 18, 2015, 06:47:58 PM by OC »

Polls in Pa is misleading at this point, and everyone knows it. The opponent usually gets a lift closer to the election. Santorum got a lift against Casey; so did Sestak in 2010. This was the same when Josh Mandel came within stricking distince of Brown.

Portman & Toomey duo are gonna be targetted once the Dem primaries are over.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #21 on: May 19, 2015, 06:17:15 PM »

This was the same when Josh Mandel came within stricking distince of Brown.

Wrong state and it never happened unless you count Rasmussen which no one in their right mind should.

To counter that, Corbett-Wolf... Was never in doubt for the challenger.
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Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
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« Reply #22 on: May 20, 2015, 10:48:26 AM »
« Edited: May 20, 2015, 10:54:03 AM by OC »

Santorum and Sestak were behind too and got with striking distance.

Toomey isnt primaried; dont forget Corbett too got a lift within six points.

No way Toomey is leading by 20.

Franklin and Marshall Corbett down by Seven. Where other showed it 20 points.

You are right, Rausmussen fouled things up.
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Xing
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« Reply #23 on: May 22, 2015, 11:33:46 AM »

Obviously a junk poll. Toomey isn't going to win by more than Santorum lost. I don't doubt that Toomey is at least somewhat ahead, but it would be foolish not to invest in this race. PA is more likely than not to stay Democratic in the presidential race, so Toomey will have to count on winning a lot of Clinton voters.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #24 on: May 22, 2015, 09:54:44 PM »

Obviously a junk poll. Toomey isn't going to win by more than Santorum lost. I don't doubt that Toomey is at least somewhat ahead, but it would be foolish not to invest in this race. PA is more likely than not to stay Democratic in the presidential race, so Toomey will have to count on winning a lot of Clinton voters.

The statewide and national Dem establishment is far more focused on beating Sestak than they are on beating Toomey.
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