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Author Topic: NOTE: How to enter 2016 polls to the database (at the moment)  (Read 15467 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: May 11, 2015, 10:55:55 am »

As long as the GOP field is fluid:

Tender: Perhaps you should sticky a thread on the polling board, giving instructions about entering polls?  Otherwise, no one is going to remember the thing about averaging Bush/Rubio/Walker.

Also:

If someone wants to enter a new (or old) poll into the database, please do it the way DAVE did and average the GOP numbers from Bush/Walker/Rubio and use the average of Hillary against these 3 Republicans.

If a poll only shows Hillary vs. one or two top-Republicans, then just average these and enter it to the database.

I think averaging the top-3 GOPers is the best right now to show how the GOP matches against Hillary ...

Thx.
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #1 on: May 11, 2015, 01:32:36 pm »

Will this formula stay the same even if one or more of those candidates implode?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: May 12, 2015, 01:46:02 am »

Will this formula stay the same even if one or more of those candidates implode?

No, in this case we use the new TOP-3 on the RCP average:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #3 on: May 12, 2015, 11:46:12 am »

Hi -
Is there a desire for individual polling databases in addition to the generic - i.e. Clinton-Walker, Clinton-Bush, etc.?  This is of course a lot more data entry…

Thanks,
Dave
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King
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« Reply #4 on: May 12, 2015, 11:49:03 am »

Hi -
Is there a desire for individual polling databases in addition to the generic - i.e. Clinton-Walker, Clinton-Bush, etc.?  This is of course a lot more data entry…

Thanks,
Dave

I think we should hold off until the GOP contenders becomes clearer (December?). It'd be a waste to do all that work on a Clinton-Walker map and then Walker completely busts and drops out in November, for example.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5 on: May 12, 2015, 12:46:11 pm »

Hi -
Is there a desire for individual polling databases in addition to the generic - i.e. Clinton-Walker, Clinton-Bush, etc.?  This is of course a lot more data entry…

Thanks,
Dave

Nah, that would be too much.

Besides, pbrower already does that (even though he likes to exclude polls that show Republicans ahead):

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=169131.msg4597502#msg4597502

Maybe you can write him a PM and tell him to include every poll.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6 on: May 12, 2015, 01:14:16 pm »

I suggest that favorite sons (Snyder in Michigan, Kasich in Ohio, Santorum in Pennsylvania, Palin in Alaska) be recognized separately from the others if they are not understood to be national contenders.   
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7 on: May 13, 2015, 09:05:23 am »

Since when do 2012 election results count as polls?

It's just to fill the unpolled states on the map.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8 on: July 09, 2015, 12:09:59 am »

Will this formula stay the same even if one or more of those candidates implode?

No, in this case we use the new TOP-3 on the RCP average:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html

This ranking has now changed, btw.

The TOP-3 are now:

Bush
Walker
Carson

(but I guess it will soon be Bush, Walker, Trump ...)
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #9 on: July 09, 2015, 12:39:44 am »

If Dave is serious about this "top 3 from RCP" thing (is he? or was that a Tender proposal that Dave just ran with), then he should probably say that that's what we're doing on the main polling page.  I mean, this thread is all well and good for those of us on the forum, but the audience for Dave's site extends beyond this forum.  If I went here:

http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php

and had never been to this forum before, I wouldn't really know what the data on the map is supposed to represent.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #10 on: July 09, 2015, 12:42:00 am »

If Dave is serious about this "top 3 from RCP" thing (is he? or was that a Tender proposal that Dave just ran with), then he should probably say that that's what we're doing on the main polling page.  I mean, this thread is all well and good for those of us on the forum, but the audience for Dave's site extends beyond this forum.  If I went here:

http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php

and had never been to this forum before, I wouldn't really know what the data on the map is supposed to represent.


It's the other way round: Dave set up the 2016 database and entered a poll with the top-3 at that time and I just went with it and posted the criteria here.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #11 on: July 09, 2015, 12:49:52 am »

If Dave is serious about this "top 3 from RCP" thing (is he? or was that a Tender proposal that Dave just ran with), then he should probably say that that's what we're doing on the main polling page.  I mean, this thread is all well and good for those of us on the forum, but the audience for Dave's site extends beyond this forum.  If I went here:

http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php

and had never been to this forum before, I wouldn't really know what the data on the map is supposed to represent.


It's the other way round: Dave set up the 2016 database and entered a poll with the top-3 at that time and I just went with it and posted the criteria here.

OK.  Well, my underlying point stands.  In the unlikely event that Dave is reading this, my recommendation to him would be for him to explain his methodology on that polling page.  Because as it is now, it wouldn't really make sense to someone who hasn't read this thread.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #12 on: July 13, 2015, 12:55:55 pm »

If Dave is serious about this "top 3 from RCP" thing (is he? or was that a Tender proposal that Dave just ran with), then he should probably say that that's what we're doing on the main polling page.  I mean, this thread is all well and good for those of us on the forum, but the audience for Dave's site extends beyond this forum.  If I went here:

http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php

and had never been to this forum before, I wouldn't really know what the data on the map is supposed to represent.


It's the other way round: Dave set up the 2016 database and entered a poll with the top-3 at that time and I just went with it and posted the criteria here.

OK.  Well, my underlying point stands.  In the unlikely event that Dave is reading this, my recommendation to him would be for him to explain his methodology on that polling page.  Because as it is now, it wouldn't really make sense to someone who hasn't read this thread.

I agree that Dave should probably post here at some point and explain what he prefers.

Anyway, the new TOP-3 according to RCP are now Bush, Trump and Walker.

This is what we will use in the database for the next polls.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #13 on: August 20, 2015, 02:50:04 pm »

According to RCP, the top-3 are now Trump/Bush/Carson. Shall we include those now?

As I am THE moderator and my word is the gold standard: Yes.

(If Carson is not polled, use the one polled who's next on the RCP average)
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #14 on: August 20, 2015, 02:51:54 pm »

According to RCP, the top-3 are now Trump/Bush/Carson. Shall we include those now?

As I am THE moderator and my word is the gold standard: Yes.

(If Carson is not polled, use the one polled who's next on the RCP average)

Okay thx. So always include Clinton vs. the TOP 3 in the RCP average?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #15 on: August 20, 2015, 02:55:14 pm »

According to RCP, the top-3 are now Trump/Bush/Carson. Shall we include those now?

As I am THE moderator and my word is the gold standard: Yes.

(If Carson is not polled, use the one polled who's next on the RCP average)

Okay thx. So always include Clinton vs. the TOP 3 in the RCP average?

At this point it is the best option I guess.

If we average all Republicans polled against Hillary, it could inflate her margin - simply because some Republicans have a low name recognition right now and trail by bigger margins than well-known GOPers.

For example it makes no sense to average a poll that includes Lindsey Graham and where he's down 20 points to Hillary.
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #16 on: March 18, 2016, 09:55:23 am »

Hi,
At this point, all polls should be Clinton-Trump until/unless something changes.

Thanks,
Dave

"typo" removed "not" Smiley
« Last Edit: March 29, 2016, 05:19:19 pm by Dave Leip »Logged
Sorenroy
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« Reply #17 on: March 21, 2016, 06:34:05 am »

At this point, all polls should not be Clinton-Trump until/unless something changes.

So, to those posting polls, doesn't the "should not be" mean it should still be the average of the top three candidates?
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #18 on: March 29, 2016, 05:19:46 pm »

At this point, all polls should not be Clinton-Trump until/unless something changes.

So, to those posting polls, doesn't the "should not be" mean it should still be the average of the top three candidates?

Bad typo there.  I meant to say that we should be Trump-Clinton.
Thanks,
Dave
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« Reply #19 on: March 29, 2016, 06:40:09 pm »

Hi,
At this point, all polls should be Clinton-Trump until/unless something changes.

Thanks,
Dave

"typo" removed "not" Smiley
I agree with this.
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #20 on: April 06, 2016, 04:30:12 pm »

Hi,
At this point, all polls should be Clinton-Trump until/unless something changes.

Well, I think things have changed quite a bit. I think it'd be the best to enter the average of the Clinton vs. Trump/Cruz/Kasich numbers into the database.
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« Reply #21 on: April 15, 2016, 12:15:00 pm »

I'm still showing maps of matchups -- and I add (I doubt that I will add anyone anymore) possible nominees as they appear relevant or drop them as they become irrelevant (as they drop out or get defeated, as most recently Marco Rubio did). 

 
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« Reply #22 on: May 08, 2016, 04:48:02 pm »

I created a chart on statpedia to show the results of all the General Election Polls over the last three months with the data taken from RealClear Politics. It shows up when you search for "poll".
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #23 on: June 24, 2016, 06:57:40 pm »

Wouldn't it be interesting to have some sort of national poll tracker as well?

I know there are a lot out there already, but everything's better with AtlasTM.
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« Reply #24 on: June 24, 2016, 07:01:01 pm »

idk, I think there are enough national polling averages (RCP, NYT, 538, Huffpollster) that there isn't really a need for another one.
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