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  Election Predictions (Moderator: muon2)
  2016 Presidential Predictions (General)
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Latest 2016 Predictions (Highest Scores)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
Dav64 (R-NC)MapProfile 11-07 1 R +54 260 (+54) 278 (-54) 0 (0) 0
TexasDemocrat (G-TX)MapProfile 11-07 2 R +54 260 (+54) 278 (-54) 0 (0) 0
Mark Warner 08 (I-AUT)MapProfile 11-07 1 R +60 266 (+60) 272 (-60) 0 (0) 0
JonathanSwift (R-GA)MapProfile 11-07 32 R +119 325 (+119) 213 (-119) 0 (0) 0
Sheliak6 (I-GA)Map 11-07 20 R +74 280 (+74) 258 (-74) 0 (0) 0
dfwlibertylover (I-TX)MapProfile 11-07 4 R +54 260 (+54) 278 (-54) 0 (0) 0
AHDuke99 (R-SC)MapProfile 11-07 1 R +25 231 (+25) 307 (-25) 0 (0) 0
dmurphy1984 (R-NY)Map 11-07 1 R +54 260 (+54) 278 (-54) 0 (0) 0
Averroes (I-VT)MapProfile 11-08 21 R +39 245 (+39) 293 (-39) 0 (0) 0
Byrhtferth (I-GBR)MapProfile 10-05 1 R +60 266 (+60) 272 (-60) 0 (0) 0
Latest 2016 Predictions (Most Recent Entries)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
Ruby2014 (I-OH)MapProfile 11-08 11 R +144 350 (+144) 188 (-144) 0 (0) 0
HagridOfTheDeep (D-BC)MapProfile 11-08 29 D +10 196 (-10) 342 (+10) 0 (0) 0
kyc0705 (O-NJ)MapProfile 11-08 7 R +9 215 (+9) 323 (-9) 0 (0) 0
skolodji (D-CA)MapProfile 11-08 3 D +10 196 (-10) 342 (+10) 0 (0) 0
Ryne (R-WA)MapProfile 11-08 9 R +84 290 (+84) 248 (-84) 0 (0) 0
sbane1 (I-CA)Map 11-08 2 D +20 186 (-20) 352 (+20) 0 (0) 0
Clinton1996 (D-GA)MapProfile 11-08 3 D +10 196 (-10) 342 (+10) 0 (0) 0
Shadowlord88 (D-KY)MapProfile 11-08 3 D +9 197 (-9) 341 (+9) 0 (0) 0
Beaver2 (D-VA)MapProfile 11-08 5 R +9 215 (+9) 323 (-9) 0 (0) 0
ahfink (O-IL)Map 11-08 1 R +59 265 (+59) 273 (-59) 0 (0) 0
Latest 2016 Predictions (Most Recent Comments)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
bluemcdowell (D-WV)
by man_of_honor885 on 2018-11-06 @ 06:32:28
Map 11-07 290 R +10 216 (+10) 322 (-10) 0 (0) 12
Spenstar3D (D-NY)
by boatfullogoats on 2018-10-08 @ 03:19:40
MapProfile 11-07 1 R +70 276 (+70) 262 (-70) 0 (0) 1
RobLewis (R-AZ)
by boatfullogoats on 2018-10-08 @ 03:18:15
MapProfile 10-05 1 R +106 312 (+106) 226 (-106) 0 (0) 2
slick67 (R-SC)
by KnuxMaster368 on 2018-09-13 @ 11:03:34
Map 10-21 1 R +101 307 (+101) 231 (-101) 0 (0) 1
Simfan34 (I-NY)
by firstdegreburns on 2017-10-24 @ 19:55:03
MapProfile 12-14 2 D +178 11 (-195) 510 (+178) 17 (+17) 1
norlion (R-FL)
by jaichind on 2016-12-05 @ 07:50:32
Map 12-02 1 R +93 299 (+93) 239 (-93) 0 (0) 3
Abe_Washington (R-NY)
by Abe_Washington on 2016-11-18 @ 12:00:43
Map 07-30 4 R +139 345 (+139) 193 (-139) 0 (0) 2
colin (R-ON)
by colin on 2016-11-16 @ 08:36:08
Map 11-07 9 R +60 266 (+60) 272 (-60) 0 (0) 1
wingindy (I-IN)
by bluemcdowell on 2016-11-12 @ 20:22:34
Map 07-25 11 R +94 300 (+94) 238 (-94) 0 (0) 6
ReaganClinton16 (I-CT)
by ReaganClinton16 on 2016-11-09 @ 18:23:58
MapProfile 11-08 14 R +9 215 (+9) 323 (-9) 0 (0) 1
Latest Discussion Topics
Author Topic: 2016 Presidential Predictions (General)  (Read 82280 times)
Dave Leip
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« on: May 15, 2015, 09:47:56 pm »
« edited: May 15, 2015, 09:54:45 pm by Dave Leip »

Hi,
I've enabled the 2012 General Election Presidential Prediction Script here

Enjoy and let me know if you find any bugs.

the Primary Predictions for the Republican 2016 primary season will be available after the calendar gets nailed down.

Note you will need to be sure your atlas and forum accounts are linked for your map to be compiled.  You can link them on your myatlas page

Enjoy,
Dave

Compiled Prediction Map
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #1 on: May 15, 2015, 10:44:31 pm »

First!
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Ebsy
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« Reply #2 on: May 15, 2015, 11:02:36 pm »

I bet you to the other 2 though! I guess it was... inevitable.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #3 on: May 16, 2015, 12:04:12 am »

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SWE
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« Reply #4 on: May 16, 2015, 08:36:51 am »

Sixth!
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mathstatman
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« Reply #5 on: May 16, 2015, 08:43:50 am »

I've alluded to this elsewhere, but I think Clinton/Warner will lose the popular vote to Bush/Portman, but win in the EC and Mrs. Clinton will be sworn in as President in 2017.

Clinton/Warner 48.6% / 276 EV
Bush/Portman 49.1% / 262 EV
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Flake
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« Reply #6 on: May 16, 2015, 09:43:32 am »


Eighth!

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Skye
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« Reply #7 on: May 16, 2015, 04:17:39 pm »

Woo! This'll be fun. I wonder how these will change once the campaign for the general begins.
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« Reply #8 on: May 16, 2015, 04:27:59 pm »

I'm pretty much doing generic Rep/Dem until after the primary season, so I won't touch it again until then, because obviously, predictions are kind of meaningless at this point

https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2016/pred.php?action=indpred&memb_id=15515
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True Federalist
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« Reply #9 on: May 17, 2015, 12:50:21 am »

As I've done in the past, I'll post from time to time on how stable the predictions are.

23 predictions at present.  5 new predictions could change the map as follows.

Colorado 40%D -> 50%D
Florida: 40%D -> 40%R
Hawaii: 60%D -> 70%D
Kentucky: 50%R -> 60%R
New Hampshire: tossup -> lean D
Utah: 60%R -> 70%R

Obviously it would take 5 very weird maps to cause all these changes to happen at the same time. Other than the potential change in Florida, none of these changes would cause a state to switch its predicted vote, so the overall prediction of Clinton winning isn't likely to change any time soon.
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whitesox130
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« Reply #10 on: July 22, 2015, 07:27:33 pm »

Right now, it looks like the Obama/Romney map is the most likely, but Florida seems to be moving rightward despite its demographic changes. Quinnipiac released a map showing Hillary Clinton losing big in Colorado and Iowa and narrowly in Virginia, but I'd have to see more polls to bear this out. Clinton seems strangely weak in Colorado, and I have no idea why.
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Pro-Life Single Issue Voter
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« Reply #11 on: July 26, 2015, 11:34:06 pm »



Walker/Rubio: 288 EV, 50%
Clinton/Webb: 250 EV, 48.5%

PA and VA are not called until Wednesday morning, and the result hangs in the balance.

Battleground map:
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #12 on: July 27, 2015, 03:47:36 pm »

Clinton will win Pa.
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #13 on: July 30, 2015, 10:59:11 am »

Hillary Clinton would probably carry Pennsylvania if ether Donald Trump, Ted Cruz or Mike Huckabee get the Republican nomination. On the other hand, if she faced off against either Scott Walker, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush or John Kasich, then Pennsylvania would almost certainly be in play for the Republicans.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #14 on: July 30, 2015, 12:07:00 pm »

Once she picks a strong VP either Castro or Kaine, her polls will come up in OH, Va and CO; as well as Pa.
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MisSkeptic
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« Reply #15 on: July 30, 2015, 09:57:08 pm »

While I'm not very good at predictions; I predict Hillary Clinton winning a close race with little more electoral college needed to win the White House. This election's Republican nominee, who I believe will most likely be Jeb Bush, will score around or maybe a smaller amount, of electoral college as Mitt Romney in the last election.

The reason I feel Hilary Clinton has a better chance is because of multiple reasons: Small amount of Democrat candidates; which only Bernie Sanders is being talked about and having any creditability with voters, There are way too many Republican candidates! Which not only affects how voters will see the future Republican nominee, but alienate voters as to whether the future nominee is conservative enough, how he can appeal to moderate voters, etc. I feel if there was a smaller number of Republican candidates than they easily debate each other, then go after Hillary Clinton and Sanders.

If Hillary Clinton does indeed win, hopefully the Republican party will learn from their mistakes and encourage younger politicians who can help shape the future of the Republican party. 
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #16 on: August 02, 2015, 05:57:58 am »

Jeb was the wrong candidate, he was rusty and made the wrong call on Iraq, substaining Dubya's policy.

Barb, his mom was right, there were enough Bushes in WH. But, Latinos in CO, NV & NM arent going away. The sunbelt is growing more rapidly than Appalachia and has replaced that region as the bellweather of elections
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #17 on: September 07, 2015, 01:07:53 am »

I wouldn't usually do this, but I'm updating my prediction (just a little bit). Its clear that Donald Trump is pulling the Republican Party into a more anti-immigration platform. No matter who the nominee is, the whole process of talking about birthright citizenship, the 14th amendment, and restricting legal immigration, is going to hurt Republicans with Latinos and Asians. Therefore, I have moved Nevada to Lean D and New Mexico to Strong D.
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« Reply #18 on: September 08, 2015, 06:01:39 pm »

Dave, when will primary predictions open?
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #19 on: September 09, 2015, 06:31:51 pm »


After the primary calendar is supposed to be finalized  (October 1).
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Pro-Life Single Issue Voter
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« Reply #20 on: September 11, 2015, 08:07:40 pm »



Walker/Rubio: 288 EV, 50%
Clinton/Webb: 250 EV, 48.5%

PA and VA are not called until Wednesday morning, and the result hangs in the balance.

Battleground map:


I'm now thinking that 2016 may be a landslide:


Popular Vote: 55-44
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #21 on: September 12, 2015, 05:46:19 pm »

^How on earth does this happen?

My prediction is still the same as it was a couple of months ago: A very close election, with PA/VA/NH being the states to watch (NH only if Clinton is the nominee). Those are all must-win states for Democrats.
Kasich/Ayotte v. Sanders/Kate Brown?
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Pro-Life Single Issue Voter
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« Reply #22 on: September 13, 2015, 04:53:36 pm »

^How on earth does this happen?

My prediction is still the same as it was a couple of months ago: A very close election, with PA/VA/NH being the states to watch (NH only if Clinton is the nominee). Those are all must-win states for Democrats.
Kasich/Ayotte v. Sanders/Kate Brown?

Rubio/Martinez appeals to many Latinos, and moderates get turned by a very scandal-prone Clinton/Sherrod Brown.
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skoods
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« Reply #23 on: September 26, 2015, 01:36:58 pm »

^How on earth does this happen?

My prediction is still the same as it was a couple of months ago: A very close election, with PA/VA/NH being the states to watch (NH only if Clinton is the nominee). Those are all must-win states for Democrats.

Look at his username. That's how it happens.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #24 on: September 27, 2015, 08:04:12 am »
« Edited: September 27, 2015, 08:08:49 am by OC »

Jeb was looking like a lock for Prez,  but he faded. Now it looks as though Clinton can definitely seal the deal with the senate and Prez with a convincing victory over Trump. And Pa isnt lean GOP.
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