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|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Election Predictions (Moderator: muon2)
| | |-+  2016 Presidential Predictions (General)
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Latest 2016 Predictions (Highest Scores)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
Dav64 (R-NC)MapProfile 11-07 1 R +54 260 (+54) 278 (-54) 0 (0) 0
TexasDemocrat (G-TX)MapProfile 11-07 2 R +54 260 (+54) 278 (-54) 0 (0) 0
Mark Warner 08 (I-AUT)MapProfile 11-07 1 R +60 266 (+60) 272 (-60) 0 (0) 0
JonathanSwift (R-GA)MapProfile 11-07 32 R +119 325 (+119) 213 (-119) 0 (0) 0
Sheliak6 (I-GA)Map 11-07 20 R +74 280 (+74) 258 (-74) 0 (0) 0
dfwlibertylover (I-TX)MapProfile 11-07 4 R +54 260 (+54) 278 (-54) 0 (0) 0
AHDuke99 (R-SC)MapProfile 11-07 1 R +25 231 (+25) 307 (-25) 0 (0) 0
dmurphy1984 (R-NY)Map 11-07 1 R +54 260 (+54) 278 (-54) 0 (0) 0
Averroes (I-NY)MapProfile 11-08 21 R +39 245 (+39) 293 (-39) 0 (0) 0
Byrhtferth (I-GBR)MapProfile 10-05 1 R +60 266 (+60) 272 (-60) 0 (0) 0
Latest 2016 Predictions (Most Recent Entries)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
Ruby2014 (I-OH)MapProfile 11-08 11 R +144 350 (+144) 188 (-144) 0 (0) 0
HagridOfTheDeep (D-BC)MapProfile 11-08 29 D +10 196 (-10) 342 (+10) 0 (0) 0
kyc0705 (O-NJ)MapProfile 11-08 7 R +9 215 (+9) 323 (-9) 0 (0) 0
skolodji (D-CA)MapProfile 11-08 3 D +10 196 (-10) 342 (+10) 0 (0) 0
Ryne (R-WA)MapProfile 11-08 9 R +84 290 (+84) 248 (-84) 0 (0) 0
sbane1 (I-CA)Map 11-08 2 D +20 186 (-20) 352 (+20) 0 (0) 0
Clinton1996 (D-GA)MapProfile 11-08 3 D +10 196 (-10) 342 (+10) 0 (0) 0
Shadowlord88 (D-KY)MapProfile 11-08 3 D +9 197 (-9) 341 (+9) 0 (0) 0
Beaver2 (--VA)MapProfile 11-08 5 R +9 215 (+9) 323 (-9) 0 (0) 0
ahfink (O-IL)Map 11-08 1 R +59 265 (+59) 273 (-59) 0 (0) 0
Latest 2016 Predictions (Most Recent Comments)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
bluemcdowell (D-WV)
by man_of_honor885 on 2018-11-06 @ 06:32:28
Map 11-07 290 R +10 216 (+10) 322 (-10) 0 (0) 12
Spenstar3D (D-NY)
by boatfullogoats on 2018-10-08 @ 03:19:40
MapProfile 11-07 1 R +70 276 (+70) 262 (-70) 0 (0) 1
RobLewis (R-AZ)
by boatfullogoats on 2018-10-08 @ 03:18:15
MapProfile 10-05 1 R +106 312 (+106) 226 (-106) 0 (0) 2
slick67 (R-SC)
by KnuxMaster368 on 2018-09-13 @ 11:03:34
Map 10-21 1 R +101 307 (+101) 231 (-101) 0 (0) 1
Simfan34 (I-NY)
by firstdegreburns on 2017-10-24 @ 19:55:03
MapProfile 12-14 2 D +178 11 (-195) 510 (+178) 17 (+17) 1
norlion (R-FL)
by jaichind on 2016-12-05 @ 07:50:32
Map 12-02 1 R +93 299 (+93) 239 (-93) 0 (0) 3
Abe_Washington (R-NY)
by Abe_Washington on 2016-11-18 @ 12:00:43
MapProfile 07-30 4 R +139 345 (+139) 193 (-139) 0 (0) 2
colin (R-ON)
by colin on 2016-11-16 @ 08:36:08
Map 11-07 9 R +60 266 (+60) 272 (-60) 0 (0) 1
wingindy (I-IN)
by bluemcdowell on 2016-11-12 @ 20:22:34
Map 07-25 11 R +94 300 (+94) 238 (-94) 0 (0) 6
ReaganClinton16 (I-CT)
by ReaganClinton16 on 2016-11-09 @ 18:23:58
MapProfile 11-08 14 R +9 215 (+9) 323 (-9) 0 (0) 1
Latest Discussion Topics
Author Topic: 2016 Presidential Predictions (General)  (Read 78388 times)
Mr. Illini
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« Reply #25 on: October 04, 2015, 03:26:42 pm »

Walker/Rubio: 288 EV, 50%

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big bad fab
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« Reply #26 on: November 12, 2015, 10:55:54 am »

A pity Carson and Christie have the same colours in the 2016 Rep Primary prediction.
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The_Doctor
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« Reply #27 on: November 12, 2015, 01:34:34 pm »

How do you make a prediction and get it added?

Mine is 299-239 R, 49-49% R.
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Senator Haslam2020
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« Reply #28 on: January 29, 2016, 08:32:10 pm »

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olowakandi
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« Reply #29 on: January 31, 2016, 08:22:40 am »

Co 40-50% D
FL 50-50% R
Pa 50-50% D
NH tossup to Lean D

Clinton-Castro 272-266 v Trump
51/49
« Last Edit: January 31, 2016, 08:42:38 am by OC »Logged
ExtremeConservative
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« Reply #30 on: January 31, 2016, 09:11:27 pm »

Co 40-50% D
FL 50-50% R
Pa 50-50% D
NH tossup to Lean D

Clinton-Castro 272-266 v Trump
51/49

OC, does that hold if Rubio or Cruz is the nominee?
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Meclazine
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« Reply #31 on: February 28, 2016, 03:05:11 am »

Nice one. California and New York look like real killers for Trump.

Not a lot of room left when you start 84 points down.
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #32 on: April 04, 2016, 11:20:40 am »

Apologies for missing North Dakota's GOP primary over the weekend. My grandmother, who has just had a hip operation, was suffering from a low sodium count (and may have been ever since she was discharged) and therefore I have been more concerned about her. I am pleased to report that she is now recovering and wanted to explain the lack of a prediction for that event.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #33 on: May 04, 2016, 04:10:35 pm »

Clinton vs Trump Prognostication

Safe D: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, ME-01, MD, MA, NJ, NM, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA
Likely D: CO, MI, MN, NH, WI
Lean D: FL, IA, ME-02, NV, PA, VA
Toss-Up: NE-02, NC, OH
Lean R: AZ, GA
Likely R: AK, IN, MO, MT, UT
Safe R: AL, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, NE-01, NE-03, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, WV, WY

Safe D: 190 EVs
Likely D: 49 EVs
Lean D: 75 EVs
Toss-Up: 34 EVs
Lean R: 27 EVs
Likely R: 33 EVs
Safe R: 130 EVs

Democratic: 314 EVs
Toss-Up: 34 EVs
Republican: 190 EVs

Overall Vote Prediction

Clinton: 51%
Trump: 44%
Johnson: 3%
Other: 2%

Overall Rating: Lean D (bellwether: PA, NV or IA)

Most likely result in my view is a repeat of 2012 except with North Carolina going narrowly to Clinton. I am perfectly flexible to changing ratings with new polling data, shifts in the race, or worldwide/nationwide events.

Atlas Prediction

May 31st Update

Likely D --> Lean D: ME-02, NH
Toss-Up --> Lean R: NC
Lean R --> Likely R: MO
Likely R --> Safe R: TX, UT

Temporarily, the race has moved in more favorable conditions for Trump, with a slight Clinton advantage still. My atlas prediction remains the same, but a Hillary win of 3-6% is more likely now with the current conditions.

July 5th Update


Lean R --> Toss-Up: NC
Safe R --> Likely R: UT

Added Overall Vote Prediction

August 1st Update

Lean D --> Likely D: CO
Likely D --> Lean D: NV

Updated Overall Vote Prediction

So Nevada is showing signs of being more competitive than previously thought. I will give the benefit of the doubt to Democrats since they are usually underestimated in the state polling and data, so I do not plan on ever moving to toss-up, but I can move it Likely D again. Colorado is because three polls came out averaging Clinton +10, and the state has one of the most college educated electorates in the nation, terrible news for Trump. Of course, flexible and can move back to Lean D. I do feel weird having Nevada more competitive than Colorado, but have to go with it for now.

8/6/16 Update

GA: Likely R --> Lean R
NH: Lean D --> Likely D

Updated Overall Vote Prediction
« Last Edit: August 06, 2016, 12:41:09 am by ElectionsGuy »Logged
LLR
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« Reply #34 on: May 05, 2016, 06:23:17 am »

Clinton vs. Trump



Dems: 345
Pubs: 138
Tossup: 55

Dems:
Strong: 195
Likely: 41
Lean: 109

Tossup: 55

Pubs:
Lean: 16
Likely: 6
Strong: 116

Overall: Likely D
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #35 on: June 02, 2016, 12:29:05 am »

With the latest poll showing TRUMP at 32% among Hispanics nationally, I now add Florida to his arsenal and therefore believe he would win if the election was held today.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #36 on: June 07, 2016, 04:01:32 pm »

New maps following Trump racism comment. Big leg up for Clinton.

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Abraham Washington
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« Reply #37 on: June 18, 2016, 12:30:46 pm »



TRUMP:

209 EV

SAFE: 108 EV

LIKELY: 50 EV

LEAN: 51 EV



CLINTON:

207 EV

SAFE: 38 EV

LIKELY: 138 EV

LEAN: 31 EV


TOSSUP:

122 EV

________________________________________________________

PREDICTION AS OF JUNE 18, 2016



Donald Trump - 288 EV (51%)
Hillary Clinton - 250 EV (47%)



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Fmr. Deputy Speaker Spark
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« Reply #38 on: July 05, 2016, 10:12:54 pm »

State Ratings

Clinton vs Trump

Safe D: CA, WA, NM, HI, NY, MA, IL, MD, DE, VT, CT, RI, ME
Likely D: MN, OR, NJ
Lean D: WI, MI, PA, NH, CO, VA
Toss-Up: NV, OH
Lean R: AZ, GA, NE-02, NC, ME-02, IA, FL
Likely R: MO, UT, TX, SD, KS, SC, MT, ND, NE-01
Safe R: AK, ID, WY, OK, LA, AR, AL, TN, KY, WV, IN, MS

Safe D: 166 EVs
Likely D: 31 EVs
Lean D: 75 EVs
Toss-Up: 24 EVs
Lean R: 79 EVs
Likely R: 55 EVs
Safe R: 108 EVs



Democratic: 272 EVs
Republican: 242 EVs
Toss-Up: 24 EVs

Popular Vote Prediction:

Clinton: 47.6%
Trump: 48.2%
Johnson: 4%
Stein: 0.2%
Other: 0.0%

Overall Rating: Toss-up (bellwether: PA or IA)

Update 7/9- New Ratings

VA = Likely D --> Lean D
NV = Lean D --> Toss-up

ME-02 = Lean D --> Toss=up

Update 7/11 - New Ratings

NV = Toss-up --> Lean D

Update 7/13 - New Ratings

AZ = Lean R --> Likely R
IA = Toss-up --> Lean R
PA = Toss-up --> Lean R
FL = Toss-up --> Lean R
CO = Toss-up --> Lean D

Update 7/18 - New Ratings

IA = Lean R --> Toss-up
PA = Lean R --> Toss-up
NH = Toss-up --> Lean D
OH = Toss-up --> Lean R


Update 7/22 - New Ratings

IA = Toss-up --> Lean R
ME-02 = Toss-up --> Lean R
VA = Lean D --> Likely D


Update 7/26 - New Ratings

NH = Lean D --> Toss-up
NV = Lean D --> Toss-up
VA = Likely D --> Safe D
OR = Safe D --> Likely D


Update 7/27 - New Ratings

NH = Toss-up --> Lean R
OR = Likely D --> Lean D
NV = Toss-up --> Lean R


Update 7/30 - New Ratings

PA = Toss-up --> Lean D
OR = Lean D --> Toss-up
NH = Lean R --> Toss-up
ME-02 = Lean R --> Toss-up
VA = Safe D --> Likely D


Update 8/1 - New Ratings

UT = Likely R --> Safe R
OR = Toss-up --> Lean D
NH= Toss-up --> Lean R
ME-02= Toss-up --> Lean R
MI = Lean D --> Toss-up
WA = Safe D --> Likely D
PA = Lean D --> Toss-up
MN = Likely D --> Lean D
WI = Likely D --> Lean D


Update 8/3 - New Ratings

UT = Safe R --> Likely R
MS = Safe R --> Likely R
MN = Lean D --> Likely D
MI = Toss-up --> Lean D
PA = Toss-up --> Likely D
NH = Lean R --> Lean D
ME-02 = Lean R --> Toss-up
NV = Lean R --> Toss-up
NC = Lean R --> Toss-up
OH = Lean R --> Toss-up


Update 8/4 - New Ratings

NC = Toss-up --> Lean R

Update 8/5 - New Ratings

NC = Lean R --> Lean D
AZ = Lean R --> Toss-up
GA = Likely R --> Toss-up
UT = Likely R --> Lean R
FL = Lean R --> Toss-up
IA = Lean R --> Toss-up


Update 8/8 - New Ratings

AZ = Toss-up --> Lean R
GA = Toss-up --> Lean R
NC = Lean D --> Toss-up


Update 8/12 - New Ratings

NC = Toss-up --> Lean R
TX = Safe R --> Likely R
UT = Lean R --> Likely R
OR = Lean D --> Likely D
MI = Lean D --> Likely D
WI = Lean D --> Likely D
WA = Likely D --> Safe D


Update 8/15 - New Ratings

KS - Safe R --> Likely R
SC - Safe R --> Likely R
NE-02 - Likely R --> Lean R
OR - Likely D --> Safe D
MN - Likely D --> Safe D
MO - Likely R --> Lean R
NH - Lean D --> Likely D
SD - Safe R --> Likely R
NC - Lean R --> Toss-up


Update 8/18 - New Ratings

MS = Likely R --> Safe R
ND = Safe R --> Likely R
MT = Safe R --> Likely R
NC = Toss-up --> Lean D
FL = Toss-up --> Lean D
OH = Toss-up --> Lean D
ME-02 = Toss-up --> Lean D
NE-02 = Lean R --> Toss-up
NE-01 = Safe R --> Likely R


Update 8/21 - New Ratings

NE-02 = Toss-up --> Lean R
KS = Likely R --> Safe R
MT = Likely R --> Safe R
ND = Likely R --> Safe R
SD = Likely R --> Safe R
NC = Lean D --> Lean R
OR = Safe D --> Likely D
ME-02 = Lean D --> Toss-up
MN = Safe D --> Likely D
NE-01 = Lean R --> Likely R
MI = Likely D --> Lean D
WI = Likely D --> Lean D
NH = Likely D --> Lean D


Update 9/2 - New Ratings

IA = Toss-up --> Lean R
PA = Likely D --> Lean D
NH = Lean D --> Likely D
ME-02 = Toss-up --> Lean R
VA = Likely D --> Toss-up
MO = Lean R --> Likely R
NE-02 = Lean R --> Likely R
UT = Likely R --> Lean R


Update 9/8 - New Ratings

CO = Likely D --> Lean D
VA = Toss-up --> Lean D
NH = Likely D --> Lean D
FL = Toss-up --> Lean R
UT = Lean R --> Likely R
NJ = Safe D --> Likely D
« Last Edit: September 08, 2016, 07:06:34 pm by Spark498 »Logged
Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #39 on: July 14, 2016, 11:29:12 pm »

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olowakandi
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« Reply #40 on: July 15, 2016, 02:37:42 pm »

PA will vote D
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Special K
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« Reply #41 on: July 17, 2016, 10:29:25 am »



Clinton: 200
Trump: 142
Toss-up: 196




Clinton: 358
Trump: 180
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #42 on: July 17, 2016, 10:51:59 pm »



Clinton: 200
Trump: 142
Toss-up: 196

This is not a serious map. Indiana a Toss-Up?
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #43 on: August 05, 2016, 02:04:15 am »

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« Last Edit: August 05, 2016, 02:06:32 am by Dwarven Dragon »Logged
LLR
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« Reply #44 on: August 05, 2016, 06:45:07 am »

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Idaho, Montana, and South Dakota are Lean R and South Carolina is Safe R!? This hurts my head...
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LLR
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« Reply #45 on: August 07, 2016, 07:27:08 am »

North Carolina is currently 30% R on the prediction map Tongue
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #46 on: August 07, 2016, 11:53:27 am »

Arizona is now a toss-up
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NV less likely to flip than FL
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« Reply #47 on: August 08, 2016, 11:44:09 am »

North Carolina has flipped to Clinton in the aggregate prediction.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #48 on: August 09, 2016, 05:23:22 pm »

I'm going to do a new one of these for all the changes that have come from the recent week or so in Clinton's direction.

Clinton vs Trump Ratings

Safe D: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, ME-01, MD, MA, NJ, NM, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA
Likely D: CO, ME-02, MI, MN, NH, PA, VA, WI
Lean D: FL, NV, OH
Toss-Up: AZ, IA, NE-02, NC
Lean R: GA, MO
Likely R: AK, IN, MT, NE-01, SC, TX
Safe R: AL, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, NE-03, ND, OK, SD, TN, UT, WV, WY

Safe D: 190 EVs
Likely D: 83 EVs
Lean D: 53 EVs
Toss-Up: 33 EVs
Lean R: 26 EVs
Likely R: 65 EVs
Safe R: 88 EVs

Democratic: 326 EVs
Toss-Up: 33 EVs
Republican: 179 EVs

Atlas Prediction

Ratings I'm stuck on: Nevada (Lean D vs Likely D), both Dakotas (Safe R vs Likely R), Texas (Safe R vs Likely R), Indiana (Likely R vs Lean R). Particularly because we haven't seen polls from many places other than battlegrounds. Nevada and Indiana particularly look weird, but I may update them in the coming weeks.

Overall Vote Prediction

Clinton: 50%
Trump: 44%
Johnson: 4%
Other: 2%

Rating: Likely D, bellwether: Colorado, Pennsylvania

August 16th Update

AZ: Lean R --> Toss-Up
TX: Safe R --> Likely R

August 23rd Update

UT: Likely R --> Safe R

September 9th Update

IA: Lean D --> Toss-Up

Changed Overall Vote Prediction
« Last Edit: September 09, 2016, 09:26:28 pm by ElectionsGuy »Logged
Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
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« Reply #49 on: August 11, 2016, 12:45:31 pm »

Img



WI and PA move to Lean D, NE-2 moves to a Toss-Up, SC no longer safe for Trump

Even if Trump carries all the Toss-Ups, Clinton still wins, 273-265.

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