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|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Election Predictions (Moderator: muon2)
| | |-+  2016 Presidential Predictions (General)
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Latest 2016 Predictions (Highest Scores)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
Dav64 (R-NC)MapProfile 11-07 1 R +54 260 (+54) 278 (-54) 0 (0) 0
TexasDemocrat (G-TX)MapProfile 11-07 2 R +54 260 (+54) 278 (-54) 0 (0) 0
Mark Warner 08 (I-AUT)MapProfile 11-07 1 R +60 266 (+60) 272 (-60) 0 (0) 0
JonathanSwift (R-GA)MapProfile 11-07 32 R +119 325 (+119) 213 (-119) 0 (0) 0
Sheliak6 (I-GA)Map 11-07 20 R +74 280 (+74) 258 (-74) 0 (0) 0
dfwlibertylover (I-TX)MapProfile 11-07 4 R +54 260 (+54) 278 (-54) 0 (0) 0
AHDuke99 (R-SC)MapProfile 11-07 1 R +25 231 (+25) 307 (-25) 0 (0) 0
dmurphy1984 (R-NY)Map 11-07 1 R +54 260 (+54) 278 (-54) 0 (0) 0
Averroes (I-NY)MapProfile 11-08 21 R +39 245 (+39) 293 (-39) 0 (0) 0
Byrhtferth (I-GBR)MapProfile 10-05 1 R +60 266 (+60) 272 (-60) 0 (0) 0
Latest 2016 Predictions (Most Recent Entries)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
Ruby2014 (I-OH)MapProfile 11-08 11 R +144 350 (+144) 188 (-144) 0 (0) 0
HagridOfTheDeep (D-BC)MapProfile 11-08 29 D +10 196 (-10) 342 (+10) 0 (0) 0
kyc0705 (O-NJ)MapProfile 11-08 7 R +9 215 (+9) 323 (-9) 0 (0) 0
skolodji (D-CA)MapProfile 11-08 3 D +10 196 (-10) 342 (+10) 0 (0) 0
Ryne (R-WA)MapProfile 11-08 9 R +84 290 (+84) 248 (-84) 0 (0) 0
sbane1 (I-CA)Map 11-08 2 D +20 186 (-20) 352 (+20) 0 (0) 0
Clinton1996 (D-GA)MapProfile 11-08 3 D +10 196 (-10) 342 (+10) 0 (0) 0
Shadowlord88 (D-KY)MapProfile 11-08 3 D +9 197 (-9) 341 (+9) 0 (0) 0
Beaver2 (--VA)MapProfile 11-08 5 R +9 215 (+9) 323 (-9) 0 (0) 0
ahfink (O-IL)Map 11-08 1 R +59 265 (+59) 273 (-59) 0 (0) 0
Latest 2016 Predictions (Most Recent Comments)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
bluemcdowell (D-WV)
by man_of_honor885 on 2018-11-06 @ 06:32:28
Map 11-07 290 R +10 216 (+10) 322 (-10) 0 (0) 12
Spenstar3D (D-NY)
by boatfullogoats on 2018-10-08 @ 03:19:40
MapProfile 11-07 1 R +70 276 (+70) 262 (-70) 0 (0) 1
RobLewis (R-AZ)
by boatfullogoats on 2018-10-08 @ 03:18:15
MapProfile 10-05 1 R +106 312 (+106) 226 (-106) 0 (0) 2
slick67 (R-SC)
by KnuxMaster368 on 2018-09-13 @ 11:03:34
Map 10-21 1 R +101 307 (+101) 231 (-101) 0 (0) 1
Simfan34 (I-NY)
by firstdegreburns on 2017-10-24 @ 19:55:03
MapProfile 12-14 2 D +178 11 (-195) 510 (+178) 17 (+17) 1
norlion (R-FL)
by jaichind on 2016-12-05 @ 07:50:32
Map 12-02 1 R +93 299 (+93) 239 (-93) 0 (0) 3
Abe_Washington (R-NY)
by Abe_Washington on 2016-11-18 @ 12:00:43
MapProfile 07-30 4 R +139 345 (+139) 193 (-139) 0 (0) 2
colin (R-ON)
by colin on 2016-11-16 @ 08:36:08
Map 11-07 9 R +60 266 (+60) 272 (-60) 0 (0) 1
wingindy (I-IN)
by bluemcdowell on 2016-11-12 @ 20:22:34
Map 07-25 11 R +94 300 (+94) 238 (-94) 0 (0) 6
ReaganClinton16 (I-CT)
by ReaganClinton16 on 2016-11-09 @ 18:23:58
MapProfile 11-08 14 R +9 215 (+9) 323 (-9) 0 (0) 1
Latest Discussion Topics
Author Topic: 2016 Presidential Predictions (General)  (Read 78394 times)
LLR
LongLiveRock
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« Reply #50 on: September 03, 2016, 02:12:25 pm »

SC is still safe R on the prediction map! Sad!

My Map as of now:

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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
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« Reply #51 on: September 07, 2016, 10:30:18 am »

Hillary on the downswing:

PA - Lean D to Toss-Up
NJ - Safe D to Lean D
RI - Safe D to Lean D
ME-2 - Lean D to Toss-Up
ME-AL - Safe D to Lean D
NE-2 - Toss-Up to Lean R

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ElectionsGuy
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E: 7.87, S: -6.96

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« Reply #52 on: September 07, 2016, 11:06:36 am »

Hillary on the downswing:

PA - Lean D to Toss-Up
NJ - Safe D to Lean D
RI - Safe D to Lean D

ME-2 - Lean D to Toss-Up
ME-AL - Safe D to Lean D
NE-2 - Toss-Up to Lean R

Img


Oh give me a break. Do you actually believe those Washington Post numbers that much?
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
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« Reply #53 on: September 07, 2016, 12:23:57 pm »

Hillary on the downswing:

PA - Lean D to Toss-Up
NJ - Safe D to Lean D
RI - Safe D to Lean D

ME-2 - Lean D to Toss-Up
ME-AL - Safe D to Lean D
NE-2 - Toss-Up to Lean R

Img


Oh give me a break. Do you actually believe those Washington Post numbers that much?


Both them and Emerson found similar results.
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JerryArkansas
jerryarkansas
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« Reply #54 on: September 07, 2016, 06:37:57 pm »

Hillary on the downswing:

PA - Lean D to Toss-Up
NJ - Safe D to Lean D
RI - Safe D to Lean D
ME-2 - Lean D to Toss-Up
ME-AL - Safe D to Lean D
NE-2 - Toss-Up to Lean R

Img



Dude if you going to go with the crap polls in some states, do it in all of them.  Texas should be tossup and the like.  Or are you just the huge hack that you keep trying to tell us your not?
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
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« Reply #55 on: September 07, 2016, 09:01:22 pm »

Hillary on the downswing:

PA - Lean D to Toss-Up
NJ - Safe D to Lean D
RI - Safe D to Lean D
ME-2 - Lean D to Toss-Up
ME-AL - Safe D to Lean D
NE-2 - Toss-Up to Lean R

Img



Dude if you going to go with the crap polls in some states, do it in all of them.  Texas should be tossup and the like.  Or are you just the huge hack that you keep trying to tell us your not?

I've said I won't believe #BattlegroundTX until it actually happens on election day, and not a moment before. And how am I a Trump hack when I rate SD, MT, ID, and IN as only Lean R?
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LLR
LongLiveRock
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« Reply #56 on: September 07, 2016, 09:07:07 pm »

^^ Yeah, I agree. You're just incredibly stupid.
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NV less likely to flip than FL
xingkerui
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« Reply #57 on: September 09, 2016, 01:39:44 am »

What the heck, I'll post mine.



There are several states that are somewhere between ratings:
Between Safe R and Likely R: AK, IN, KS, MT, NE-01, SD, TX
Between Likely R and Lean R: MO
Between Toss-Up and Lean D: FL, NC, OH
Between Lean D and Likely D: ME-02
Between Likely D and Safe D: MI, MN
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Deblano
EdgarAllenYOLO
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« Reply #58 on: September 11, 2016, 12:43:27 pm »

My Confidence Map

Img

Clinton: 268EV
Trump: 219EV


My Prediction Map (My pessimism makes me believe that this will be a surprise close race.)

Img

Clinton: 278EV
Trump 260EV
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
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« Reply #59 on: September 12, 2016, 10:16:00 am »

Trump locks in UT/ID/AK.

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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
IndyRep
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« Reply #60 on: September 12, 2016, 03:42:08 pm »



Clinton: 242
Trump: 190
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
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« Reply #61 on: September 15, 2016, 02:26:44 pm »

SC to Safe R, Michigan to Toss-Up.

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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
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« Reply #62 on: September 15, 2016, 03:06:12 pm »

CO/WI to Toss-Up, AZ to  Lean R.

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NV less likely to flip than FL
xingkerui
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« Reply #63 on: September 15, 2016, 07:18:09 pm »



FL: Lean D -> Toss-Up
ME-02: Likely D -> Lean D
NC: Lean D -> Toss-Up
PA: Likely D -> Lean D
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FairBol
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« Reply #64 on: September 18, 2016, 12:48:27 am »

Here's my current prediction, with no tossups. 

Img


Sad
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FairBol
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« Reply #65 on: September 18, 2016, 12:49:29 am »

BTW, that's Clinton 281, Trump 254.  :-/
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
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« Reply #66 on: September 20, 2016, 10:19:21 am »

ME to Tossup, 2nd district is now Lean R. MT/IN lock in.

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NV less likely to flip than FL
xingkerui
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« Reply #67 on: September 21, 2016, 06:58:01 pm »



AK: Likely R -> Safe R
AZ: Toss-Up -> Lean R
CO: Likely D -> Lean D
IN: Likely R -> Safe R
ME-02: Lean D -> Toss-Up
MT: Likely R -> Safe R
PA: Lean D -> Likely D
WI: Likely D -> Lean D

NV: Likely D -> Titanium R, since demographics, voting history, and past polling results are irrelevant. Trump's casino resort machines and uneducateds are all that matter. He'll win in a landslide, and take Heck with him.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
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« Reply #68 on: September 24, 2016, 03:41:44 pm »

^ You're really taking this meme of yours to extremes. I obviously don't think that Trump is going to win 90% of the vote in NV or that it the state is safe for him. I'm just saying that when we have a wealth of polls showing something to be a battleground, we should consider it to be a battleground. Betting on a past error showing up again is very dean chambers esque.
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NV less likely to flip than FL
xingkerui
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« Reply #69 on: September 24, 2016, 05:51:27 pm »

^ You're really taking this meme of yours to extremes. I obviously don't think that Trump is going to win 90% of the vote in NV or that it the state is safe for him. I'm just saying that when we have a wealth of polls showing something to be a battleground, we should consider it to be a battleground. Betting on a past error showing up again is very dean chambers esque.

I've explained my reasoning several times, and I'm guessing most people on this forum don't want to hear it again. Go ahead and believe that NV is a Toss-Up if you like, but if it doesn't end up close on election day, many people on this forum are going to have to eat a healthy dose of humble pie.
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
IndyRep
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« Reply #70 on: September 24, 2016, 11:01:09 pm »

^ You're really taking this meme of yours to extremes. I obviously don't think that Trump is going to win 90% of the vote in NV or that it the state is safe for him. I'm just saying that when we have a wealth of polls showing something to be a battleground, we should consider it to be a battleground. Betting on a past error showing up again is very dean chambers esque.

I've explained my reasoning several times, and I'm guessing most people on this forum don't want to hear it again. Go ahead and believe that NV is a Toss-Up if you like, but if it doesn't end up close on election day, many people on this forum are going to have to eat a healthy dose of humble pie.

But what if it DOES end up close? Will you apologize then? Tongue
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NV less likely to flip than FL
xingkerui
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« Reply #71 on: September 24, 2016, 11:12:51 pm »

^ You're really taking this meme of yours to extremes. I obviously don't think that Trump is going to win 90% of the vote in NV or that it the state is safe for him. I'm just saying that when we have a wealth of polls showing something to be a battleground, we should consider it to be a battleground. Betting on a past error showing up again is very dean chambers esque.

I've explained my reasoning several times, and I'm guessing most people on this forum don't want to hear it again. Go ahead and believe that NV is a Toss-Up if you like, but if it doesn't end up close on election day, many people on this forum are going to have to eat a healthy dose of humble pie.

But what if it DOES end up close? Will you apologize then? Tongue

Apologize for what? I didn't realize wrong predictions merited apologies. If it's somehow close (and the PV is close too,) then I'll admit that, at least for the time being, it is a swing state. Looking at the math, though, Trump would have to win white voters by at least a 2:1 margin (it was already 56-43 Romney in 2012), and probably win nearly 75% of white men (considering that the gender gap will be larger this year.) That's obviously not going to happen...

Clearly his Casinoresortmachine™ will allow him to win 93% of white voters. Wink
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Lok
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« Reply #72 on: September 25, 2016, 06:17:38 am »



IA: Tilt R
OH: Pure Toss-Up
NC: Tilt D
FL: Pure Toss-Up
NE-02 Tilt R
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
IndyRep
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« Reply #73 on: September 28, 2016, 01:54:29 pm »



Clinton 233
Trump 197
Tossup 108
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
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« Reply #74 on: September 30, 2016, 11:29:06 am »

Nevada and Michigan return to Lean D.

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