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|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Election Predictions (Moderator: muon2)
| | |-+  2016 Presidential Predictions (General)
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Latest 2016 Predictions (Highest Scores)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
Dav64 (R-NC)MapProfile 11-07 1 R +54 260 (+54) 278 (-54) 0 (0) 0
TexasDemocrat (G-TX)MapProfile 11-07 2 R +54 260 (+54) 278 (-54) 0 (0) 0
Mark Warner 08 (I-AUT)MapProfile 11-07 1 R +60 266 (+60) 272 (-60) 0 (0) 0
JonathanSwift (R-GA)MapProfile 11-07 32 R +119 325 (+119) 213 (-119) 0 (0) 0
Sheliak6 (I-GA)Map 11-07 20 R +74 280 (+74) 258 (-74) 0 (0) 0
dfwlibertylover (I-TX)MapProfile 11-07 4 R +54 260 (+54) 278 (-54) 0 (0) 0
AHDuke99 (R-SC)MapProfile 11-07 1 R +25 231 (+25) 307 (-25) 0 (0) 0
dmurphy1984 (R-NY)Map 11-07 1 R +54 260 (+54) 278 (-54) 0 (0) 0
Averroes (I-NY)MapProfile 11-08 21 R +39 245 (+39) 293 (-39) 0 (0) 0
Byrhtferth (I-GBR)MapProfile 10-05 1 R +60 266 (+60) 272 (-60) 0 (0) 0
Latest 2016 Predictions (Most Recent Entries)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
Ruby2014 (I-OH)MapProfile 11-08 11 R +144 350 (+144) 188 (-144) 0 (0) 0
HagridOfTheDeep (D-BC)MapProfile 11-08 29 D +10 196 (-10) 342 (+10) 0 (0) 0
kyc0705 (O-NJ)MapProfile 11-08 7 R +9 215 (+9) 323 (-9) 0 (0) 0
skolodji (D-CA)MapProfile 11-08 3 D +10 196 (-10) 342 (+10) 0 (0) 0
Ryne (R-WA)MapProfile 11-08 9 R +84 290 (+84) 248 (-84) 0 (0) 0
sbane1 (I-CA)Map 11-08 2 D +20 186 (-20) 352 (+20) 0 (0) 0
Clinton1996 (D-GA)MapProfile 11-08 3 D +10 196 (-10) 342 (+10) 0 (0) 0
Shadowlord88 (D-KY)MapProfile 11-08 3 D +9 197 (-9) 341 (+9) 0 (0) 0
Beaver2 (--VA)MapProfile 11-08 5 R +9 215 (+9) 323 (-9) 0 (0) 0
ahfink (O-IL)Map 11-08 1 R +59 265 (+59) 273 (-59) 0 (0) 0
Latest 2016 Predictions (Most Recent Comments)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
bluemcdowell (D-WV)
by man_of_honor885 on 2018-11-06 @ 06:32:28
Map 11-07 290 R +10 216 (+10) 322 (-10) 0 (0) 12
Spenstar3D (D-NY)
by boatfullogoats on 2018-10-08 @ 03:19:40
MapProfile 11-07 1 R +70 276 (+70) 262 (-70) 0 (0) 1
RobLewis (R-AZ)
by boatfullogoats on 2018-10-08 @ 03:18:15
MapProfile 10-05 1 R +106 312 (+106) 226 (-106) 0 (0) 2
slick67 (R-SC)
by KnuxMaster368 on 2018-09-13 @ 11:03:34
Map 10-21 1 R +101 307 (+101) 231 (-101) 0 (0) 1
Simfan34 (I-NY)
by firstdegreburns on 2017-10-24 @ 19:55:03
MapProfile 12-14 2 D +178 11 (-195) 510 (+178) 17 (+17) 1
norlion (R-FL)
by jaichind on 2016-12-05 @ 07:50:32
Map 12-02 1 R +93 299 (+93) 239 (-93) 0 (0) 3
Abe_Washington (R-NY)
by Abe_Washington on 2016-11-18 @ 12:00:43
MapProfile 07-30 4 R +139 345 (+139) 193 (-139) 0 (0) 2
colin (R-ON)
by colin on 2016-11-16 @ 08:36:08
Map 11-07 9 R +60 266 (+60) 272 (-60) 0 (0) 1
wingindy (I-IN)
by bluemcdowell on 2016-11-12 @ 20:22:34
Map 07-25 11 R +94 300 (+94) 238 (-94) 0 (0) 6
ReaganClinton16 (I-CT)
by ReaganClinton16 on 2016-11-09 @ 18:23:58
MapProfile 11-08 14 R +9 215 (+9) 323 (-9) 0 (0) 1
Latest Discussion Topics
Author Topic: 2016 Presidential Predictions (General)  (Read 78370 times)
NHI
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« Reply #75 on: September 30, 2016, 08:51:00 pm »




Clinton 298
Trump 240
At this moment 9/30/16: I'll check back in one month.
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« Reply #76 on: September 30, 2016, 09:52:31 pm »




Clinton 298
Trump 240
At this moment 9/30/16: I'll check back in one month.

Likely R Colorado?!?
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NV less likely to flip than FL
xingkerui
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« Reply #77 on: October 01, 2016, 11:38:14 am »



Gonna be a bit bold with my ratings.

CO: Lean D -> Likely D
FL: Toss-Up -> Lean D
MI: Likely D -> Safe D
MN: Likely D -> Safe D
MO: Likely R -> Safe R
VA: Likely D -> Safe D
WI: Lean D -> Likely D

(NV: Titanium R -> "Likely" D)
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Kylar
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« Reply #78 on: October 02, 2016, 12:04:55 am »

I'm going to say that it will end up being
Trump 46%
Hillary 41%
Johnson 8.5%
Stein 4%
Mcmullin 1%
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« Reply #79 on: October 02, 2016, 02:25:16 am »

NM: Safe D --> Lean D

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« Reply #80 on: October 03, 2016, 12:14:22 pm »

CO: Toss-Up --> Lean D

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« Reply #81 on: October 03, 2016, 08:43:25 pm »




Clinton 298
Trump 240
At this moment 9/30/16: I'll check back in one month.

Likely R Colorado?!?

I would change that based on the latest polling!
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« Reply #82 on: October 03, 2016, 11:21:31 pm »

PA: Toss-Up --> Lean D
RI: Lean D --> Safe D

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Trump can afford to lose ME-AL (he needs ME-2 though), but other than that he needs to sweep all the Toss-Ups to win.
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« Reply #83 on: October 05, 2016, 07:13:17 pm »

FL: Toss-Up ---> Lean D
AZ: Lean R ---> Toss-Up
NE-2: Lean R ---> Toss-Up

#Clintonover270

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« Last Edit: October 06, 2016, 12:38:44 am by Dwarven Dragon »Logged
ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #84 on: October 06, 2016, 12:20:57 am »



Safe Clinton: 190
Likely Clinton: 62
Lean Clinton: 27
Toss-Up: 69
Lean Trump: 27
Likely Trump: 27
Safe Trump: 136

Clinton: 279

Trump: 190
Toss-Up: 69

Overall: Lean Clinton
Tipping Point: Pennsylvania
Bellwether: Pennsylvania
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heatcharger
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« Reply #85 on: October 06, 2016, 04:17:08 pm »

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« Reply #86 on: October 07, 2016, 02:31:34 pm »

WI: Toss-Up to Lean D

#Clintonover300

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« Reply #87 on: October 07, 2016, 10:39:07 pm »

Post-assaultgate:

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heatcharger
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« Reply #88 on: October 08, 2016, 10:07:40 pm »

If I had to guess what the electoral map looks like at this particular moment in time:



>60% = Safe
>40% = Likely
>30% = Lean
>20% = Tilt (AZ and GA are Tilt if you couldn't tell)
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xingkerui
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« Reply #89 on: October 09, 2016, 12:48:06 am »



Allowing for the possibility of Trump completely imploding, without assuming it to be likely. Several previously safe states for Trump are now likely, other changes:

AZ: Lean R -> Toss-Up
NH: Likely D -> Safe D
NC: Toss-Up -> Lean D
WI: Likely D -> Safe D
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« Reply #90 on: October 09, 2016, 01:13:26 pm »

The Atlas predictions are as always a lagging indicator. The following predictions need less than 20 changes in opinion among the 326 predictions to alter status as of right now:

Arkansas:
R 50% to R 60%: 12 changes

Arizona:
R 40% to R 50% : 14 changes
R Lean to Tossup: 4 changes

Iowa:
D 40% to D 30%: 7 changes
D 40% to R 30%: 8 changes
D 40% to R 40%: 11 changes

Kentucky:
R 60% to R 50%: 18 changes

Minnesota:
D Lean to D Strong: 10 changes

Nebraska-2:
R 50% to R 40%: 18 changes
R Lean to Tossup: 9 changes
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« Reply #91 on: October 12, 2016, 09:39:10 am »

ME-2: Lean R ---> Toss-Up
ME-AL: Toss-Up ---> Lean D
OH: Toss-Up ---> Lean D
MI: Lean D ---> Safe D

Clinton landslide incoming!

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« Reply #92 on: October 12, 2016, 12:25:31 pm »

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Utah: Lean R ---> Toss-Up
Idaho: Safe R ---> Lean R

Just how big is this landslide going to be?

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xingkerui
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« Reply #93 on: October 12, 2016, 05:07:02 pm »

^I highly doubt Trump is in any trouble in Idaho. 25% Mormon is not the same as 60% Mormon.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #94 on: October 13, 2016, 05:30:09 pm »

NC: Toss-Up to Lean D

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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #95 on: October 17, 2016, 01:35:11 pm »

OH back to Toss-Up, ND/SD lock in for Trump

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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #96 on: October 19, 2016, 10:37:58 pm »

Post-Debate: Clinton locks in Nevada, Colorado, Minnesota

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xingkerui
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« Reply #97 on: October 20, 2016, 11:58:51 am »

Barring something extreme, Clinton has this.



AK: Likely R -> Lean R
CO: Likely D -> Safe D
FL: Lean D -> Likely D
GA: Lean R -> Toss-Up
NV: Likely D -> Safe D (should have done this a long time ago)
OH: Toss-Up -> Lean D
PA: Likely D -> Safe D
UT: Likely R -> Toss-Up
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« Reply #98 on: October 24, 2016, 12:39:16 pm »

NC: Lean D -> Toss-Up
GA: Lean R -> Toss-Up

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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #99 on: October 27, 2016, 10:24:01 pm »

ID locks in.

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