2016 Presidential Predictions (General)

[Mr. Illini]

Walker/Rubio: 288 EV, 50%

Oops

[big bad fab]

A pity Carson and Christie have the same colours in the 2016 Rep Primary prediction.

[The_Doctor]

How do you make a prediction and get it added?

Mine is 299-239 R, 49-49% R.

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Co 40-50% D
FL 50-50% R
Pa 50-50% D
NH tossup to Lean D

Clinton-Castro 272-266 v Trump
51/49

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Co 40-50% D
FL 50-50% R
Pa 50-50% D
NH tossup to Lean D

Clinton-Castro 272-266 v Trump
51/49

OC, does that hold if Rubio or Cruz is the nominee?

[Meclazine for Israel]

Nice one. California and New York look like real killers for Trump.

Not a lot of room left when you start 84 points down.

[Harry Hayfield]

Apologies for missing North Dakota's GOP primary over the weekend. My grandmother, who has just had a hip operation, was suffering from a low sodium count (and may have been ever since she was discharged) and therefore I have been more concerned about her. I am pleased to report that she is now recovering and wanted to explain the lack of a prediction for that event.

[ElectionsGuy]

Clinton vs Trump Prognostication

Safe D: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, ME-01, MD, MA, NJ, NM, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA
Likely D: CO, MI, MN, NH, WI
Lean D: FL, IA, ME-02, NV, PA, VA
Toss-Up: NE-02, NC, OH
Lean R: AZ, GA
Likely R: AK, IN, MO, MT, UT
Safe R: AL, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, NE-01, NE-03, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, WV, WY

Safe D: 190 EVs
Likely D: 49 EVs
Lean D: 75 EVs
Toss-Up: 34 EVs
Lean R: 27 EVs
Likely R: 33 EVs
Safe R: 130 EVs

Democratic: 314 EVs
Toss-Up: 34 EVs
Republican: 190 EVs

Overall Vote Prediction

Clinton: 51%
Trump: 44%
Johnson: 3%
Other: 2%

Overall Rating: Lean D (bellwether: PA, NV or IA)

Most likely result in my view is a repeat of 2012 except with North Carolina going narrowly to Clinton. I am perfectly flexible to changing ratings with new polling data, shifts in the race, or worldwide/nationwide events.

Atlas Prediction

May 31st Update

Likely D --> Lean D: ME-02, NH
Toss-Up --> Lean R: NC
Lean R --> Likely R: MO
Likely R --> Safe R: TX, UT

Temporarily, the race has moved in more favorable conditions for Trump, with a slight Clinton advantage still. My atlas prediction remains the same, but a Hillary win of 3-6% is more likely now with the current conditions.

July 5th Update

Lean R --> Toss-Up: NC
Safe R --> Likely R: UT

Added Overall Vote Prediction

August 1st Update

Lean D --> Likely D: CO
Likely D --> Lean D: NV

Updated Overall Vote Prediction

So Nevada is showing signs of being more competitive than previously thought. I will give the benefit of the doubt to Democrats since they are usually underestimated in the state polling and data, so I do not plan on ever moving to toss-up, but I can move it Likely D again. Colorado is because three polls came out averaging Clinton +10, and the state has one of the most college educated electorates in the nation, terrible news for Trump. Of course, flexible and can move back to Lean D. I do feel weird having Nevada more competitive than Colorado, but have to go with it for now.

8/6/16 Update

GA: Likely R --> Lean R
NH: Lean D --> Likely D

Updated Overall Vote Prediction

[LLR]

Clinton vs. Trump

Dems: 345
Pubs: 138
Tossup: 55

Dems:
Strong: 195
Likely: 41
Lean: 109

Tossup: 55

Pubs:
Lean: 16
Likely: 6
Strong: 116

Overall: Likely D

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With the latest poll showing TRUMP at 32% among Hispanics nationally, I now add Florida to his arsenal and therefore believe he would win if the election was held today.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

New maps following Trump racism comment. Big leg up for Clinton.

[Spark]

State Ratings

Clinton vs Trump

Safe D: CA, WA, NM, HI, NY, MA, IL, MD, DE, VT, CT, RI, ME
Likely D: MN, OR, NJ
Lean D: WI, MI, PA, NH, CO, VA
Toss-Up: NV, OH
Lean R: AZ, GA, NE-02, NC, ME-02, IA, FL
Likely R: MO, UT, TX, SD, KS, SC, MT, ND, NE-01
Safe R: AK, ID, WY, OK, LA, AR, AL, TN, KY, WV, IN, MS

Safe D: 166 EVs
Likely D: 31 EVs
Lean D: 75 EVs
Toss-Up: 24 EVs
Lean R: 79 EVs
Likely R: 55 EVs
Safe R: 108 EVs

Democratic: 272 EVs
Republican: 242 EVs
Toss-Up: 24 EVs

Popular Vote Prediction:

Clinton: 47.6%
Trump: 48.2%
Johnson: 4%
Stein: 0.2%
Other: 0.0%

Overall Rating: Toss-up (bellwether: PA or IA)

Update 7/9- New Ratings

VA = Likely D --> Lean D
NV = Lean D --> Toss-up
ME-02 = Lean D --> Toss=up

Update 7/11 - New Ratings

NV = Toss-up --> Lean D

Update 7/13 - New Ratings

AZ = Lean R --> Likely R
IA = Toss-up --> Lean R
PA = Toss-up --> Lean R
FL = Toss-up --> Lean R
CO = Toss-up --> Lean D

Update 7/18 - New Ratings

IA = Lean R --> Toss-up
PA = Lean R --> Toss-up
NH = Toss-up --> Lean D
OH = Toss-up --> Lean R

Update 7/22 - New Ratings

IA = Toss-up --> Lean R
ME-02 = Toss-up --> Lean R
VA = Lean D --> Likely D

Update 7/26 - New Ratings

NH = Lean D --> Toss-up
NV = Lean D --> Toss-up
VA = Likely D --> Safe D
OR = Safe D --> Likely D

Update 7/27 - New Ratings

NH = Toss-up --> Lean R
OR = Likely D --> Lean D
NV = Toss-up --> Lean R

Update 7/30 - New Ratings

PA = Toss-up --> Lean D
OR = Lean D --> Toss-up
NH = Lean R --> Toss-up
ME-02 = Lean R --> Toss-up
VA = Safe D --> Likely D

Update 8/1 - New Ratings

UT = Likely R --> Safe R
OR = Toss-up --> Lean D
NH= Toss-up --> Lean R
ME-02= Toss-up --> Lean R
MI = Lean D --> Toss-up
WA = Safe D --> Likely D
PA = Lean D --> Toss-up
MN = Likely D --> Lean D
WI = Likely D --> Lean D

Update 8/3 - New Ratings

UT = Safe R --> Likely R
MS = Safe R --> Likely R
MN = Lean D --> Likely D
MI = Toss-up --> Lean D
PA = Toss-up --> Likely D
NH = Lean R --> Lean D
ME-02 = Lean R --> Toss-up
NV = Lean R --> Toss-up
NC = Lean R --> Toss-up
OH = Lean R --> Toss-up

Update 8/4 - New Ratings

NC = Toss-up --> Lean R

Update 8/5 - New Ratings

NC = Lean R --> Lean D
AZ = Lean R --> Toss-up
GA = Likely R --> Toss-up
UT = Likely R --> Lean R
FL = Lean R --> Toss-up
IA = Lean R --> Toss-up

Update 8/8 - New Ratings

AZ = Toss-up --> Lean R
GA = Toss-up --> Lean R
NC = Lean D --> Toss-up

Update 8/12 - New Ratings

NC = Toss-up --> Lean R
TX = Safe R --> Likely R
UT = Lean R --> Likely R
OR = Lean D --> Likely D
MI = Lean D --> Likely D
WI = Lean D --> Likely D
WA = Likely D --> Safe D


Update 8/15 - New Ratings

KS - Safe R --> Likely R
SC - Safe R --> Likely R
NE-02 - Likely R --> Lean R
OR - Likely D --> Safe D
MN - Likely D --> Safe D
MO - Likely R --> Lean R
NH - Lean D --> Likely D
SD - Safe R --> Likely R
NC - Lean R --> Toss-up

Update 8/18 - New Ratings

MS = Likely R --> Safe R
ND = Safe R --> Likely R
MT = Safe R --> Likely R
NC = Toss-up --> Lean D
FL = Toss-up --> Lean D
OH = Toss-up --> Lean D
ME-02 = Toss-up --> Lean D
NE-02 = Lean R --> Toss-up
NE-01 = Safe R --> Likely R

Update 8/21 - New Ratings

NE-02 = Toss-up --> Lean R
KS = Likely R --> Safe R
MT = Likely R --> Safe R
ND = Likely R --> Safe R
SD = Likely R --> Safe R
NC = Lean D --> Lean R
OR = Safe D --> Likely D
ME-02 = Lean D --> Toss-up
MN = Safe D --> Likely D
NE-01 = Lean R --> Likely R
MI = Likely D --> Lean D
WI = Likely D --> Lean D
NH = Likely D --> Lean D

Update 9/2 - New Ratings

IA = Toss-up --> Lean R
PA = Likely D --> Lean D
NH = Lean D --> Likely D
ME-02 = Toss-up --> Lean R
VA = Likely D --> Toss-up
MO = Lean R --> Likely R
NE-02 = Lean R --> Likely R
UT = Likely R --> Lean R

Update 9/8 - New Ratings

CO = Likely D --> Lean D
VA = Toss-up --> Lean D
NH = Likely D --> Lean D
FL = Toss-up --> Lean R
UT = Lean R --> Likely R
NJ = Safe D --> Likely D

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

PA will vote D

[Inmate Trump]

Clinton: 200
Trump: 142
Toss-up: 196

Clinton: 358
Trump: 180

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Clinton: 200
Trump: 142
Toss-up: 196

This is not a serious map. Indiana a Toss-Up?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

[LLR]

Idaho, Montana, and South Dakota are Lean R and South Carolina is Safe R!? This hurts my head...

[LLR]

North Carolina is currently 30% R on the prediction map

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Arizona is now a toss-up

[Xing]

North Carolina has flipped to Clinton in the aggregate prediction.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm going to do a new one of these for all the changes that have come from the recent week or so in Clinton's direction.

Clinton vs Trump Ratings

Safe D: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, ME-01, MD, MA, NJ, NM, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA
Likely D: CO, ME-02, MI, MN, NH, PA, VA, WI
Lean D: FL, NV, OH
Toss-Up: AZ, IA, NE-02, NC
Lean R: GA, MO
Likely R: AK, IN, MT, NE-01, SC, TX
Safe R: AL, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, NE-03, ND, OK, SD, TN, UT, WV, WY

Safe D: 190 EVs
Likely D: 83 EVs
Lean D: 53 EVs
Toss-Up: 33 EVs
Lean R: 26 EVs
Likely R: 65 EVs
Safe R: 88 EVs

Democratic: 326 EVs
Toss-Up: 33 EVs
Republican: 179 EVs

Atlas Prediction

Ratings I'm stuck on: Nevada (Lean D vs Likely D), both Dakotas (Safe R vs Likely R), Texas (Safe R vs Likely R), Indiana (Likely R vs Lean R). Particularly because we haven't seen polls from many places other than battlegrounds. Nevada and Indiana particularly look weird, but I may update them in the coming weeks.

Overall Vote Prediction

Clinton: 50%
Trump: 44%
Johnson: 4%
Other: 2%

Rating: Likely D, bellwether: Colorado, Pennsylvania

August 16th Update

AZ: Lean R --> Toss-Up
TX: Safe R --> Likely R

August 23rd Update

UT: Likely R --> Safe R

September 9th Update

IA: Lean D --> Toss-Up

Changed Overall Vote Prediction

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WI and PA move to Lean D, NE-2 moves to a Toss-Up, SC no longer safe for Trump

Even if Trump carries all the Toss-Ups, Clinton still wins, 273-265.

[LLR]

SC is still safe R on the prediction map! Sad!

My Map as of now: