Turkish general election, June 7th 2015

[jaichind]

59.9 counted

Party 1   44.4
Party 2   24.0
Party 3   17.2
Party 4   10.1

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Şanlıurfa results a 12-seat behemoth in the southeast of Turkey where the HDP were expected to surge - and so far, it looks like they are.

[Insula Dei]

This is very close but IF HDP gets in, it's very hard to see how AKP gets a majority, right?

[jaichind]

Looks like HDP is projected to win 10.5% according to media projections.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Television Stations are finally starting to display results

[jaichind]

This is very close but IF HDP gets in, it's very hard to see how AKP gets a majority, right?

Yep.  If HDP gets in no way AKP gets majority.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

CNN Turk results right now

[jaichind]

66.8 counted

AKP        43.9
CHP        24.2
MHP       17.1
HDP       10.5

[Insula Dei]

FWIW, Yeni Safak has:

AKP 272
CHP 121
MHP  87
HDP  70

With 66.8% reporting.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Broadcasters are calling a hung parliament that includes the pro-government Peoples' Democracy Party (HDP)

Significant HDP gains on the Turkish Mediterranean coast and the country's southeast regions

As much as 60% of ballot boxes open and counted

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Current results suggest the HDP have nudged into third ahead of the nationalists MHP

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

AK 253
CHP 133
MHP 87
HDP 77

Updated figures

[jaichind]

Current results suggest the HDP have nudged into third ahead of the nationalists MHP

In terms of votes or seats?  Neither seems likely at all.  HDP is projected to get around 70 seats right now and I do not see that changing much when all the votes are in.  I can see its vote share going up from 10.5%.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Current results suggest the HDP have nudged into third ahead of the nationalists MHP

In terms of votes or seats?  Neither seems likely at all.  HDP is projected to get around 70 seats right now and I do not see that changing much when all the votes are in.  I can see its vote share going up from 10.5%.

CNN Turk is showing a higher percentage of votes shared than most of the other stations, http://secim.bugun.com.tr/secim Is also saying the same thing

[jaichind]

72.7 counted

AKP        43.5          268
CHP        24.4          124
MHP       17.1            85
HDP       10.8            73

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

If the AKP is denied a majority, will the other parties form an anti-Erdogan coalition or will one of the opposition parties prop up an AKP minority/form a coalition with the AKP? Or is it too early to tell?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

73,8%

AKP 42.8% 264

CHP 24.7% 126

MHP 17% 85

HDP 11.1% 75

Via CNN Turk

[ag]

If the AKP is denied a majority, will the other parties form an anti-Erdogan coalition or will one of the opposition parties prop up an AKP minority/form a coalition with the AKP? Or is it too early to tell?

Most likely HDP will prop AKP, but not for free. The problem is that HDP and MHP hate each other, and CHP are too Kemalist to find dealing with the Kurds easy. If not for Erdogan, HDP and AKP would be a natural coalition. Hopefully,  HDP will be able to strengthen the non-Erdogan forces in AKP.

[Insula Dei]

If the AKP is denied a majority, will the other parties form an anti-Erdogan coalition or will one of the opposition parties prop up an AKP minority/form a coalition with the AKP? Or is it too early to tell?

My understanding is that it's very difficult to see a broad anti-AKP coalition because that would require the Kurds to work with the Kemalists and the ultra-nationalists, which looks unlikely, but that it is also difficult to see any of them propping up the AKP, especially with the AKP's handling of Kobani in the back of people's minds.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

A minority CHP propped up by mortal enemies the Kurds and the nationalists seems like an unstable idea.

Perhaps we may see Erdogan's patsy PM come into his own? It would be very amusing to see Erdogan's machinations backfire if he simply ends up a powerless idiot in a big house.

[Insula Dei]

If the AKP is denied a majority, will the other parties form an anti-Erdogan coalition or will one of the opposition parties prop up an AKP minority/form a coalition with the AKP? Or is it too early to tell?

Most likely HDP will prop AKP, but not for free. The problem is that HDP and MHP hate each other, and CHP are too Kemalist to find dealing with the Kurds easy. If not for Erdogan, HDP and AKP would be a natural coalition. Hopefully,  HDP will be able to strengthen the non-Erdogan forces in AKP.

There's also the scenario all the Turks I know ardently believe in: AKP without majority = military coup within 6 months.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

76.8% reporting

AK  42.6%  264
CHP  24.7% 127
MHP 16.9% 83
HDP 11.3% 76

[Donnie]

Final Prediction:

AKP   43%
CHP   27%
MHP  16%
HDP  11%

With 82,1% counted:
AKP   42,8%
CHP   24,7%
MHP  17,0%
HDP  11,1%
it will be close......

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

76.8% reporting

AK  42.6%  264
CHP  24.7% 127 +1
MHP 16.9% 83 -2
HDP 11.3% 76 +1

Change from last reporting

[Insula Dei]

BTW, don't current totals already include the expat vote? If not, the AKP might expect a little bump when those are added.