Turkish general election, June 7th 2015

[minionofmidas]

DSP and CHP. Two parties (for a time), one vote base, one ideological current.


Anyways, looking over the results, the DHP completely cleaned the AKP's clock in Kurdistan, while its much heralded breakthrough in the cities is a thing, of sorts, but quite a minor thing. So Kobane lost the AKP the election.

[Velasco]

I would agree but that doesn't have anything to do with the point I made.

The example I use to demonstrate the MHP's lack of ideology was from the 90s, the AKP didn't exist then and the CHP was irrelevant at the time.

The MHP is more moderate and pragmatic under his current leader Devlet Bahceli than it was in times of Alparslan Turkes. Also, some islamist conservatives (the Gulen movement, for instance) have apparently switched from AKP to MHP as a result of Erdogan's 'nastiness'. However, there is a great difference between cultivating a relatively pragmatic and moderate image and "lack of ideology". The MHP is a hardcore right-wing nationalist party and it's not strange that they joined coalition governments with Kemalists like Bülent Ecevit, because both MHP and CHP/DSP are above all Turkish nationalists (besides, the 'leftism' of the latter is very relative) and don't like the Kurds and other "enemies of the Turkish nation". Remember that Ecevit won the 1999 election on the wake of Ocalan's arrest.

On the 'gentler' MHP's image (if we are going to make comparisons, the MHP drive looks more similar to present day FN than the Golden Shower, that is to say not openly nazi but somewhat fascist):

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/02/erdogan-mhp-election-gray-wolf-turkey.html#


As for the MHP and the left, I'll copy a paragraph from Turkey's Alevi Enigma: A Comprehensive Overview by Paul Joseph White (found via Google books):

"The antagonism between Turkists and leftists is a prominent theme of MHP ideology (...) In the MHP ideology the leftists do not have their own content, they exist only as a negative of Turkishness. They are branded as enemies of Turkey, the state and the Turkish race and a struggle against leftists becomes a struggle for the Turkish nation in which one must not hesitate to kill if necessary."

Perhaps the MHP does not openly advocate violence against leftists in the present day (Demirtas was stoned or insulted in the presidential campaign when visiting nationalist strongholds), but for sure it didn't leave the advocacy of 'Turkishness'.

 

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Weirdly enough the Felicity Party tried to ally with the MHP for this election. I always reckoned the MHP was more of the secular nationalist variety.

[Ebsy]

Wait, what? A crucial election in a major country that actually doesn't end up in the worst conceivable way? How is that possible?

I was thinking that as well.

[Famous Mortimer]

Weirdly enough the Felicity Party tried to ally with the MHP for this election. I always reckoned the MHP was more of the secular nationalist variety.

This is why I don't even understand the MHP's existence. If they're secular, how does secular conservatism have such a big following in a poor country? If they're religious, why don't their supporters just vote for the AKP?

[H. Ross Peron]

Wait, what? A crucial election in a major country that actually doesn't end up in the worst conceivable way? How is that possible?

[Zanas]

If they're secular, how does secular conservatism nationalism have such a big following in a poor country?

You may have heard of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk.

I share Antonio and a few others' awe and amazement on the somewhat great result that this ride has delivered us. I could only dream that when I opened up this thread.

If you look closely, you can see that MHP actually won a plurality in one country abroad : Albania, which must probably be hilarious for reasons, though the vote was pretty evenly split.

Does someone have an explanation as to why HDP swept GB, Switzerland and Italy, whereas AKP swept France, Germany and the other relevant Western Europe countries in terms of voter registration ? Kurds as opposed to no Kurds ? Also, I'm suprised there are only a grand total of ~600 votes cast in Greece, and HDP-CHP-AKP are basically even.

Well, let's see what's next.

[Famous Mortimer]

If they're secular, how does secular conservatism nationalism have such a big following in a poor country?

You may have heard of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk.

Of course but there's already a party for secular nationalists, the CHP. I don't get why a secular nationalists would go for the MHP instead. Presumably because they are conservatives but I'm just having a hard time imagining conservative and secular being that large of a demographic in a poor country. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well a thing to remember is that the MHP is not a conservative party. It is a fascist party.

[Famous Mortimer]

The thing is though, I'm not even asking what their ideology is. I'm asking what demographic votes for them.

[Velasco]

If they're secular, how does secular conservatism nationalism have such a big following in a poor country?

You may have heard of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk.

Of course but there's already a party for secular nationalists, the CHP. I don't get why a secular nationalists would go for the MHP instead. Presumably because they are conservatives but I'm just having a hard time imagining conservative and secular being that large of a demographic in a poor country. 

Just to clarify things, "secular conservatives" used to vote parties like the DYP or the more nationalistic ANAP. Nowadays the Kemalist conservatives are represented by the Democratic Party or DP, which in last elections got a ridiculous share of vote arguably because a a majority of voters who identify with Kemalism back the present incarnation of the CHP. The MHP is not a Kemalist party, it follows the principles of a certain far-right extremist called Alparslan Türkes. I don't claim to be an expert, but it seems clear that CHP and MHP demographics are different. While the CHP base of support is said to be among the most "secular", "liberal" and "westernized" (albeit strongly nationalistic) sectors of the population, the MHP has...

http://www.newsweek.com/what-stake-turkish-elections-339874

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If you read the article, you will notice the MHP's stances on issues like Cyprus and policies toward Syrian refugees.

If you want to know more about the Islamist and Nationalist traditions in Turkish politics and their base of support, try this:

http://www.rubincenter.org/meria/2002/03/akgun.pdf

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[minionofmidas]

If they're secular, how does secular conservatism nationalism have such a big following in a poor country?

You may have heard of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk.

Of course but there's already a party for secular nationalists, the CHP. I don't get why a secular nationalists would go for the MHP instead. Presumably because they are conservatives but I'm just having a hard time imagining conservative and secular being that large of a demographic in a poor country. 

Just to clarify things, "secular conservatives" used to vote parties like the DYP or the more nationalistic ANAP. Nowadays the Kemalist conservatives are represented by the Democratic Party or DP, which in last elections got a ridiculous share of vote arguably because a a majority of voters who identify with Kemalism back the present incarnation of the CHP.

... but mostly because a majority of voters who identify with the (original, Adnan Menderes. And thus moderate Kemalist, if you want. Or Kemalist + Democracy - open hostility to religiouses. + a new rural policy to lighten the load on smallhold farmers, back in the day. Which was probably the most important component at the time but doesn't much matter for this discussion) DP tradition vote AKP, which has been courting that tradition hard ever since being taken over by Erdogan and reinventing itself under its current name.

Really, if you think about it, the logical coalition partner for the AKP among the three on offer is the CHP, and by a country mile. Still can't really see it happen, though.

[Velasco]

... but mostly because a majority of voters who identify with the (original, Adnan Menderes. And thus moderate Kemalist, if you want. Or Kemalist + Democracy - open hostility to religiouses. + a new rural policy to lighten the load on smallhold farmers, back in the day. Which was probably the most important component at the time but doesn't much matter for this discussion) DP tradition vote AKP, which has been courting that tradition hard ever since being taken over by Erdogan and reinventing itself under its current name.

Really, if you think about it, the logical coalition partner for the AKP among the three on offer is the CHP, and by a country mile. Still can't really see it happen, though.

Probably your point is correct, but in any case the Adnan Menderes' DP and the party which currently holds that name are different outfits. From the little that I know, my impression is that the base of the former DYP was more "urban" and "liberal" and could fit better in the CHP, while former ANAP voters switched to AKP since 2002 onwards. I'm afraid that Erdogan is going to court the MHP fascists, oth.

[minionofmidas]

Well duh. We all know how it ended for Menderes. I am talking in the terms of a political current - a tradition - here, not a party organization. Worth noting the DYP used the Menderes Democrats' horse symbol (which is essentially a Robin Hood symbol ... not all that befitting the latter-day DYP. )

[The Mikado]

Really, if you think about it, the logical coalition partner for the AKP among the three on offer is the CHP, and by a country mile. Still can't really see it happen, though.

Wouldn't coalescing with the AKP be the kiss of death for the CHP, given that opposition to the AKP is one of their electorate's most strongly-held positions?

[minionofmidas]

Really, if you think about it, the logical coalition partner for the AKP among the three on offer is the CHP, and by a country mile. Still can't really see it happen, though.

Wouldn't coalescing with the AKP be the kiss of death for the CHP, given that opposition to the AKP is one of their electorate's most strongly-held positions?

Kiss of death is probably too harsh, but yes the CHP knows that coalescing with the AKP is not going to go over well (it would at the least have to look like a Grand Coalition... and even that is probably better for the AKP in the long run... but I can't see Erdogan climbing that far down from his high horse, either.) I was using polite understatement when I said "can't really see it".
But would joining the government be good for the MHP? It certainly wouldn't be good for HDP.

[ingemann]

If they're secular, how does secular conservatism nationalism have such a big following in a poor country?

You may have heard of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk.

I share Antonio and a few others' awe and amazement on the somewhat great result that this ride has delivered us. I could only dream that when I opened up this thread.

If you look closely, you can see that MHP actually won a plurality in one country abroad : Albania, which must probably be hilarious for reasons, though the vote was pretty evenly split.

Does someone have an explanation as to why HDP swept GB, Switzerland and Italy, whereas AKP swept France, Germany and the other relevant Western Europe countries in terms of voter registration ? Kurds as opposed to no Kurds ? Also, I'm suprised there are only a grand total of ~600 votes cast in Greece, and HDP-CHP-AKP are basically even.

Well, let's see what's next.

Well this is only a guess based on my interaction with "Turkish" immigrants and descendants in Denmark. Most of them I have known have been Kurds, and if they found the Kurdish cause important they have often given up their Turkish citizenship for a European one to avoid conscription into the Turkish army, where they risked having to fight in the Kurdish areas. This also mean that they can't vote in Turkey. Secular Turks and Kurds also tend to integrate into European societies and in general do better (like lower criminality rate), which increase the likelihood of them being able to get a European citizenship. So to large extent non-AKP voters are removed. On the other in countries where dual citizenship are allowed you could imagine that other parties would do better, as a European citizenship doesn't remove their right to vote in Turkey.

[Famous Mortimer]

Coalition talks still on going. There's talk of a grand coalition between the AKP and the CHP. As well as talk of new elections.

[politicus]

The AKP/CHP coalition talks are not going well. By all accounts Erdogan favours snap elections and CHP deputy leader Deniz Baykal says he sees elections in November as more likely than a grand coalition.

http://politics.bgnnews.com/turkeys-main-opposition-says-that-snap-election-becoming-inevitable-haberi/7917

"The AK Party does not want to form a government. The coalition talks are just theatre. There will be an election in November."