Turkish general election, June 7th 2015

[jaichind]

This entire system of the 10% threshold but does not apply to independents is a bit weird.  I think in 2007 and 2011 the Kurdish BDP actually had their candidates run as independents and then rejoin BDP after taking their seats.  What is also interesting about the 10% is that AKP actually gained vote share in 2007 from 2002 and 2011 from 2007 but lost seats in both 2007 and 2011 due to the massive distortion of the 2002 election handing AKP massive number of seats with a fairly small 34% of the vote. 

This time around I guess AKP will be in the lower 40s so unless HDP does not cross the 10% threshold which I doubt after all these bombings, we will have a deadlock.  I am not sure what the official position of MHP and HDP going into a post-election alliance but I suspect it will be very awkward.  But CHP, MHP and HDP all hate AKP so I am not sure how government formation will take place.  I guess HDP will break ranks and ally with AKP ? Given the political affects it does not seem to me that the AKP is responsible for the blasts since all that will do is to make sure the Kurdish vote consolidates around HDP and deny AKP its majority. 

[jaichind]

MetroPoll Arastirma tweets result of its May poll, showing AKP support at 42.8%, CHP at 27%, MHP at 17.1% and HDP at 9.2%, with the latter missing the threshold necessary to gain representation in parliament.

[jaichind]

Gezici poll

AKP          38.2
CHP          30.1
MHP          17.1
HDP          10.5

[jaichind]

Andy-Ar poll


AKP           41.9
CHP           25.8
MHP           16
HDP           10.7

[jaichind]

Gezici poll

AKP          39.1
CHP          28.7
MHP         17.1
HDP          12.5

HDP gaining a bit from last poll

[jaichind]

It seems that Erdogan is burning all bridges to get to the 330 or 60% of seats.  He seems to be gambling on a massive turnout to push HDP below 10% and hope that AKP beats CHP+MHP by a good margin. Neither looks like a good bet right now.  But whereas before there when AKP does not get a majority there was a good shot for AKP to stay in power by forming a coalition that way Erdogan is running this campaign he is asking for CHP+MHP+HDP to gang up on AKP after the election.  I guess it is all or nothing now for Erdogan.

[jaichind]

Looks like there is a ban on polls 10 days before the election which is today.  So I guess AKP will enter this period polling in the low 40s.  Even if this is an underestimate by a couple of percentage points I do not see how AKP gets to 330 seats even if HDP does not cross 10%.

[jaichind]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-32964616

Turkish president challenges opponent to 'find golden toilet seat'.  CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu accused Erdogan of excessive spending of taxpayers' money on luxuries, including gold-plated toilet seats.   Erdogan invites opponent to inspect for gold in palace toilets

[jaichind]

My prediction

AKP   42%
CHP   26.5%
MHP  17.5%
HDP  10.5%

[jaichind]

Erdogan stated earlier in the day that turnout "appears high."

[jaichind]

Voting ends.  But the Supreme Electoral Council of Turkey website http://www.ysk.gov.tr/ seems to be down.

[jaichind]

Reporting of any results prohibited until Supreme Elections Board, or YSK, lifts discretionary ban

[jaichind]

Hundreds of photos of cars without license plates parked at polling stations circulate on social media, making it a trending topic on Twitter in Turkey

[jaichind]

http://www.dailysabah.com/elections/2015/06/07/social-media-post-exposes-hdp-voter-cheating-in-turkeys-general-elections

There is a story about HDP supporter stuffing ballot boxes

[jaichind]

In the meantime,  http://www.ysk.gov.tr/ is still down for me.  Most likely there is so many hits that it went down due to capacity issues.

[jaichind]

TURKEY'S CIHAN NEWS AGENCY REPORTS HEAVY CYBER ATTACK: DIKEN

Perhaps this explains why  http://www.ysk.gov.tr/ is down ?

[jaichind]

OK, sooo when are we going to see some prelim or partial results ?

[jaichind]

At this point I think they're going to count all the votes and then just release them all at once.

But at this rate that will be several hours from now

[jaichind]

CNN-TURK reports that 25% of votes counted.

[jaichind]

Thanks.  I checked.  Sabah seems to have

Party 1    48.32
Party 2    21.69
Party 3    17.91
Party 4      8.21

Turnout 83.53

[jaichind]

Yeni Şafak has

Party 1    47.3
Party 2    22.4
Party 3    17.8
Party 4      8.6

31% counted

[jaichind]

Looks like AKP support is going down slightly as the count continues.  HDP going up.  HDP crossing 10% will be close.

[jaichind]

This entire reporting method is so absurd.  There is a lockdown on results but some media outlets can report party 1 2 3 4 and it is clear which party is 1 2 3 and 4.

[jaichind]

41.73 counted

Party 1   46.07
Party 2   23.34
Party 3   17.58
Party 4    9.01

[jaichind]

43.24 counted

Party 1   45.93
Party 2   23.43
Party 3   17.55
Party 4    9.06