Turkish general election, June 7th 2015

[Insula Dei]

Looking very iffy for HDP. That said, opposition strongholds seem to be mostly underreporting relative to the AKP's heartlands, so they might just scrape in.

[Insula Dei]

For example:

Van: 11,9% reporting
Hakkari: 16.9% reporting
Tun: 21.6% reporting

With 38% counted nationally.

[Insula Dei]

HDP beginning to look a lot better. There's a LOT of votes left to be counted in the East and Istanbul isn't going to push them below 10%.

[Insula Dei]

YeniSafak says:

Parti 1: 274
Parti 2: 120
Parti 3:  87
Parti 4:  69

AKP barely missing out on majority.

[Insula Dei]

YeniSafak says:

Parti 1: 274
Parti 2: 120
Parti 3:  87
Parti 4:  69

Barest of majorities for AKP.

He would be 2 seats short of a majority if this holds

Yeah, fixed that. The Yeni Safak graph wasn't very clear.

[Insula Dei]

This is very close but IF HDP gets in, it's very hard to see how AKP gets a majority, right?

[Insula Dei]

FWIW, Yeni Safak has:

AKP 272
CHP 121
MHP  87
HDP  70

With 66.8% reporting.

[Insula Dei]

If the AKP is denied a majority, will the other parties form an anti-Erdogan coalition or will one of the opposition parties prop up an AKP minority/form a coalition with the AKP? Or is it too early to tell?

My understanding is that it's very difficult to see a broad anti-AKP coalition because that would require the Kurds to work with the Kemalists and the ultra-nationalists, which looks unlikely, but that it is also difficult to see any of them propping up the AKP, especially with the AKP's handling of Kobani in the back of people's minds.

[Insula Dei]

If the AKP is denied a majority, will the other parties form an anti-Erdogan coalition or will one of the opposition parties prop up an AKP minority/form a coalition with the AKP? Or is it too early to tell?

Most likely HDP will prop AKP, but not for free. The problem is that HDP and MHP hate each other, and CHP are too Kemalist to find dealing with the Kurds easy. If not for Erdogan, HDP and AKP would be a natural coalition. Hopefully,  HDP will be able to strengthen the non-Erdogan forces in AKP.

There's also the scenario all the Turks I know ardently believe in: AKP without majority = military coup within 6 months.

[Insula Dei]

BTW, don't current totals already include the expat vote? If not, the AKP might expect a little bump when those are added.

[Insula Dei]

Is there a majority bonus? I see AKP is getting a higher share of seats that its results would entail. I thought Turkey used unaltered PR (although with an insanely high threshold).

There's also quite a few 2 or 3-seat constituencies, which benefit large parties.