"If 1 in 10 Labour voters don't vote..."

[2952-0-0]

Realsitically, where did Blair get the math that the Tories win? What happens if 1 in 10 Labour voters don't vote? YOu can't assume the swing in every district will be exactly the same.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The assumption is that such a swing will not be uniform

[Lt. Gov. Immy]

The assumption is that such a swing will not be uniform

Okay, maybe its the fact that I'm up at 2 in the morning writing an excruciating paper on social security reform, but I don't understand this.  Could you please explain.

[minionofmidas]

On a uniform swing, even that wouldn't hurt Labour much.
If they're in just the right constituencies, it might.
Of course, those are not really the constituencies this thing is aimed at.

[Lt. Gov. Immy]

On a uniform swing, even that wouldn't hurt Labour much.
If they're in just the right constituencies, it might.
Of course, those are not really the constituencies this thing is aimed at.

Okay, so basically 10% of Labour voters don't show up and they all happen to be from seats that their abscence makes the Tories pick up the seat?  Wow, that kind of seems odd to me.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If 1 in 500 Bush voters didn't vote, Kerry would be President. Of coruse most of those voters would have to be in Ohio.

[afleitch]

The 1 in 10 claim has already been slammed as mis representative at least and at most blatantly wrong.

[Silent Hunter]

The 1 in 10 claim may not be true on a national scale, but it certainly is in my constituency.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If 1 in 90,000 Bush 2000 voters didn't vote, Al Gore would have officially won
1 in 300,000 or so and he would have led  when they ended the recount.