United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership

[Velasco]

Just remember that the vision of Europe she died defending is not the one of David Cameron.

[Pandaguineapig]

A lot of the momentum discussion is overblown this will probably be 50/50 on Thursday

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There is still every possibility that the polls are completely wrong. Referendums are hard enough to poll as it is, especially one that would seem to be falling completely outside of traditional party lines, meaning party loyalty is not much use as an indicator of how people might vote.

Correct. And because they're basically incompetent and rely on some very very dated assumptions about social structure, polling companies here are only as comparatively 'accurate' in elections as they are because they mess around very heavily based on partisan habits of respondents etc. Which just about works, almost, for actual elections. Will it for a referendum when partisanship really isn't a massive factor?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

And of course they haven't even been counted yet (information gained from the verification process would be limited and unreliable. And, yes, quite illegal to disclose). I suspect we're going to be hearing a lot of dubious claims and rumours of questionable repute over the next few days.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

and is replaced by Johnson, who probably calls a quick "khaki" general election.

Thanks to a very stupid law passed by this government during its first term it is no longer so easy to call a snap election. It would be necessary to persuade the opposition parties to agree to a dissolution of parliament. Or to repeal the relevant act. By which term the moment (if there even were one) could easily be gone. Particularly as the electorate has traditionally not taken kindly to snap elections.

[IceAgeComing]

They could technically amend the Fixed Term Parliaments Act to get rid of the two-thirds vote requirement for the early election motion and then pass that; or just manufacture a confidence vote loss and then wait out the two week period when an early election would be allowed by the Act, but that would give the opposition parties increased time to prepare for an early election than they would have had before it was passed.  Both of those things would take time to do - the first especially, since it'd have to go through the Lords where the Tories don't have a majority.  I don't think that the electorate would like either; since they both seem rather opportunistic...

That's why Cameron probably doesn't like how this turned out: I think that he initially would have wanted to go until 2019 and then brought in a new leader then who still theoretically should have been in their honeymoon phase when the election came, while now that's not going to happen and a new leader will be hanging around for a few years before the next election, probably getting rather unpopular.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/06/20/eu-referendum-leave-lead-two/ Not sure if anyone posted, Yougov now has Leave with a 2 point lead

[Dutch Conservative]

I might sound terrible for this, but could it be that the murder of MP Jo Cox might have had swayed people to support Remain? Because the polls after her murder show support for Brexit dropping and Remain rising.

Yes. It seems fairly likely that this is the case. I imagine it's not so much people switching their opinions, but "soft" remain supporters becoming more vocal and likely to vote.

I also think it gave a bit of momentum to the remain camp. But YouGov has its poll exactly the same again as before the murder. Remain/leave 42/44. Essentially a tie. A good performance tonight could help the leave camp.

I agree that referenda are hard to poll/predict. Here in the Netherlands, the referendum about the Ukrain-treaty had the 'no' camp underperforming in polls significantly. Although you cant really compare this, the problem is the same: who is going to vote? I still think the leave camp is more enthousiastic.

My prediction: leave/remain - 53/47.

[Pandaguineapig]

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/06/20/eu-referendum-leave-lead-two/ Not sure if anyone posted, Yougov now has Leave with a 2 point lead

Only 2 polls showed remain ahead and yougov was one of them, this could be a long election night

[morgieb]

Remain: 52%
Leave: 48%

Turnout: 58%

[Clyde1998]

I'll predict:

Remain - 49%
Leave - 51%

Turnout - 75%

[AuH2O Republican]

Remain: 52%
Leave: 48%

Turnout: 58%

I second this prediction, although turnout will be 70-80%. Obviously a poor barometer, but it seems a lot of people I speak to and are on my Facebook are very apolitical and voting for the first time ever.

[Serenity Now]

Below are a few demographic maps which may be useful to refer to when watching the results come in. I don't wish to imply that these groups are likely to show a particular preference at this stage (except for maybe students and the over 60s) but they could turn out to be relevant.

I'll add some more later (I'll do requests).

Over 60s (as % of voting age population)


Full-time students (as % of people aged 16 to 74)


English only identity (as % of all usual residents)


British only identity (as % of all usual residents)


No passport (as % of all usual residents)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Leave percentage in all polls published since the 16th, newest first:

44% - Survation
44% - YouGov
46% - ORB*
42% - Survation
43% - YouGov
44% - Opinium

_{*Much smaller undecided proportion than other surveys.}

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Looking at age breakdowns, I bet Cameron is regretting not lowering the voting age for this one.

[Hnv1]

Remain 52 Leave 48, all of my British mates from London are voting remain with all my chav friends fro the home counties voting leave. I reckon it'll be closer than predicted.
Remain win in: London, Cornwall, North East (by small margin), Scotland, NI, Wales (by a razor thin margin). Leave wins the rest.

Cameron still ousted within a year and Ukip will have a field day with the remain victory relying on the 'celtic' vote

The North-West (Liverpool, Manchester) is more likely to be Remain than Cornwall.

I know the EU splashed some cash in Cornwall to combat poverty in all sorts of programmes, and in a similar area of Wales with equal figures (low government spending, high EU spending) polls showed the voters leaning hard to remain. Add a distinct Cornish identity in this English campaign and you got the reasons I think Cornwall will vote remain

[Max Stirner]

Leave 55

[Velasco]

I have read that, despite EU subsidies, Cornwall is amongst the most Euroesceptic regions.

[ChrisDR68]

I have read that, despite EU subsidies, Cornwall is amongst the most Euroesceptic regions.

Cornwall isn't an official region though.

It's part of the South West which in my opinion will be one of the strongest Leave regions (together with the East Midlands and Eastern (East Anglia).

All three have an older population than the average (looking at the maps shown above) and the few local opinion polls I've seen back up their preferences for Brexit.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I've been told by many canvassers and local activist that around 70% of the households here in Plymouth are voting Leave.

Though a massive figure like that may just indicate that the canvassing data is dodgy.

[afleitch]

I have read that, despite EU subsidies, Cornwall is amongst the most Euroesceptic regions.

Cornwallondon is difficult to judge on these things.

[Crumpets]

This is my optimistic prediction:

Remain - 53%
Leave - 47%

[Dutch Conservative]

Good debate tonight. Both sides made their points. I found the Leave camp a bit better organised and coordinated, with their central theme: take back control. The last words of Johnson were great: thursday can be our independence day. Ruth Davidson had a strong performance.

[Velasco]

I have read that, despite EU subsidies, Cornwall is amongst the most Euroesceptic regions.

Cornwallondon is difficult to judge on these things.

Possibly that cleavage between Eurosceptics and Europhiles explains little about the feelings of common people from anywhere.

[Zanas]

Remain 54.5 %
Leave 45.5 %

Turnout : 63.5 %

Yes, I am snob like that.

[ag]

It will be 50-50 and will go through 35 recounts